Sunday, January17, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Samak, UT

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 5:28PM Saturday January 16, 2021 10:20 PM MST (05:20 UTC) Moonrise 10:18AMMoonset 9:17PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Samak, UT
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Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 162256 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 356 PM MST Sat Jan 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will continue to build into the region today. A weak system will impact portions of Utah later this weekend into early next week. Gusty downslope winds will be possible late Monday into Tuesday morning across portions of the Wasatch Front.

SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Wednesday). High pressure continues to build into the region this afternoon. Two digging shortwaves will cross the western United States Sunday night into Monday. The first, well to the west of Utah, will bring a weak front through the state Sunday night into early Monday. Aside from relatively weak cold air advection . this front may bring a few snow showers to the higher terrain of Utah.

The second digging shortwave, more continental, moving southward from Montana and the Canadian prairie provinces, may be more impactful to the state as the trajectory will favor a period of downslope winds across Weber, Davis and Salt Lake Counties Monday night into Tuesday morning. This is a more complicated set-up than usual as the first shortwave will be in the process of closing off near the California Coast and will eventually incorporate the second circulation into the strengthening low. This complicated process keeps confidence lower than usual and has likely introduced a number of run to run and model to model consistency issues.

Looking at the broad range of model guidance available, much of the envelope suggested easterly 700MB flow of ~40kts will be present across northern Utah Monday night into Tuesday. This will be colocated with low to mid level cold air advection as the airmass over Wyoming will be around 2-3C colder than over northern Utah. Looking at cross sections of the major available models for this time period shows the potential for an induced critical layer, which would allow for breaking mountain waves and thus a downslope wind event. As mentioned previously, the overall pattern development is lower confidence than average. For now, the forecast contains high end advisory wind gusts in the normally prone locations of Davis and Weber Counties (particularly Centerville and Farmington). It is possible these areas will see warning level winds . but do not have the confidence to go with those values at this time.

The takeaway message is that those in the normally prone downslope wind areas in Davis, Weber and Salt Lake County should continue to monitor the forecast over the next several. An important note: this event does not look nearly as strong as the September 8, 2020 event, nor as widespread.

As the potential downslope winds decrease across northern Utah Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, the potential will increase for a period of enhanced, moist upslope flow across portions of south central and southeastern Utah Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. For now, trended toward more widespread precipitation in this area but if model trends continue, this will need to be increased further.

LONG TERM (After 12Z Wednesday). The closed low that will bring the windy conditions to portions of the state Tuesday will continue to drift southward along the Baja coast. This will leave Utah and Uinta county Wyoming in no mans land between the dissipating low and the active jet stream to our north for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will generally be slightly above normal during this time along with very light winds.

The ensemble means from the Canadian/GFS/EC are in good agreement on bring the long wave trough into the western CONUS late Friday through the weekend. Three of the four cluster solutions show this scenario while there still remains about a 25% chance of the trough remaining farther west along or just off the West Coast. With the higher confidence in the models coming together, especially the EC/Canadian favoring a slightly slower development, have updated the long term forecast to slow the onset of precip into the CWA from Thursday until Thursday night, and these are rather low PoPs. The EC EPS 24-hr precipitation 50th percentile actually holds off any precip until after 00Z Friday.

The details of course become somewhat scrambled at this time range but the overall idea of a 700mb baroclinic zone moving into the state and then stalling seems to be consistent between models. The timing of when this happens, Friday night or Saturday and how far east will determine whether snow, snow mixed with rain, or rain occurs initially along the Wasatch Front and some other western valleys. Have adjusted daytime temps down Friday and Saturday with the likelihood of widespread cloud cover and precip and raised Friday night temps as forecast appeared too cold with mountains forecast to be in the low teens. Because of the slow movement and depth of this system there is a chance for it to tap into sub tropical moisture and bring an extended period of precip across the region. Consequently, this should be our best chance for moderate widespread precip amounts in a very long time.

AVIATION. Minimal weather concerns are forecast for the SLC terminal through the TAF period. Northwest winds will shift from northwest this afternoon to southeast at about 03-04Z this evening.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. UT . None. WY . None.

Kruse/Struthwolf

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for K36U

Wind History from 36U (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE6E3N5E3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7S11
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1 day agoSW6CalmE5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW4W4SW10SW9SW9
2 days agoE5E4SE5E4NE8E8CalmN9N9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.