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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
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|Sunrise 6:20AM||Sunset 8:46PM||Thursday July 29, 2021 2:08 AM MDT (08:08 UTC)||Moonrise 11:04PM||Moonset 11:11AM||Illumination 75%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Samak, UTHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KSLC 282206 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 406 PM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021
SYNOPSIS. With high pressure settled east of the area, a monsoonal moisture surge will remain across Utah and southwest Wyoming through the week and into the weekend. This will result in an extended period of thunderstorm chances with a heavy rain threat, along with temperatures trending slightly below normal.
SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Saturday). Day 2 of a period of elevated thunderstorm potential is ongoing. Several storms this afternoon have had significant radar estimates, though ground truth from gauges has been limited. Plentiful moisture is present, as evidenced by widespread dewpoints above 50F and the 12Z morning sounding at 1.27" which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year. That is only one of several necessary ingredients for thunderstorms however, the other two being instability/buoyancy and an upper-level forcing mechanism (e.g. shortwave trough or boundary). On the instability/buoyancy side, the SPC mesoanalysis shows widespread 500-1000 J/KG which is modest for our area. On the forcing side meanwhile, there is little to nothing to pick out with the broad high pressure cell residing to our east and light southerly flow aloft over the area. Thus, we've seen another day of convection initiating over the higher terrain, but struggling to hold together into valleys. For what it's worth, high-res models do show convection moving off the terrain this evening, though it will be weakening as it does so. Thus, the heavy rain concern this afternoon and evening remains limited to the higher terrain and especially any recent burn scars.
Looking ahead, moisture will remain pooled over the eastern Great Basin as south to southeasterly flow aloft remains in place. Instability/buoyancy does increase each day, as well as becoming less confined to high terrain. For the third ingredient, we do see a weak shortwave Thursday afternoon and a weak wind max aloft Sunday. High-res models (through Friday) and global ensembles (into the weekend and beyond) do show a continued upward trend in coverage of showers/thunderstorms, with precipitation chances increasing each day and eventually peaking on Sunday. Expecting widespread coverage of showers/thunderstorms in the mountains, and eventually scattered coverage in valleys as well. While the National Blend of Models have eye-popping valley PoPs for us for the summer (70%+), it's worth keeping in mind that this is only the probability of 0.01" in a 12 hour period, which can happen with a weak shower. The NBM's daily chances for beneficial rain (>0.25") are not as robust, only in the 20-40% range in the valleys and 50-70% range in the mountains of northern Utah and into southwest Wyoming. Thus, while it will be welcomed moisture with these showers and thunderstorms, its unlikely to be a drought busting event. Nevertheless, there will still be potential for localized heavy rain and flash flooding if/when, and where enough clearing and heating is realized
Temperatures will finally be cooler than average this weekend and into the start of next week. Highs are expected to be 5-10F cooler than average for many places, and Salt Lake City is expected to only have highs in the upper 80s this weekend.
Ensembles remain in good agreement into the start of next week that a wave will move through the Northern Rockies Monday, shifting the ridge axis orientation, and re-centering the mid-level high center to our southwest. This will usher in slightly drier, more westerly flow next week. Residual moisture, particularly in the low levels from the recent moisture surge and rains, will be slow to exit despite the drier mid and upper level air moving in more freely. Thus expect to see daily shower and thunderstorms chances remain into the first half of next week, however they will trend more scattered to isolated and more tied to the terrain as the moisture wanes.
AVIATION. KSLC . VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Northwest winds should switch to diurnal southeast winds around 03z. Vicinity showers and possibly a thunderstorm may impact the terminal between 22-03z with periods of gusty and erratic winds.
Rest of Utah and southwest Wyoming . Widespread VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period as showers and thunderstorms come to a close after 03z. Erratic outflow winds will continue to be the primary aviation concern, followed by the potential for brief locally heavy rain should a storm impact a terminal directly, until about 03z.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. UT . None. WY . None.
For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php
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