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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 619 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain in the evening.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sun night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.

ANZ300 619 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure builds into the area and remains in place through Thursday. A weak cold front then approaches on Friday passes through during the night. Low pressure then impacts the waters on Sunday.

FXUS61 KOKX 291121 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 621 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds into the area and remains in place through Thursday. A weak cold front then approaches on Friday and passes through during the night, weakening further nearby on Saturday. A series of lows will then impact the area from Sunday into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The forecast is mainly on track. Minor adjustments made to hourly temperatures and dewpoints for the next few hours based on trends.

Surface high pressure ridge pushes through the region today. Mostly clear early on, but some moisture below 500mb pushes in with more in the way of clouds heading into the afternoon, then clearing overnight. Winds will be lighter than what they had been the past couple of days. Remaining dry today and tonight with NBM used for temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
We'll still be under the influence of high pressure Thursday and Thursday night with a continuation of dry weather. SW winds will help lead to milder temperatures with high temps falling just short of seasonable levels.

For Friday, a weak surface cold front with increasing moisture approaches and passes through during Friday night. Dry at least through the morning. The cold front will then combine with lift from a jet streak aloft and some mid-level vorticity for rain Friday afternoon into the night. Rain amounts will be on the light side - likely under a quarter of an inch across the entire area. High temperatures will be generally around 50.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An unsettled period is likely as upper level ridging off the Southeast gives way to broad troughing moving in from the central US. Timing of various shortwaves within the trough attm suggests best chances for rain during this time will take place Sunday afternoon/night as low pressure developing near the Carolina coast passes well offshore, and again Mon afternoon/night as the trough deepens and takes on a neutral or negative tilt, and an associated sfc low passes through the Northeast and/or Mid Atlantic regions.

Temps through the period should be a little above normal, with a trend to below normal temps expected just beyond the forecast period as the last of the series of lows above pulls in colder air from the NW.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR as high pressure slowly builds to the south. High confidence in W flow backing SW this afternoon.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late tonight through Thursday night: VFR.
Friday: MVFR or lower in rain in the afternoon and evening.
Saturday: Mainly VFR.
Sunday: MVFR or lower possible, with chance of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA for the ocean waters today and tonight. There will likely be a period from late morning into the first half of the afternoon where conditions will prevail below advisory criteria. Winds and seas should then increase late in the day into tonight. After collaboration with the surrounding offices, have decided to carry the SCA through the entire period of today and tonight. There could also be occasional advisory-level gusts over some of the non-ocean waters through this morning and again tonight, but decided not to extend the SCA here as most of the area will prevail below 25kt.
After a break from advisory conditions Thursday, SCA conditions become likely again on the ocean during Thursday night into Friday morning with a tightening pressure gradient and seas building up to around 5ft.

Generally quiet conditions this weekend. Winds on the ocean could gust to 25 kt following passage of an offshore low, but forecast confidence at that time range is low to medium.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through Tuesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.

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West Fire Island
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Wed -- 04:52 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:27 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:54 AM EST     0.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:43 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:30 PM EST     0.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

West Fire Island, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Bay Shore
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Wed -- 04:24 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:27 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:10 AM EST     1.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:57 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:36 PM EST     0.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

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