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Marine Weather and Tides Samak, UT Version 3.4

NOTICE 8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it. 8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue. 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:45AM

Sunset 5:28PM

Saturday January 16, 2021 10:20 PM MST (05:20 UTC)

Moonrise 10:18AM

Moonset 9:17PM

Illumination 15%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Samak, UT

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Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 162256 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 356 PM MST Sat Jan 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will continue to build into the region today. A weak system will impact portions of Utah later this weekend into early next week. Gusty downslope winds will be possible late Monday into Tuesday morning across portions of the Wasatch Front.

SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Wednesday). High pressure continues to build into the region this afternoon. Two digging shortwaves will cross the western United States Sunday night into Monday. The first, well to the west of Utah, will bring a weak front through the state Sunday night into early Monday. Aside from relatively weak cold air advection . this front may bring a few snow showers to the higher terrain of Utah.

The second digging shortwave, more continental, moving southward from Montana and the Canadian prairie provinces, may be more impactful to the state as the trajectory will favor a period of downslope winds across Weber, Davis and Salt Lake Counties Monday night into Tuesday morning. This is a more complicated set-up than usual as the first shortwave will be in the process of closing off near the California Coast and will eventually incorporate the second circulation into the strengthening low. This complicated process keeps confidence lower than usual and has likely introduced a number of run to run and model to model consistency issues.

Looking at the broad range of model guidance available, much of the envelope suggested easterly 700MB flow of ~40kts will be present across northern Utah Monday night into Tuesday. This will be colocated with low to mid level cold air advection as the airmass over Wyoming will be around 2-3C colder than over northern Utah. Looking at cross sections of the major available models for this time period shows the potential for an induced critical layer, which would allow for breaking mountain waves and thus a downslope wind event. As mentioned previously, the overall pattern development is lower confidence than average. For now, the forecast contains high end advisory wind gusts in the normally prone locations of Davis and Weber Counties (particularly Centerville and Farmington). It is possible these areas will see warning level winds . but do not have the confidence to go with those values at this time.

The takeaway message is that those in the normally prone downslope wind areas in Davis, Weber and Salt Lake County should continue to monitor the forecast over the next several. An important note: this event does not look nearly as strong as the September 8, 2020 event, nor as widespread.

As the potential downslope winds decrease across northern Utah Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, the potential will increase for a period of enhanced, moist upslope flow across portions of south central and southeastern Utah Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. For now, trended toward more widespread precipitation in this area but if model trends continue, this will need to be increased further.

LONG TERM (After 12Z Wednesday). The closed low that will bring the windy conditions to portions of the state Tuesday will continue to drift southward along the Baja coast. This will leave Utah and Uinta county Wyoming in no mans land between the dissipating low and the active jet stream to our north for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will generally be slightly above normal during this time along with very light winds.

The ensemble means from the Canadian/GFS/EC are in good agreement on bring the long wave trough into the western CONUS late Friday through the weekend. Three of the four cluster solutions show this scenario while there still remains about a 25% chance of the trough remaining farther west along or just off the West Coast. With the higher confidence in the models coming together, especially the EC/Canadian favoring a slightly slower development, have updated the long term forecast to slow the onset of precip into the CWA from Thursday until Thursday night, and these are rather low PoPs. The EC EPS 24-hr precipitation 50th percentile actually holds off any precip until after 00Z Friday.

The details of course become somewhat scrambled at this time range but the overall idea of a 700mb baroclinic zone moving into the state and then stalling seems to be consistent between models. The timing of when this happens, Friday night or Saturday and how far east will determine whether snow, snow mixed with rain, or rain occurs initially along the Wasatch Front and some other western valleys. Have adjusted daytime temps down Friday and Saturday with the likelihood of widespread cloud cover and precip and raised Friday night temps as forecast appeared too cold with mountains forecast to be in the low teens. Because of the slow movement and depth of this system there is a chance for it to tap into sub tropical moisture and bring an extended period of precip across the region. Consequently, this should be our best chance for moderate widespread precip amounts in a very long time.

AVIATION. Minimal weather concerns are forecast for the SLC terminal through the TAF period. Northwest winds will shift from northwest this afternoon to southeast at about 03-04Z this evening.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. UT . None. WY . None.

Kruse/Struthwolf

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure

Link to 5 minute data for K36U

Wind History from 36U (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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