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FXUS63 KILX 041736 AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1136 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

SHORT TERM
(Through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

A compact 540 dm 500 mb low over east central MO west of St Louis metro had an associated 1008 mb surface low south of St Louis west of Perryville, MO on MS river. Its warm front was over far southern IL, south of I-64. Radar mosaic shows a large band of rain showers in sw and west central IL and back into central and east central MO. A band of heavier rains were south and sw of Scott county to sw of Mount Vernon where a few thunderstorms were occuring. Brunt of rain showers were just sw of CWA at 330 am.
Temps were in the low to mid 30s over much of central IL, with upper 30s from Effingham to Lawrenceville sw.

The CAMs show surface low moving into far southern IL by sunrise and into south central KY by 18Z/noon today. 500 mb low weakens and opens up as it tracks over southern IL between 12-15Z and into the lower Ohio river valley by midday. Models show band of precipitation affecting areas from Winchester and Jacksonville to Terre Haute south into mid morning. Some frontogenetic forcing enhancing bands of precipitation and some of this heavier pcpn could affect areas south of Effingham to Robinson. Isolated thunderstorms possible early this morning south of highway 50.
Pcpn type is looking more like rain in southeast IL early this morning with warm air advection off setting diabatic cooling. Rain showers diminish over southeast IL late this morning as system pulls away. Widespread clouds this morning could break up some over sw CWA this afternoon. Highs today mostly in the low to mid 40s over central IL, but range from around 40F from I-74 north to near 50F at Lawrenceville.

Northern stream short wave/trof over the northern Rockies/High Plains to track into Iowa and the upper MS river valley by midnight tonight and have a weak 1015 mb surface low track across northern IL Tue morning. Precipitation to likely move into the IL river valley late this evening and overspread rest of CWA during overnight and linger over eastern IL on Tue. Rain could be mixed with snow ne of a Springfield to Terre Haute line with minor snow accumulations less than a half inch possible north of I-74. Lows Mon night in the low to mid 30s. Highs Tue in the low to mid 40s in central IL and 45-50F in southeast IL.

07

LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

There is a slight chance that light pcpn could linger near the Indiana border Tue evening, otherwise drier weather expected to move in for Wed as 1030 mb high pressure settles into the area.
Lows Tue night 25 to 30F in central IL and lower 30s in southeast IL. Seasonable highs Wed in the low to mid 40s as skies become partly sunny.

Large upper level ridge over the Rockies and High Plains on Wed to shift eastward into the MS river valley and IL on Thu while surface high pressure shifts into the southeast states. Breezy sw winds gusting 20-30 mph and a fair amount of sunshine Thu to warm temps back above normal into the mid to upper 50s, warmest over west central IL. Breezy sw winds continue Friday with even warmer highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. though clouds will be increasing as day progresses as strong low pressure passes north of Lake Superior and see increasing gulf moisture.

Strong upper level trof digging over the western states late this week ejects surface low pressure ne from the southern plains toward central/se IL Saturday. This to likely return rain showers Fri night and Saturday. Continue slight chance of thunderstorms in southeast IL, south of I-70 on Saturday where heavier rains will be focused and this area could see over 1 inch of rain this weekend. Highs Saturday range from upper 40s nw of the IL river to the mid to upper 50s in southeast IL with Lawrenceville making another run toward 60F.

The 00Z model suite showing a stronger/deepening low pressure lifting from the mid MS river valley Sat night into the central or eastern Great Lakes region by Sunday afternoon, with IL on the cooler side of this storm system. Rain chances continue on Sunday with highest chances in eastern/se IL. Much cooler highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Sunday with Lawrenceville near 45F.
Lows Sunday night in the mid to upper 20s. Will need to monitor chances of snow on Sunday depending on low pressure track.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 day outlook for Dec 9-13th has 55-60% chance of above normal temperatures over IL, with 40-50% chance of above normal precipitation. CPC's 8-14 day outlook for Dec 11-17th continues trend of above normal temperatures over IL (40-50%) while precipitation trends are trending near normal.

07

AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

MVFR stratus will blanket the area through the majority of the the TAF period. A quick hitting weather system will bring rain or a rain/snow mix to terminals late tonight. MVFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR visby reductions will accompany the precipitation, with similar ceilings sticking around through the daytime hours of Tuesday. Light northerly winds this afternoon will back to the south by this evening. Winds will then shift to the west by mid morning, and then eventually to the northwest by late morning or early afternoon.

NMA

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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