Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Freeport, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Through tonight, in addition to ocean dense fog, fog could redevelop once again across other waters and may move into parts of the coastline east of NYC.

2) For early this week, a warmer airmass develops. Expect daytime temperatures to be warmer than normal. Possible fog for night into early morning, particularly Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

3) A strong frontal system impacts the area Wednesday Night into Thursday with the next chance for showers followed by more seasonably cool air to end next week.

4) Additional light mixed precipitation is possible Friday night into Saturday from a passing Alberta Clipper system to our north.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Through tonight, besides the ocean fog, more fog could redevelop once again across the other waters and may move into parts of the coastline east of NYC.

Dense fog still present this afternoon across the ocean. This is expected to decrease somewhat into tonight but will linger especially across most eastern sections. Winds are forecast to become very light and temperatures cooling tonight will lead to near saturation in low levels once again. The lack of vertical mixing could very well help enable the formation of fog especially for those areas that still have moisture on the ground. The moisture on the ground is from residual snowmelt plus the earlier showers that traversed portions of the region.

For the forecast, put in areas of fog on the ocean waters and patchy fog across eastern sections of the region and non-ocean waters that spreads more west late tonight into early Monday morning.
However, the fog formation is expected to stay east of NYC. The forecast guidance from MOS is indicative of this fog partially and the HRRR and RAP also show fog in some of their forecasts.

KEY MESSAGE 2
For early this week, a warmer airmass develops. Expect daytime temperatures to be warmer than normal. Possible fog for night into early morning, particularly Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Locally dense fog will be possible.

High pressure will be diffuse, based in the Western Atlantic and will help allow for a SW synoptic flow that will enable warm air advection.

Models show an increase in the 850mb temperatures for the early part of this week, near 9 to 10 degrees C by late Monday afternoon and near 11 degrees C by late Tuesday afternoon.
Models have already showed signs of being underdone in terms of their high temperature forecast.

Therefore, went with higher end forecast temperatures during the day for both Monday and Tuesday, using a combination of NBM along with the NBM 75th percentile and NBM 90th percentile.
Plenty of sun along with southerly flow will help bring in this warmer air, especially away from the coast. Along the coast, temperatures will be relatively cooler with more maritime influence.

The range of highs forecast Monday are from the 50s along much of the immediate coastline to near 70 for locations north and west of NYC. The range of highs forecast Tuesday actually increases, still mostly in the 50s but some more lower 60s along parts of the coast to low to mid 70s for interior locations. Temperatures could be a few degrees warmer then forecast as indicated in the MAV guidance but did not want to lean too much towards the highest temperature guidance just yet.

See climate section for records for Monday March 9 and Tuesday March 10. Some locations may get quite close to their records especially if temperatures end up being a few degrees higher than forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3
Low pressure and an associated strong frontal system will approach the area late Wednesday ahead of a deepening upper-level trough. The system's warm front will pass on Wednesday which will lead to mainly isolated light rain. This warm front will then likely lie well to the north Wednesday night with the trailing cold front slowly making its way into the area through Thursday morning.

Chances for showers increase very late Wednesday night and then become likely Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon on Thursday. Timing of the cold front passage still varies a little in the model guidance, but there has been continued convergence of solutions towards Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon, sometime between 12Z to 18Z.

Thursday does not appear to be a washout since the area will be in the warm sector, and the showers will likely be in a band along and immediately ahead of the cold front passage with a lull in precipitation prior to the cold front on Wednesday night, especially east and at the coast.

Moderate to locally heavy downpours are possible. PWATs peak between 1.2 to 1.5" which is right at or exceeding the max moving average according to SPC's Sounding Climatology Page. While low end chances exist for isolated thunderstorms, the amount of elevated instability is uncertain and have elected to keep mention of thunder out of the forecast for now. Strong S flow ahead of the front should keep the low levels stable.

Temperatures will drop quickly behind the cold front passage.
There is a chance highs for the day occur early on if the front moves through earlier. Current forecast highs are in the 50s, but if the front is slower, then interior locations could be a bit warmer.
Temperatures should fall back into the 40s in the evening, and then potentially the upper 20s and low 30s at night. Some guidance lingers a few showers behind the front due to the passage of the upper trough. A few wet snow flakes cannot be ruled out in the colder air if any shower activity lingers Thursday evening, but by Friday night we should be well enough entrenched in dry continental air to mitigate any additional showers.

Southerly flow ahead of the front increases with a modest low level jet, but the warmer air moving over the colder waters should negate any of the higher winds from mixing to the surface. Gusts 30-35 mph are possible though Wednesday night and Thursday ahead of the front.

Seasonably cool temperatures are likely to end the week into the first half of the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 4
An Alberta clipper low swings out of Canada and into the Great Lakes region Thursday into Friday. This will pass north of the area Friday night into Saturday. This will be a much weaker system compared to the Wednesday-Thursday system.

Not expecting any significant impacts aside from light precipitation and breezy winds. A rain or a rain/snow mix at the coast and a snow or rain/snow mix in the interior.

Some guidance still varies on how far south the precipitation extends. Its possible the precip may be limited to northern interior locations with coastal locations remaining dry, but this forecast remains in flux.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Weak high pressure will build into the area tonight and remain across the area Monday.

Mainly a VFR forecast, but there could be some patchy fog and IFR/LIFR ceilings tonight. Right now, the best chance and only mention will be at KGON.

Lgt and vrb winds tngt. For Monday, SW winds less that 10 kt in the morning will increase to around 10 kt by early afternoon with gusts 15-20kt. Expect a seabreeze enhancement at KJFK in the afternoon as winds become more southerly. Winds become lgt and vrb aft 00Z all arpts.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Night: VFR. Light and VRB winds.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, MVFR or lower possible at times, especially at night with a chance of showers. S wind gusts 20-25 kt afternoon into night.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible at times with showers, mainly in the morning. Isolated thunderstorm possible. W/SW wind gusts 25-30 kt, diminishing at night.

Friday: Chance of MVFR in rain/snow showers, mainly at night. S wind gusts 20-25kt, becoming W at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Dense Fog advisory has been extended for ocean waters until 8AM EDT Monday morning.

More fog could develop tonight on other waters and also into early Monday morning as well as the next few night into early morning periods. Dense fog will be possible.

Otherwise, winds are expected to remain below SCA thresholds for all waters through Tuesday night. However, there are some higher seas across the ocean zones near 5 to 6 ft and without much of an offshore push, the higher ocean seas will linger into tonight. The SCA from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY remains until midnight. The SCA from Fire Island Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY remains until 6AM Monday.

For Monday through Tuesday night, seas are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds on all waters.

An approaching frontal system Wednesday begins to increase winds on the ocean, with widespread SCA winds Wednesday night into Thursday. There is low confidence with potential gales due to warm air moving over the colder ocean. Ocean seas will build through the period and potentially range from 8 to 12 ft. Winds and seas may begin subsiding Thursday night.

CLIMATE
Below are record high temperatures for Monday March 9th and Tuesday March 10th.

Monday March 9th: EWR: 82/2016 BDR: 64/2021 NYC: 77/2016 LGA: 75/2016,2000 JFK: 67/1973 ISP: 68/2016

Tuesday March 10th: EWR: 81/2016 BDR: 70/2006 NYC: 79/2016 LGA: 78/2016 JFK: 71/2006 ISP: 73/2016

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ355.