Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Peoria, IL
May 12, 2024 3:57 AM CDT (08:57 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 9:17 AM Moonset 12:28 AM |
Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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FXUS63 KILX 120753 AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 253 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A pleasant end to the weekend for Mother's Day, with 80s across the board this afternoon.
- Widespread rains will return on Monday and continue through late Tuesday. There remains a 40-60% chance for more than an inch of rainfall south of I-74. This rain will contribute to area rivers and streams already running high, increasing the risk for localized inundation near riverbanks. This could perhaps also further delay planting and inhibit germination of agricultural seedlings.
- Below normal temps are likely (70%) Tuesday, with chilly conditions Tuesday night as low temps dip into the 40s north of I-72.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024
Water vapor satellite loops depict our next weather disturbance slowly advancing across Colorado, with northwest flow aloft into Illinois bringing Canadian wildfire smoke into the region. At the surface, high pressure is providing light and variable winds early this morning, which will give way to southwest flow as the surface ridge axis shifts east of Illinois by this afternoon. Mixing of mid-level dry air today will lower dewpoints a few degrees, allowing for high temps to overachieve into the lower 80s across all of central and southeast Illinois. Weak warm advection lift this afternoon could produce spurious radar returns west of the Illinois river, however, chances of measurable rainfall will be low due to dry sub-cloud air. Therefore, most areas should remain dry today.
Rain chances will ramp up after midnight tonight from southwest to northeast, as the cutoff upper low drifts into the region.
Coverage of showers will be scattered late Sunday night and Monday morning, with widespread rains and isolated thunderstorms finally reaching our far eastern counties Monday afternoon.
Forecast soundings are indicating narrow CAPE profiles, limiting updraft strength amid a weak shear environment with 25kts of 0-6km bulk shear. Precipitable water values will climb toward 1.5" Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. The NBM is still indicating 50-60% chance of at least 1" of rainfall for areas south of I-74 in the Mon-Tue time frame. The Grand Ensemble has lowered those chances a bit into the 30-50% range. Despite that, feel that pockets of 1.5"+ inches will be in play due to high PW values, especially south of Springfield to Mattoon.
A shortwave ridge will provide a break in the rain chances mid- week, amid colder than normal temps in the cloudy, cold air advection regime. Tuesday's high temps will be limited to the mid to upper 60s for areas north of I-70. Lows Tues night will dip into the upper 40s north of the I-72 corridor, with steady north winds making it feel even cooler.
Shimon
AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024
VFR conditions to prevail the next 24 hours, with a general increase in mid to high level clouds late in the forecast period.
Light and variable winds overnight will trend more southwestward, and increase to about 10 knots or so by mid morning.
Geelhart
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 253 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A pleasant end to the weekend for Mother's Day, with 80s across the board this afternoon.
- Widespread rains will return on Monday and continue through late Tuesday. There remains a 40-60% chance for more than an inch of rainfall south of I-74. This rain will contribute to area rivers and streams already running high, increasing the risk for localized inundation near riverbanks. This could perhaps also further delay planting and inhibit germination of agricultural seedlings.
- Below normal temps are likely (70%) Tuesday, with chilly conditions Tuesday night as low temps dip into the 40s north of I-72.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024
Water vapor satellite loops depict our next weather disturbance slowly advancing across Colorado, with northwest flow aloft into Illinois bringing Canadian wildfire smoke into the region. At the surface, high pressure is providing light and variable winds early this morning, which will give way to southwest flow as the surface ridge axis shifts east of Illinois by this afternoon. Mixing of mid-level dry air today will lower dewpoints a few degrees, allowing for high temps to overachieve into the lower 80s across all of central and southeast Illinois. Weak warm advection lift this afternoon could produce spurious radar returns west of the Illinois river, however, chances of measurable rainfall will be low due to dry sub-cloud air. Therefore, most areas should remain dry today.
Rain chances will ramp up after midnight tonight from southwest to northeast, as the cutoff upper low drifts into the region.
Coverage of showers will be scattered late Sunday night and Monday morning, with widespread rains and isolated thunderstorms finally reaching our far eastern counties Monday afternoon.
Forecast soundings are indicating narrow CAPE profiles, limiting updraft strength amid a weak shear environment with 25kts of 0-6km bulk shear. Precipitable water values will climb toward 1.5" Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. The NBM is still indicating 50-60% chance of at least 1" of rainfall for areas south of I-74 in the Mon-Tue time frame. The Grand Ensemble has lowered those chances a bit into the 30-50% range. Despite that, feel that pockets of 1.5"+ inches will be in play due to high PW values, especially south of Springfield to Mattoon.
A shortwave ridge will provide a break in the rain chances mid- week, amid colder than normal temps in the cloudy, cold air advection regime. Tuesday's high temps will be limited to the mid to upper 60s for areas north of I-70. Lows Tues night will dip into the upper 40s north of the I-72 corridor, with steady north winds making it feel even cooler.
Shimon
AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024
VFR conditions to prevail the next 24 hours, with a general increase in mid to high level clouds late in the forecast period.
Light and variable winds overnight will trend more southwestward, and increase to about 10 knots or so by mid morning.
Geelhart
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPIA GENERAL DOWNING PEORIA INTL,IL | 8 sm | 63 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 54°F | 46°F | 77% | 29.89 |
Central Illinois, IL,
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