Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Beach-Captree, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 7:59PM Monday August 10, 2020 11:17 AM EDT (15:17 UTC) Moonrise 11:37PMMoonset 12:35PM Illumination 59% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 923 Am Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 923 Am Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A broad area of high pressure will remain over the region today before moving out into the atlantic on Tuesday. A cold front will slowly approach on Wednesday, move into the area on Thursday, then pass south on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Beach-Captree, NY
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location: 40.66, -73.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 101327 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 927 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. A broad area of high pressure will remain over the region today before moving out into the Atlantic on Tuesday. A cold front will slowly approach on Wednesday and move over the area on Thursday. The front will pass south and become stationary off the Mid Atlantic coast from Friday into the weekend as weak disturbances move along it.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Morning dew points were a few degrees higher than forecast especially along the coast. Also, the stratus and fog has mixed out and skies were clear. Afternoon highs and dew points, with heat index values, were unchanged.

High pressure and slight ridging aloft will remain over the region today. This will result in the first of several hot an humid days for the local area as south-southwest flow becomes established. Under plenty of sunshine, highs today are expected to rise into the lower 90s across much of New York City, northeast New Jersey, and the Lower Hudson Valley, with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. These temperatures combined with dew points around 70 will yield heat index values in the mid 90s across much of the region. A Heat Advisory will go into effect for much of the region today with the exception of Suffolk County on Long Island and the southern portions of Middlesex and New London Counties in Connecticut.

While much of the area will remain dry, can't completely rule out an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, primarily northwest of NYC where the better instability lies.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches today due to long period southeasterly swell.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Hot and humid conditions will continue into Tuesday as the surface high and upper ridge axis move offshore. After overnight lows remaining in the 70s across much of the area, afternoon highs on Tuesday will be very similar to those experienced today, with low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. Afternoon dew points will be a degree or two higher, resulting in another day with heat index values in the mid 90s across a good portion of the area. Again, can't completely rule out an afternoon shower or thunderstorm away from the coast.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches on Tuesday due to long period southeasterly swell.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. A cold front will begin to approach the region on Wednesday, but despite an increase in cloud cover ahead of the front, expecting another day with heat index values rising into the mid 90s across much of the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through the day as the front draws closer, with the best chances from the NYC metro area north and west. With PW values of 1.5-2 inches and weak winds aloft, any storms that develop could be capable of producing heavy rainfall as well as isolated pulse svr given steep low level lapse rates.

A better chance for tstms with heavy rainfall possible on Thu as as the front enters the area and as mid levels moisten up in its advance. Winds aloft look weak, so storms should once again be slow movers.

The front should sink to the south this weekend, but may still remain close enough for continued shower chances especially toward NYC and Long Island Fri/Sat, with increasing disagreement among the global models as the weekend progresses. ECMWF builds high pressure from eastern Canada down into the area on Sunday while a wave of low pressure passes to the south, which could result in dry/breezy conditions along the coast. GFS maintains more ridging off the coast and allows the front to remain closer or return northward more quickly, perhaps too quickly. Compromised between the two while leaning more toward the ECMWF.

AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Western Atlantic high pressure will be in control today.

Mainly VFR through the forecast period. Isolated shra/tsra possible at KSWF this afternoon/evening. There is a chance of stratus/fog once again tonight, especially at the outlying terminals.

W-SW flow of 6 to 10 kt this morning, giving way to afternoon S sea breezes of 8 to 12 kt. S sea breeze possible at KEWR/KTEB in late afternoon.

NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of seabreeze may be off by +/- 1 hour.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of seabreeze may be off by +/- 1 hour.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Uncertainty of seabreeze reaching the terminal this afternoon. Amendments may be needed for changing wind direction mid-late afternoon.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Uncertainty of seabreeze reaching the terminal this afternoon. Amendments may be needed for changing wind direction mid-late afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of seabreeze may be off by +/- 1 hour.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Tuesday/Tuesday Night. VFR. MVFR or lower stratus/fog possible for eastern terminals at night. SW flow. Wed-Thu. Increasing chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. MVFR or lower conds in stratus/fog possible at night into early morning, particularly coastal terminals. SW flow. Fri. MVFR or lower possible in SHRA. E flow.

MARINE. Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through Friday night.

HYDROLOGY. Will continue to monitor potential for flooding with the approach of a cold front mid to late week. This threat appears to be isold in nature on Wed as PW increase to near 2 inches while mid/upper levels remain somewhat drier, then greater on Thu as PW rises above 2 inches and entire column moistens up. Slow moving storms could produce heavy rainfall in short order, but with wind fields aloft relatively weak any cell training would depend on mesoscale factors impossible to predict this far out in time.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005>010. NY . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>075-176>179. NJ . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . FEB NEAR TERM . FEB/MET SHORT TERM . FEB LONG TERM . FEB/Goodman AVIATION . BC/DS MARINE . FEB HYDROLOGY . Goodman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 11 mi48 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 74°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 26 mi93 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8 78°F 74°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 28 mi48 min S 5.8 G 5.8 83°F 75°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi48 min Calm G 1 82°F 1018 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 29 mi78 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 75°F1017.5 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 30 mi68 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8 72°F1017.2 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi48 min SSW 7 G 8.9 79°F 77°F1016.5 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi48 min 81°F 77°F1017.6 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 41 mi48 min WNW 6 G 7 79°F 79°F1018.1 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 42 mi48 min W 2.9 G 4.1 82°F 1017.3 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 46 mi48 min 83°F 78°F1017.5 hPa
MHRN6 47 mi48 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 47 mi48 min SW 7 G 8 78°F 78°F1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY8 mi25 minVar 310.00 miFair88°F68°F52%1017.2 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY14 mi22 minVar 410.00 miA Few Clouds88°F70°F55%1017 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S10SW11S13SW13S14S12SW11SW9S9SW7SW8SW5SW4SW4SW6SW4SW3SW3CalmW5SW6SW53
1 day agoN6NE4S9S9S7S8SE7SE8S6S7S6SW5SW3CalmS3CalmCalmSW3SW4CalmSW4SW6S7S8
2 days agoNE96E7SE8SE7SE6SE7E4E3SE4E8N6NE4E3N4NE3NE4NE4E5N3NE4NE5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Democrat Point, Fire Island Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Democrat Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:20 AM EDT     2.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:49 PM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:13 PM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.42.11.510.60.40.40.71.21.82.22.52.52.41.91.51.10.80.70.81.11.51.9

Tide / Current Tables for Gilgo Heading, Long Island, New York
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Gilgo Heading
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:21 AM EDT     1.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:54 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:50 PM EDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:38 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.81110.90.70.50.30.20.20.30.50.70.911.110.90.70.50.40.30.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.