Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Peoria, IL
July 3, 2024 12:36 AM CDT (05:36 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:30 AM Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 3:00 AM Moonset 7:01 PM |
Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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FXUS63 KILX 030458 AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms will move into central Illinois late this evening. There is a severe thunderstorm watch west of the Illinois River.
- Scattered thunderstorms (40-60 percent coverage) are expected Thursday afternoon and evening and may impact Independence Day festivities.
UPDATE
Issued at 858 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A weakening QLCS/line of thunderstorms has begun to move into the central IL forecast area. While an axis of healthy 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE extends up the Mississippi River Valley, a sharp gradient drops this value to near zero east of the Illinois River, causing the storm line to weaken, although strong thunderstorms should be able to creep eastward toward the Illinois River as the high CAPE axis shifts gradually eastward. CAMs depict thunderstorm activity continuing to decrease with its eastward progression overnight as CAPE decreases under 1000 J/kg. A severe thunderstorm watch continues until 11 PM from the Illinois River westward mainly for potential wind gusts to 60 mph. Chance of precipitation overnight ranges from 80+ percent west of the Illinois River, to 70 percent along I-55, and 20 to 40 percent east of I-57 and these values look good. Lows have been nudged down a couple of degrees as showers and thunderstorms overnight should be able to cool temperatures to lower 70s, while eastern portions are cloud free enough to allow some cooling into the 70s before thunderstorms even arrive.
37
DISCUSSION
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
This afternoon, trough of low pressure stretches from the OK/TX Panhandle region into the western Great Lakes. Aloft, a shortwave trough is noted lifting across the northern Great Plains. Near and ahead of the surface trough, dew points pooling in the lower to mid 70s are contributing to strong instability with MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg across much of Missouri, but values quickly taper off to less than 1000 J/kg across west central Illinois. Storms are expected to increase in coverage to our west this afternoon as the aforementioned upper wave interacts with these surface features. Seasonably strong deep layer shear will support a threat for severe storms upstream. CAMs are in reasonable agreement showing upscale growth into a QLCS with storms entering the Illinois River Valley between 01-04Z / 8-11pm CDT. Unfavorable diurnal timing as storms enter the local forecast area and little if any advection of the stronger plume of instability to our west means that storms should begin to decay as they enter portions of central Illinois. 12Z HRRR joint probabilities (CAPE >500; CIN >-75, 0-6km shear >30) indicate high probabilities (near 100 percent) across west central Illinois but quickly falls to zero east of a Galesburg to Beardstown line. The threat for severe storms will be greatest west of the Illinois River Valley with the threat diminishing quickly between the Illinois River and I-55 corridor. Given the expected storm mode, damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard. Marginal 0-3km shear vectors around 30kt in magnitude oriented somewhat parallel to the line of storms should keep the mesovortex tornado threat low locally. Locally heavy rain is also a possibility. Cloud- bearing layer flow runs parallel to the trough axis while Corfidi vectors drop off to 5 kt or less and oppose the mean cloud-bearing layer flow suggesting the potential for training and backbuilding to the S/SW. 12Z HRRR LPMM shows some swaths of 2-3 inches entering the far western CWA, but similar to the severe threat, dropping off quickly east of the Illinois River Valley.
Surface trough / cold front will slowly progress to roughly the I-55 corridor around midday Wednesday. Moderately strong instability is progged to develop ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon, but the jet stream will be displaced to our north over the Upper Midwest with a notable lack of any mid level support resulting in sub-optimal deep layer shear. There is some uncertainty on the location of afternoon thunderstorm development due to outflow pushing the effective front further southeast.
Regional/global models are tending to show afternoon development along the synoptic front across portions of central and east central Illinois, while hi-res CAMs favor convection redeveloping just southeast of the forecast area closer to the Ohio River Valley. Regardless of location, storms may struggle to become organized though strong instability and DCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg support the potential for damaging wind gusts with any stronger storms. The chance for thunderstorms will persist mainly south of I-72 Thursday night as the frontal boundary stalls along the Ohio River Valley.
On Thursday, surface boundary remains stalled to our south while aloft, a shortwave trough is progged to move across the region.
Shear and instability may be favorable for additional severe storms Thursday afternoon, mainly in the vicinity of the stationary front south of I-72. Storms will be possible north of the front as well, but notably lower instability should keep the severe weather threat in check. There is reasonable agreement between models that the shortwave trough will move across central Illinois around midday with a relative lull in precip activity later in the day Thursday before a stronger wave move across the region Thursday night into Friday. This gives some hope that some locales should be able to squeeze in Independence Day festivities Thursday evening, though it may be a narrow window, and at this distance, forecast timing is still subject to some adjustments.
High pressure will build across the region over the weekend resulting in primarily dry conditions across central Illinois.
Surface ridge axis will shift to our east early Sunday allowing temps and humidity to build back up some on Sunday. Highs in the lower to mid 80s Saturday will give way to upper 80s Sunday while dew points creep back up to around 70F.
Deubelbeiss
AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually work eastward across the central IL terminals overnight, with the higher chances of thunderstorms from KPIA-KDEC southward. As such, have included a tempo group for MVFR vsbys and cigs in TSRA at KPIA, KSPI, and KDEC overnight. Otherwise, only included VCTS/VCSH to the north.
Storms may re-develop after 18Z, but this looks likely to take place SE of a KDEC-KCMI line. Expect localized MVFR vsbys and cigs in thunderstorms. A period of MVFR cigs can be expected for several hours behind the storms, but VFR conditions should return by 16Z-19Z as cigs lift and low clouds start to dissipate.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible after 01Z.
Winds S 8-12 kts, shifting to W after thunderstorms pass through.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms will move into central Illinois late this evening. There is a severe thunderstorm watch west of the Illinois River.
- Scattered thunderstorms (40-60 percent coverage) are expected Thursday afternoon and evening and may impact Independence Day festivities.
UPDATE
Issued at 858 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A weakening QLCS/line of thunderstorms has begun to move into the central IL forecast area. While an axis of healthy 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE extends up the Mississippi River Valley, a sharp gradient drops this value to near zero east of the Illinois River, causing the storm line to weaken, although strong thunderstorms should be able to creep eastward toward the Illinois River as the high CAPE axis shifts gradually eastward. CAMs depict thunderstorm activity continuing to decrease with its eastward progression overnight as CAPE decreases under 1000 J/kg. A severe thunderstorm watch continues until 11 PM from the Illinois River westward mainly for potential wind gusts to 60 mph. Chance of precipitation overnight ranges from 80+ percent west of the Illinois River, to 70 percent along I-55, and 20 to 40 percent east of I-57 and these values look good. Lows have been nudged down a couple of degrees as showers and thunderstorms overnight should be able to cool temperatures to lower 70s, while eastern portions are cloud free enough to allow some cooling into the 70s before thunderstorms even arrive.
37
DISCUSSION
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
This afternoon, trough of low pressure stretches from the OK/TX Panhandle region into the western Great Lakes. Aloft, a shortwave trough is noted lifting across the northern Great Plains. Near and ahead of the surface trough, dew points pooling in the lower to mid 70s are contributing to strong instability with MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg across much of Missouri, but values quickly taper off to less than 1000 J/kg across west central Illinois. Storms are expected to increase in coverage to our west this afternoon as the aforementioned upper wave interacts with these surface features. Seasonably strong deep layer shear will support a threat for severe storms upstream. CAMs are in reasonable agreement showing upscale growth into a QLCS with storms entering the Illinois River Valley between 01-04Z / 8-11pm CDT. Unfavorable diurnal timing as storms enter the local forecast area and little if any advection of the stronger plume of instability to our west means that storms should begin to decay as they enter portions of central Illinois. 12Z HRRR joint probabilities (CAPE >500; CIN >-75, 0-6km shear >30) indicate high probabilities (near 100 percent) across west central Illinois but quickly falls to zero east of a Galesburg to Beardstown line. The threat for severe storms will be greatest west of the Illinois River Valley with the threat diminishing quickly between the Illinois River and I-55 corridor. Given the expected storm mode, damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard. Marginal 0-3km shear vectors around 30kt in magnitude oriented somewhat parallel to the line of storms should keep the mesovortex tornado threat low locally. Locally heavy rain is also a possibility. Cloud- bearing layer flow runs parallel to the trough axis while Corfidi vectors drop off to 5 kt or less and oppose the mean cloud-bearing layer flow suggesting the potential for training and backbuilding to the S/SW. 12Z HRRR LPMM shows some swaths of 2-3 inches entering the far western CWA, but similar to the severe threat, dropping off quickly east of the Illinois River Valley.
Surface trough / cold front will slowly progress to roughly the I-55 corridor around midday Wednesday. Moderately strong instability is progged to develop ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon, but the jet stream will be displaced to our north over the Upper Midwest with a notable lack of any mid level support resulting in sub-optimal deep layer shear. There is some uncertainty on the location of afternoon thunderstorm development due to outflow pushing the effective front further southeast.
Regional/global models are tending to show afternoon development along the synoptic front across portions of central and east central Illinois, while hi-res CAMs favor convection redeveloping just southeast of the forecast area closer to the Ohio River Valley. Regardless of location, storms may struggle to become organized though strong instability and DCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg support the potential for damaging wind gusts with any stronger storms. The chance for thunderstorms will persist mainly south of I-72 Thursday night as the frontal boundary stalls along the Ohio River Valley.
On Thursday, surface boundary remains stalled to our south while aloft, a shortwave trough is progged to move across the region.
Shear and instability may be favorable for additional severe storms Thursday afternoon, mainly in the vicinity of the stationary front south of I-72. Storms will be possible north of the front as well, but notably lower instability should keep the severe weather threat in check. There is reasonable agreement between models that the shortwave trough will move across central Illinois around midday with a relative lull in precip activity later in the day Thursday before a stronger wave move across the region Thursday night into Friday. This gives some hope that some locales should be able to squeeze in Independence Day festivities Thursday evening, though it may be a narrow window, and at this distance, forecast timing is still subject to some adjustments.
High pressure will build across the region over the weekend resulting in primarily dry conditions across central Illinois.
Surface ridge axis will shift to our east early Sunday allowing temps and humidity to build back up some on Sunday. Highs in the lower to mid 80s Saturday will give way to upper 80s Sunday while dew points creep back up to around 70F.
Deubelbeiss
AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually work eastward across the central IL terminals overnight, with the higher chances of thunderstorms from KPIA-KDEC southward. As such, have included a tempo group for MVFR vsbys and cigs in TSRA at KPIA, KSPI, and KDEC overnight. Otherwise, only included VCTS/VCSH to the north.
Storms may re-develop after 18Z, but this looks likely to take place SE of a KDEC-KCMI line. Expect localized MVFR vsbys and cigs in thunderstorms. A period of MVFR cigs can be expected for several hours behind the storms, but VFR conditions should return by 16Z-19Z as cigs lift and low clouds start to dissipate.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible after 01Z.
Winds S 8-12 kts, shifting to W after thunderstorms pass through.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KPIA
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KPIA
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KPIA
Wind History graph: PIA
(wind in knots)
Central Illinois, IL,
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