Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elmont, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) After a few showers associated with a cold frontal passage this afternoon/evening, dry weather will prevail through through the end of the work week.

2) Unsettled weather is possible for at least a portion of the weekend as an area of low pressure passes well offshore.

3) A warming trend early next week may be accompanied by unsettled conditions next Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible this afternoon and evening as a cold front crosses the area. Rainfall amounts with any showers will remain light, with generally only a few hundredths of an inch expected in any one location.

In the wake of the frontal passage, high pressure will briefly build south of the area overnight before quickly moving offshore during the day on Friday. This will result in a dry and seasonable day, with daytime highs rising into the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Unsettled conditions will return on Friday night as a shortwave rotating around the base of an upper low over southeastern Canada brings a renewed chance of showers. The best chance of precipitation will be across the western half of the area, but rainfall amounts again look to remain light.

Any lingering showers associated with the shortwave should taper quickly Saturday morning, but the region will remain under abundant cloud cover as an area of low pressure passing well offshore begins to approach the region. This system will bring another chance of showers to the region, primarily late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Rainfall amounts will once again remain light, with the best chances of precipitation along the coast.

Rain will come to an end Sunday morning as the low continues to move off to the northeast. Despite a good deal of sunshine, daytime highs will remain below normal, generally in the upper 50s to around 60.

KEY MESSAGE 3
Temps on Mon will still be up to a few degrees below average as high pressure to the S slides farther offshore. After a warm frontal passage late Mon night with slight chance of showers NW of NYC, temps Tue-Wed should increase to 5-10 degrees above normal inland with highs well into the 70s, and a couple of degrees above normal toward the coast with highs in the 60s to near 70.

An approaching weak cold front may bring a chance of showers to areas NW of NYC Tue night/Wed morning, then more widespread shower coverage expected Wed night-Thu, with PoP increasing to likely. Tstms may also be possible Thu afternoon/early evening as a stronger cold front approaches from the west in response to upper trough amplification over the Midwest/Great Lakes, and a strengthening sfc low passing well NW. Temps on Thu will not be quite as warm but should still be a few degrees above normal, with highs in the 60s to near 70. QPF Wed-Thu ranges from about 0.75 inch west to 1.00-1.50 inch east. At this extended time range it's much too early to speculate on possible hydrologic impacts other than nuisance ponding in low lying and poor drainage area.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front passes offshore this eve, allowing weak high pres to build in for Fri.

Gradual improvement to VFR thru 23Z. Slightly later at KGON.
VFR then remains thru 00Z Sat.

A few shwrs possible thru 00Z invof the front. Timing and coverage too low to include in the TAFs.

VRB flow becomes NW behind the front this eve, lasting thru the ngt. Speeds less than 10kt. Sea breeze flow will impact winds on Fri, with places right on the S shores expected to be closer to true sea breeze flow.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Return to VFR this eve may be off slightly. Amendments possible.

A few shwrs possible thru 23Z, but no lower than MVFR expected attm.

Wind direction at EWR on Fri could be around 130 true if the sea breeze gets into the arpt.


OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday: VFR with flow mainly blw 10kt.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR at times with light winds.

Sunday: VFR with NW flow.

Monday: VFR with SW flow.

Tuesday: VFR with strong S flow. MVFR or lower possible aft 00Z.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA cancelled for the ocean W of Fire Island Inlet out 20 nm as E-SE swells there have finally fallen below 5 ft and should continue on a gradual downward trend. Extended SCA east of there until 9 PM with swells there running slightly higher than forecast. Conditions should then remain below SCA thresholds through Sunday as low pressure passes well south and east.

The pressure gradient tightens and S winds increase early next week. An extended period of SCA conditions is likely on the ocean from Mon afternoon into Wed, with sustained winds 20-25 kt and seas above 5 ft, building as high as 6-8 ft Mon night-Tue.
As the sea breeze develops each afternoon/early evening, SCA conditions with gusts to 25 kt may also be possible on the Long Island south shore bays, NY Harbor, and the western/central Sound. A few gusts just shy of gale force may also occur with the Ambrose jet on the ocean from Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet late day Tue and Wed.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353.