Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
West Peoria, IL

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:18PM Thursday July 29, 2021 4:17 AM CDT (09:17 UTC) Moonrise 11:37PMMoonset 11:42AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Peoria, IL
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location: 40.7, -89.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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FXUS63 KILX 290909 AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 409 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 156 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Oppressive heat is expected today as heat index values surge into the triple digits. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop later this afternoon and extend into early evening along and ahead of a cold front. A few of these storms may become severe with damaging winds, large hail, localized flash flooding, and even a tornado possible. Cooler temperatures arrive Friday and will extend into early next week.

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Impactful weather is expected today across the region as a dual threat bears down on the Midwest. Dangerous heat has triggered a Heat Advisory for this afternoon, while a severe weather episode looms by evening.

Dangerous Heat: The periphery of a 594mb heat ridge continues to build eastward into portions of the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 90s this afternoon juxtaposed to surface dewpoints climbing into the upper 70s. This combination of heat and humidity will produce heat index values between 105F - 110F, and has prompted a Heat Advisory for our entire outlook area until 8 PM CDT.

Severe Weather Potential: All eyes remain on the MCC pushing across WI/MI/IL early this morning. While convection may linger into the daylight hours across northern IL, the expectation is for this complex of storms to weaken as the LLJ begins to recede and the main mid- level shortwave departs toward the eastern Great Lakes region. A quick glance at LOT/DVN Radar imagery reveals a pair of outflow boundaries that are sagging south across northern Illinois ahead of a weakly forced cold front. This convective debris will prove critical for storm re- initiation later this afternoon.

The boundary layer will become very unstable today ahead of the cold front, and will be aided by an elevated mixed-layer that advects in from the northwest. Upper 70s surface dewpoints and steep mid- level lapse rates will yield highly buoyant parcels (4000-5000 J/kg SBCAPE) ahead of the front as a capping inversion erodes by 18z. At this time, it is not clear whether convective initiation will occur along a pre-existing outflow boundary, or the front, as both features figure to lie in fairly close proximity to each other early this afternoon.

As with any severe weather setup, there are a few limiting factors. Today that is insufficient deep layer shear. With the upper- level jet core displaced northward across the Great Lakes region, central Illinois will only have 20-25 kts of deep layer shear to work with. This figures to limit the amount of updrafts that can become organized/severe this afternoon. Other limiting factors include weak surface convergence and the lack of a definable mid- level shortwave trough to help enhance forcing. Nevertheless, we do anticipate isolated instances of severe weather to develop later this afternoon given the supreme instability in place. Storm- relative hodographs favor mostly multi-cell clusters, but a few discrete cells cannot be ruled out, especially east of I-57 where shear will be highest. Thus, all severe weather hazards remain possible going into early evening. Localized flash flooding is also a concern given the very humid air mass. The HREF is signaling some 1"+/hr rates across our area.

The front will push south of our outlook area by 03z, and skies will begin to clear from north to south in its wake. Overnight lows will cool into the mid-to-upper 60s.

LONG TERM. (Friday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Cooler and drier conditions will return by Friday as surface high pressure begins to build in from the north. The NBM knocks temperatures down into the mid-to-lower 80s heading into this weekend as the 594mb heat ridge gets squeezed westward by a strong upper- level low developing over the Hudson Bay.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain a possibility late Friday evening into Saturday, mainly south of a Galesburg to Lawrenceville line, as an MCS skirts the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A stretch of drier but continued cool weather then looks likely by Sunday as another cold front pushes across the region. These conditions will remain in place through the middle of next week with daily highs in the low 80s and overnight lows near 60.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Some light fog has formed over eastern Illinois late this evening, and will mention MVFR conditions at KCMI for 5SM visibility. Otherwise, VFR conditions should largely prevail, especially as we get past sunrise.

Complicated TAF forecast scenario for Thursday, as an overnight thunderstorm complex continues to drop southward. While the evening models project this should mostly fade out before it gets into central Illinois, residual boundaries should help trigger additional storms on Thursday. Where exactly this occurs is the big question. Will mention VCTS at all sites during the afternoon, though a few models hint that areas from KPIA-KCMI could get some activity during the morning. The storms that do develop will be capable of strong winds and temporary IFR conditions in tropical downpours. The activity should push south early in the evening.

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ045-046-055>057-062-063-066>068-071>073.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038- 040>044-047>054-061.



SYNOPSIS . MJA SHORT TERM . MJA LONG TERM . MJA AVIATION . Geelhart


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Peoria - General Downing-Peoria International Airport, IL5 mi23 minS 310.00 miFair78°F73°F85%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPIA

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Last 24hrSW3CalmCalmSW6SW6W5SW4W54SW6SW9SW12SW8SW10SW7SW6SW6SW6SW6SW4SW6SW7SW5S3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW43SW35CalmSW6SW3SW8S8SW11W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5E3CalmN5N6E6E8NE5E5E4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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