Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Beach-Captree, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:28PM Sunday December 15, 2019 6:03 PM EST (23:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:07PMMoonset 11:12AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 343 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
.gale warning in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Tue..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 343 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure briefly builds over the region tonight, then drifts offshore Monday. A low pressure system approaches the region Monday and impacts the region Monday night and Tuesday before moving northeast to the northern atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. A polar front approaches Wednesday and moves across Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure moves in for Thursday through Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Beach-Captree, NY
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location: 40.66, -73.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 152139 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 439 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure briefly builds over the region tonight, then drifts offshore Monday. A low pressure system approaches the region Monday and impacts the region Monday night and Tuesday before moving northeast to the Northern Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. A polar front approaches Wednesday and moves across Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure moves in for Thursday through Friday night. The high lifts farther north of the area next weekend with possible close approach of offshore low pressure.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. High pressure will build over the region tonight with dry conditions expected. Winds will gradually weaken, becoming light and variable west of NYC, and less than 10kt elsewhere from the west. This high will keep a warm front south of the area tonight. Lows will fall into the 20s and 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Monday starts off with high pressure over the region, which will gradually shift to the east through the day. Meanwhile, a warm front will remain south of the area with precipitation gradually developing along the front.

The 12z forecast guidance, along with some of the early 18z guidance shows that much of the precipitation will struggle to move into our area as it will struggle with the dry air from the departing high to the northeast. Thinking that if any precipitation falls during the day on Monday, it will be light and mainly in the form of flurries or light snow showers.

By Monday evening, the high pressure moves far enough east to allow precipitation to push its way across the area from south to north. Even with the high nearby, signals of cold air damming will keeping cold air in place across the northern tier for much of Monday night.

In terms of precipitation type, the precipitation should start off as snow everywhere, then quickly transition to a rain/snow mix then to all rain by 06z Tuesday across NYC, Long Island and metro NJ. Elsewhere, a prolonged period of snow and a wintry mix can be expected, with snowfall totals ranging between 1-2 inches and ice accumulations up to 2 tenths of an inch. As a result, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for much of our northern zones where the highest confidence is for the snow/ice combo. For now, have left coastal CT out of the advisory as confidence is not as high and more rain may occur. Stay tuned for any additional updates as changes to the forecast may be necessary.

Temperatures on Monday will be in the 30s. Monday night, lows will be in the 20s and 30s, with lows occurring very early in the tonight period, and slowly warming through the night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. First of all, the winter weather advisory will be ongoing for interior parts of the region with some additional snow and ice accumulations during Tuesday. All precipitation tapers off Tuesday evening.

Second half of the storm event for Tuesday with the low center moving just south of the local area. 850mb freezing line will be north of the entire CWA during the day and then start to move farther southward with cold air advection on the backside of the low as it moves farther east of the area late afternoon into the evening.

The second half of the storm event will feature a continuation of a wintry mix across the interior including some additional freezing rain while the coast will remain as plain rain as dewpoints are expected to be above freezing. At the end of the event late afternoon into early evening, there could be a brief window of a rain snow mix getting farther southward towards the coast, but only minor accumulations of less than an inch of snow expected and that is across the interior with no snow accumulation expected for the coast. Highs Tuesday will be from the lower 30s across the interior to the upper 30s to lower 40s along the coast.

Conditions will become drier Tuesday night with weak high pressure from the southwest briefly building in. Clouds will decrease and NW winds will lighten. Lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s as winds will stay up enough to prevent ideal radiational cooling.

A key part to the forecast is temperatures for these went with CONSRaw for temperatures Tuesday and transitioned from CONSRaw to a blend of CONSMOS and NAM12 for Tuesday night.

For the rest of the long term, that high pressure area from the south and west will quickly way on Wednesday to an approaching polar front. This will be accompanied aloft by a very strong mid level shortwave as diagnosed from a strong positive vorticity max.

This will bring some snow shower activity, slight to low end chance Wednesday into Wednesday night. Low confidence on timing and location of snow showers. Not expecting much if any snow accumulation. Much colder airmass moves in Wednesday night and lingers through Friday night. Temperatures are expected to be well below normal. NW flow will be gusty Wednesday night into Thursday night which will help advect in colder air.

For next weekend, the high lifts farther northward. The airmass across the region will moderate. Models convey a vast array of solutions regarding low pressure offshore and its track. A lot of uncertainty in the local forecast in this timeframe.

AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure builds over the region tonight, then drifts east Monday. A weak area of low pressure approaches the region Monday into Monday night.

Gusty west winds sustained 20-25kt with gusts 30-40kt expected across the area terminals through this evening. Winds and gusts gradually subside through the evening, diminishing late tonight becoming light and variable Tuesday.

Otherwise, VFR conditions through Monday 18z, lowering to MVFR Monday afternoon/early evening in light snow/wintry mix which will become likely for NYC/NJ metro terminals after 21z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Monday. MVFR/IFR conds in light snow/wintry mix becoming likely for NYC/NJ metro terminals after 21z. Monday night. IFR or lower likely. NYC metro and coastal terminals, wintry mix gradually changing to plain rain late. KEWR/KTEB/KBDR could see freezing rain linger into early Tue morning push. KHPN/KSWF wintry mix, including freezing rain. Tuesday. IFR or lower conds. Wintry mix, possibly changing back to all snow at KSWF before ending. Rain at NYC/NJ metro and coastal terminals, possibly changing to wintry mix before ending late. N gusts to 20kt developing Tue afternoon. Tuesday night. VFR. NW winds G20kt NYC metros/KISP mainly eve. Wednesday. VFR. NW winds G25kt mainly afternoon. Thursday. VFR. Friday. VFR.

MARINE. Gale force wind gusts will gradually subsiding this evening, and falling below SCA by late tonight. Ocean seas will be a bit slower to respond with residual s/se swells, but should fall below SCA from west to east through Monday morning. Sub-SCA conditions are expected for much of Monday and Monday night.

SCA seas return on the ocean Tuesday with otherwise sub-SCA conditions all across the rest of the waters. Winds are below SCA criteria. SCA ocean seas remain through Thursday and then decrease to below SCA Thursday night and remain below SCA Friday into Friday night. For the wind gusts, SCA wind gusts expected Tuesday night across mainly the ocean waters. Wind gusts return to SCA levels on the ocean Wednesday afternoon and all waters have at least SCA level winds Wednesday night through Thursday with potential for gales on the eastern and ocean waters during this timeframe. SCA levels gusts forecast on the eastern and ocean waters Thursday night. Winds are mainly below SCA Friday into Friday night.

HYDROLOGY. Remaining flooding concerns are for the larger stem rivers in CT with a combination of the recent rainfall and melting snow to the north.

Another significant precipitation event is likely Monday through Tuesday, with liquid equivalent QPF of 0.5 to 1.00 inches possible. There is uncertainty in this amount given uncertainty in the track of the low and frontal positions.

No significant widespread precipitation expected from Tuesday night onward through the rest of the forecast.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM EST Tuesday for CTZ005>008. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ067>070. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM EST Tuesday for NJZ002-103. MARINE . Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ335-338-345. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-340-350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . BC/JM NEAR TERM . BC SHORT TERM . BC LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . Fig MARINE . BC/JM HYDROLOGY . BC/JM EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 11 mi34 min W 19 G 25 42°F 41°F26°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 26 mi74 min W 14 G 18 44°F 2 ft26°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 28 mi49 min W 18 G 27 43°F 32°F25°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi46 min NNW 16 G 23 43°F 44°F1015.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 29 mi74 min WNW 29 G 35 46°F 50°F9 ft1013.8 hPa (+4.3)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 30 mi34 min WNW 25 G 33 44°F 1016 hPa29°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi52 min WNW 8 G 11 42°F 44°F1012.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi46 min 42°F 44°F1015.7 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 41 mi46 min WNW 22 G 26 43°F 44°F1016 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 42 mi46 min WNW 24 G 29 43°F 1015.6 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 46 mi46 min 42°F 39°F1015.9 hPa
MHRN6 47 mi46 min W 18 G 22
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 47 mi46 min WNW 19 G 22 42°F 43°F1012.1 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY8 mi71 minW 21 G 2910.00 miFair and Breezy42°F21°F43%1014.1 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY14 mi68 minW 1410.00 miA Few Clouds42°F19°F41%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE3CalmE3NE4NE3CalmNE6NE5NE6NE5NE4NE4E5CalmE3SE4SE7E6E6NE6N6NE6E7NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Democrat Point, Fire Island Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Democrat Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:08 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:56 AM EST     3.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:11 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:57 PM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:46 PM EST     2.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.50.1-0.10.10.71.62.42.932.92.41.710.4-0.1-0.200.71.422.42.42.2

Tide / Current Tables for Gilgo Heading, Long Island, New York
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Gilgo Heading
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:33 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:12 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:57 AM EST     1.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:22 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:07 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.110.80.50.30.1-0-00.20.611.21.31.21.10.80.50.20-0.1-0.10.20.50.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.