Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elmont, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Frigid conditions continue through Saturday. A Cold Weather Advisory is in place area-wide through mid-morning today and then again overnight tonight into Saturday morning. Advisories could be needed again for Saturday night.

2) The lowering trend of snow chances and accumulations continues for late Saturday night through Sunday. Minimal snow impacts, if any.

3) Strong, gusty winds and minor coastal flooding/minor shoreline impacts remain possible Saturday night through Sunday night due to the offshore storm system.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Cold Weather Advisory for this morning remains in effect although we may fall short of advisory thresholds. NBM has been too cold with temperatures for the past couple of nights. With this in mind, went above NBM for both highs and lows for today/tonight, although did go with NBM in for inland areas since decoupling winds would be more likely here and also being farther away from potential late night cirrus that could impact the low temperatures tonight for coastal areas. Forecast wind chills are however still within advisory range for most of the area for midnight tonight through mid-Saturday morning. Even for the spots that could fall short of criteria, it should be close enough, especially given the variable nature of winds. The advisory therefore now includes late tonight through mid- Saturday morning. Advisories could be needed again for the entire area for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures won't be as cold, but winds will be ramping up during the overnight period, creating the very cold wind chills.

Additionally, record low maximum temperatures might occur today. See the Climate section below for the current records.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Just about all guidance has dry weather or very light snow potential for late Saturday night through Sunday. Any snow would likely be limited to Long Island and SE CT and limited to under an inch.

KEY MESSAGE 3
The strong storm system that could brush some of the area with light snow will at least produce gusty northerly winds Saturday night through Sunday night. There is potential for sustained N winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Gusts could approach 45 mph, especially across Long Island and coastal Connecticut, so do not want to completely rule out the potential for an Advisory (at least 45 mph gusts). Winds will likely be lower heading farther inland, especially NW of the NYC metro.

The strength of the storm combined with astronomically high tides with an upcoming full moon could produce minor coastal flooding for mainly the night time high tide cycles Saturday night through Sunday night. The strong offshore flow will however limit the surge from the offshore storm. Best chances for minor coastal flooding during will be over the south shore back bays and potentially western Great South Bay. Most other coastal locations may just see water levels touch minor benchmarks. Right now it appears that impacts could be more widespread for Sunday night versus Saturday night.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pres builds in W of the region thru Sat mrng.

Mainly VFR. Low chance for ocnl CIGS around 3500ft this aftn.

NW winds thru the TAF period. Speeds gusting in the 25-30kt range most of the day, then decreasing blw 10kt aft 23-02Z.
Winds remain aob 10kt on Sat.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may only be ocnl this mrng, especially TEB and EWR. Low chance for periods of MVFR CIGS this aftn.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. There is a chance for some MVFR or lower conditions along with a chance of snow, mainly late night Saturday into Sunday. Best chance will be across the terminals east of NYC. Northerly wind gusts increasing at night to 20-25 kt, then 30-35 kt on Sunday. There is low confidence at this time on the magnitude of winds and snow.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR with NW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Included the non-ocean waters in the SCA today. Looks like there should be enough gusts to 25kt here to warrant the issuance. SCA and freezing spray advisory on the ocean have been extended by a few more hours into this evening. After a relatively quiet period, offshore winds increase Saturday night. A Gale Watch remains posted for all waters late Saturday night through Sunday. Thinking we'll fall short of Storm Warning thresholds during this period. Should the watch be converted to a Gale Warning, at least the ocean waters would probably need an extension in time to include part of Sunday night. Winds otherwise diminish across all waters for Monday and Monday night with ocean seas remaining elevated to advisory thresholds.

CLIMATE
Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 30: KEWR: 16/1934 KBDR: 18/1965 KNYC: 16/1934 KLGA: 19/1977 KJFK: 19/1977 KISP: 19/1977

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179.
NJ...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.
Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-353-355.