Oak Beach-Captree, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Beach-Captree, NY

May 25, 2024 10:00 PM EDT (02:00 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:25 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM
Moonrise 10:56 PM   Moonset 6:35 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 747 Pm Edt Sat May 25 2024

Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog late this evening and overnight. Slight chance of showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening and overnight.

Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sun night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Mon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.

Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Tue - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the morning.

Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

Wed night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.

Thu - NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

Thu night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 747 Pm Edt Sat May 25 2024

Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure will give way to a weakening frontal system this evening into early Sunday. A surface trough lingers on Sunday. A stronger frontal system will affect the area Monday into Monday night with a series of fronts following it Tuesday into Wednesday. An upper level disturbance may affect the area towards the end of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Beach-Captree, NY
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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 252354 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 754 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will give way to a weakening frontal system this evening into early Sunday. A surface trough lingers on Sunday. A stronger frontal system will affect the area Monday into Monday night with a series of fronts following it Tuesday into Wednesday.
An upper level disturbance may impact the area towards the end of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Upstream convection across central NY State south into NE PA continues to weaken as it works east into a stable airmass.
This weakening is also supported by the CAMs. Thus, only expect isolated coverage as the activity work west to east overnight.

At the surface, weak high pressure will slide east giving way to a weakening pre-frontal trough/cold front this eventing.
Models indicate enough lift for isolated showers overnight.
Moistening S/SE flow should allow for advection/development of stratus across coastal areas tonight into Sun Am. Potentially some fog advection/development along the immediate coast of LI/SE CT as well.

Lows will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
Zonal upper flow aloft with heights gradually rising Sunday. Brief shortwave ridging will slide east Sunday night, giving way to approach of a series of shortwaves Sunday Night thru Monday in deep SW flow ahead of a broad northern plains/Great lakes low.

Weak troughing lingers across the region on Sunday. A lingering early morning shower threat before shortwave energy moves east.
The surface trough likely retrogrades inland in the afternoon with the development of a hybrid SE synoptic/sea breezes. No discernible trigger for convection in the afternoon/evening, along with mid-level capping, should keep any shower/tstm activity chances slight and isolated along the interior trough.
With a bit more in the way of cloud cover on Sunday (morning stratus/aft cu) but otherwise similar synoptic setup, and well inland moving aft sea breeze, temps will likely be very similar to today. Convection will quickly dissipate Sun eve, with stratus and fog likely working back onshore into coastal areas Sun night.

A frontal system approaches the region Sunday Night into Monday, with warm front lifting north Monday morning, and then pre-frontal trough approaching late Mon/Mon eve. Scattered shower possible late Sun night/Mon AM with warm frontal passage, particularly western areas, then increasing shower threat expected from w to e during the the afternoon Monday with approaching main shortwave and strengthening llj advecting in a +2 STD PWAT Atlantic/Gulf airmass. Elevated instability will also be on the increase from SW to NE late Mon into Mon eve, increasing the threat for rounds of heavy downpours and embedded thunderstorms along and ahead of the pre- frontal trough/cold front into Mon Night.

NBM ensemble probs of >1" of rainfall by 8pm are about 10-20%, particularly for hill terrain N&W of NYC with orographic enhancement in SE flow. Will have more insight into rainfall amounts and rates for this event over the next 24 hrs as the event gets resolved by high-res CAMs.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Moderate to occasionally heavy showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue, especially the first half of Monday night, associated with a strong frontal system. Forecast area looks to be mainly north of the warm front, possibly briefly warm sectored. Instability is mainly elevated with high helicity with the SE low-level inflow. So not favorable for severe weather, but will have to watch how close the warm front gets, and if some higher surface based instability can be generated. Cold front is quickly on its heels with conditions drying out by daybreak Tuesday. PWAT values are near 1.75, which is around the daily max for this date. Some of the rainfall could be briefly heavy. WPC has areas north and west of NYC in a slight risk of heavy rainfall and marginal elsewhere. There are some timing issues, but consensus has trended a bit faster. Storm total rainfall is currently expected to be between 0.50 to 1.00", highest north and west of NYC and across interior southern CT.

Thereafter, another strong shortwave drops into the mean trough across the Great Lakes and Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday.
There are series of reinforcing cold fronts/troughs that move across the area during the time. There was a possibility of the airmass recovering ahead of the cold front on Wednesday, but airmass looks capped and too dry to support strong convection. What has changed through is the chance of post-frontal showers, possibly a thunderstorm Wednesday night into Thursday in associated with the aforementioned shortwave. The upper trough then closes off just offshore Friday into Saturday. Have kept a slight chance of showers during this time. This will depend on the proximity of the closed low to the forecast area. Farther west, and there could be more clouds and convection.

As for temperatures, largely followed the NBM for all except Tuesday, where it was blended with the warmer 50th percentile. The box and whisker temperature plots from the NBM show the deterministic below the 25th percentile at most sites. A WSW flow and dry air point to the potential for a warmer day with many locations getting into the lower 80s, possibly warmer in the metro area. This will depend on how quickly the cooler air follows.
Otherwise, expect temperatures getting closer to normal in the Thursday through Saturday time period. The coolest day look to be Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A weakening cold front approaches late tonight and stalls nearby on Sunday.

VFR early this evening. LIFR stratus anticipated at KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON overnight before dissipating by mid-Sunday morning. Slight chance of showers after midnight for the city and terminals and KSWF/KHPN. IFR or lower may return aft 00Z Mon.

SE-S winds bcmg more S-SW or light and variable by the end of the night. S-SE flow aob 10kt on Sun.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Chance that low cigs and vsbys do not occur tonight at KJFK. A low chance that low cigs and vsbys spread to KLGA after midnight.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night: IFR or lower possible. Chc TSTM for KSWF/KHPN.

Monday: IFR. Chc morning showers, then PM showers likely and chc of TSTM. SE gusts 20-25kt possible for coastal terminals.

Tuesday: IFR/MVFR early, improving to VFR by noon.

Wednesday: Chance of aftn TSTM and MVFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chc shra/TSTM.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A weak pressure gradient and lack of significant swell will lead to conditions below SCA levels through Sunday night. A strengthening S-SE flow on Monday could into result in marginal SCA conditions on the ocean waters, mainly late in the day into the first half of the night.

A strengthening S-SE flow on Monday could into result in marginal SCA conditions on the ocean waters through Monday night. Otherwise, Winds and seas will generally remain below SCA criteria for the middle and end of the week.

HYDROLOGY
A frontal system Monday into Monday night will likely bring a few rounds of heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday Night.

Predictability remains inherently low on location of axis of heaviest rainfall, peak rainfall magnitude and rainfall rates, which should become more clear over the next 24 to 36 hrs as this event is better resolved by high-res CAMs. Chances remain highest for heaviest rainfall across NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior southern CT. These locations are likely to see around and inch of rainfall with locally higher amounts possible.

6hr Headwater guidance for minor flooding along flashy rivers is around 2 to 2 1/2", while 12 hr is closer to 3". At this point NBM exceedance probabilities are not indicating this, but will need to properly assess this potential through high-res model guidance.

WPC continues to highlight a slight risk for excessive rainfall to the north and west of NYC with a marginal risk elsewhere. Primary threat appears to be for minor urban/poor drainage flooding, with a flash flood threat in the path of any training convection (slight risk area).

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A southerly flow at 5-10 kt and a southerly swell of 1 ft 8-9s should keep the rip current risk low through Sunday.

The rip current/longshore current risk will likely increase to moderate through the afternoon Monday as E/SE winds strengthen and SE wind waves build to 3 to 4 ft.

This forecast is supported by latest RCMOS at area beaches.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 28 mi30 min S 5.8G7.8 58°F 60°F29.8858°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi42 min SSE 8.9G9.9 66°F 61°F29.87
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 30 mi30 min SSE 9.7G12 62°F 62°F29.8762°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi42 min SE 2.9G4.1 67°F 62°F29.83
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi42 min 66°F 63°F29.82
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 41 mi42 min ESE 5.1G8 63°F 68°F29.89
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 42 mi42 min SSE 8G9.9 64°F 29.87
MHRN6 47 mi42 min ESE 5.1G6
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 47 mi42 min SSE 2.9G5.1 65°F 62°F29.90


Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFRG REPUBLIC,NY 8 sm2.1 hrsSE 0410 smClear66°F55°F68%29.86
KISP LONG ISLAND MAC ARTHUR,NY 14 sm64 minSSE 0510 smMostly Cloudy63°F57°F83%29.87
KHWV BROOKHAVEN,NY 24 sm64 minSE 0310 smClear61°F55°F82%29.88
Link to 5 minute data for KFRG


Wind History from FRG
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Democrat Point, Fire Island Inlet, Long Island, New York
   
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Democrat Point
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Sat -- 03:39 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:11 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:30 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:20 PM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Democrat Point, Fire Island Inlet, Long Island, New York, Tide feet
12
am
1.7
1
am
1
2
am
0.4
3
am
0.1
4
am
0
5
am
0.4
6
am
1.1
7
am
1.8
8
am
2.2
9
am
2.4
10
am
2.4
11
am
2
12
pm
1.5
1
pm
1
2
pm
0.6
3
pm
0.3
4
pm
0.3
5
pm
0.7
6
pm
1.5
7
pm
2.3
8
pm
2.8
9
pm
3.1
10
pm
3.1
11
pm
2.7


Tide / Current for Amityville, Long Island, New York
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Amityville
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Sat -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:11 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:10 PM EDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:02 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Amityville, Long Island, New York, Tide feet
12
am
1.5
1
am
1.4
2
am
1.1
3
am
0.8
4
am
0.5
5
am
0.3
6
am
0.1
7
am
0
8
am
0.1
9
am
0.4
10
am
0.8
11
am
1
12
pm
1.1
1
pm
1.1
2
pm
1
3
pm
0.8
4
pm
0.5
5
pm
0.3
6
pm
0.2
7
pm
0.1
8
pm
0.2
9
pm
0.6
10
pm
1
11
pm
1.3


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Upton, NY,




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