Friday, November15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elmont, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:38PM Friday November 15, 2019 6:29 PM EST (23:29 UTC) Moonrise 8:10PMMoonset 10:36AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 439 Pm Est Fri Nov 15 2019
.gale warning in effect from midnight est tonight through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt early morning, then increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun night..NE winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Mon..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. Chance of showers.
Tue..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Tue night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ300 439 Pm Est Fri Nov 15 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will move across the waters tonight, followed by strong high pressure building in from southeast canada and settling into northern new england Saturday into Saturday night. The high will retreat into the canadian maritimes Sunday into Monday as low pressure approaches and passes south and east of long island. Another low may pass well south and east of long island mid-week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elmont, NY
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location: 40.7, -73.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 152156 cca
afdokx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service new york ny
456 pm est Fri nov 15 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will move across tonight, followed by strong high
pressure building in from southeast canada and settling into
northern new england Saturday into Saturday night. The high
will retreat into the canadian maritimes Sunday into Monday as
low pressure approaches and passes south and east of long island.

This low pressure system could bring rainfall late Sunday into
Monday before ejecting to the northeast. A cold dry airmass
will then remain in place through mid week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Cold front moves across this evening, devoid of moisture, with
winds behind it going from west to north. Gusty winds along
coast will keep boundary layer relatively higher for
temperatures, but still some significant cold air advection will
be occurring behind the cold front. 850mb temperatures decrease
from around 2-4 degrees c initially to -2 to -7 degrees c by
early Saturday morning. The interior is expected to be the
coldest where winds will be relatively lighter. Sfc temperature
for lows were 2 3 mav and 1 3 met mos. Ranging from the upper
teens to around 30. There will be some cirrus for the first half
of tonight.

The pressure gradient between the high to the north and low
pressure developing off the southeast us coast will remain quite
steep, resulting in gusty northerly flow.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
Mid levels will be a split flow between some weak ridging moving
in from the west and a cutoff low associated with the surface
low developing off the southeast us coast.

High pressure builds in with its center staying well north and
west of the region Saturday. The pressure gradient between this
high and low pressure developing off the southeast us coast will
remain quite steep keeping gusty northerly flow. The flow
becomes more northeasterly late in the day and into Saturday
night as the center of the high moves into northern new england
and the low further develops and deepens off the southeast us
coast.

The airmass will be very cold for Saturday and Saturday with the
strong high to the north controlling the local weather. This
will bring mostly sunny conditions during the day and much of
Saturday night will be mostly clear. Highs on Saturday were
from the mav MOS which were performing a little better with
recent highs. The highs forecast range from the mid to upper
30s. For Saturday night, despite the gusty winds, will bring a
slightly colder night compared to the previous night, with lows
in the teens to near 30. Clouds increase late Sunday night well
ahead of the low.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Mid-level trough axis pivots through the great lakes region
throughout the day Sunday setting up a southwest to northeast upper
level flow along the east coast. At the same time an offshore low
near north carolina deepens and rides the flow north. As this system
nears our CWA the pressure gradient between the low and the 1030 mb
high over maine results in windy conditions during the day. Rain
chances increase Sunday night into Monday morning. Mix precip
with the possibility of trace freezing rain could be possible in
this environment as model soundings near orange county show a
slight warm layer between 900-750 mb that could allow for some
melting then refreeze below. Though by the late morning the
vertical profile changing to all rain. Steady moderate rain is
expected throughout the day Monday on the back side of the
ejecting low. Rain totals should be between 1-2 inches
throughout the whole event.

The aforementioned trough axis pushes through new england Tuesday
into Wednesday allowing for a cold airmass to build back into the
area. This trough may have enough upper level dynamics to produce
precipitation for our northern counties along the lower hudson
valley. Though only a slight chance, any perception would most
likely be light snow with little to no accumulation. Areas not
impacted by rain will see temperatures reach the mid 40s with lows
in the upper 30s.

The next trough moves through the great lakes deepening a low over
western quebec. Locally this drives warm front through the forecast
area Thursday ahead of the next batch of rainfall Friday. Long range
guidance remains variable around the specific timing the next system
but this will continue to be monitored for changes and subsequent
updates.

Aviation 21z Friday through Wednesday
A cold front moves through tonight with high pressure building
in from the northwest into Saturday.

Vfr through the TAF period.

W winds will veer to the NW N this evening and increase toward
midnight. N to NE winds around 15 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt
after 08z. NE winds remain gusty into early Saturday before
subsiding late Saturday afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 8 mi60 min NW 9.9 G 12 51°F 53°F1021.1 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 13 mi45 min WSW 9.7 G 12 51°F 32°F30°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 17 mi60 min 50°F 53°F1020.8 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 19 mi70 min WSW 12 G 16 52°F 27°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 20 mi60 min W 8 G 9.9 50°F 1020.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 23 mi40 min W 14 G 16 51°F 56°F2 ft1021.4 hPa29°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 23 mi60 min SW 7 G 9.9 49°F 48°F1021.4 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 24 mi60 min 48°F 51°F1021 hPa
MHRN6 25 mi60 min WSW 11 G 12
44069 32 mi75 min W 7.8 G 9.7 45°F 43°F36°F
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 42 mi40 min W 14 G 16 53°F 57°F2 ft1021 hPa (+0.3)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 43 mi66 min WSW 4.1 G 6 48°F 50°F1019.7 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY5 mi39 minWSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F28°F54%1021.6 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY11 mi39 minW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F21°F31%1020.9 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY15 mi39 minWSW 610.00 miFair49°F21°F33%1020.9 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY16 mi37 minWSW 510.00 miFair45°F24°F44%1021 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ22 mi39 minWSW 710.00 miFair48°F30°F50%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFK

Wind History from JFK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW12W12W13W11W9W10W7SW9W6W6SW6SW4SW7SW7SW8W11SW10SW10W9SW9W9W9W9
1 day agoN7N8N6NE6N3NE4N3NE4NE6NE7NE5N5NW6N5N44W66SW8S6SW7SW9SW10SW11
2 days agoNW18
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Tide / Current Tables for East Rockaway, Long Island, New York
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East Rockaway
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:52 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:35 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:41 AM EST     4.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:41 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:24 PM EST     3.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.70.80.30.10.51.52.83.94.44.54.23.42.41.40.60.10.10.61.52.63.33.63.6

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:25 AM EST     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:55 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:49 AM EST     0.93 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:36 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:04 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:47 PM EST     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:15 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:13 PM EST     0.94 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:28 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.400.20.40.80.90.50-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.10.20.30.60.90.80.2-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.