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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 942 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.storm warning in effect through Monday morning...
Tonight..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Isolated tstms. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 942 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. A strengthening frontal system pushes through tonight into Monday morning. The deepening low pressure along it will move away quickly into canada by Monday evening. High pressure will then build from the southwest on Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front approaches Tuesday night and passes through late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Another high will then build from the west for later in the week, then shift off the new england coast Saturday night.

FXUS61 KOKX 110311 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1011 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strengthening frontal system pushes through tonight into Monday morning. The deepening low pressure along it will move away quickly into Canada by Monday evening. High pressure will then build from the southwest on Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front approaches Tuesday night and pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Another strong high will then build from the west for later in the week, then shift off the New England coast Saturday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
***Flooding rain and strong to damaging winds for LI and CT overnight***

Flood threat for NYC, NE NJ, and Lower Hud decreasing.

Forecast on track, as cold front of frontal system approaching NYC. Strong to damaging wind gusts potential peaks over the next 6hrs across E LI/SE CT as the cold front slowly makes its way across. Train of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to stream north from DelMarVa along NJ coast, and up thru LI and S CT through the overnight. A steady axis of rates of 1/4 to 1/2"/hr being observed upstream, with locally up to 1"/hr. As cold front slowly down a bit during its eastward progression, potential for 2"/3 hr for the next 6 hr across portions of LI and S CT, producing an additional 3 to 4" of rainfall over areas that have seen 1 to 2" of rain. Widespread minor urban and riverine flooding is expected, with scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding possible. Localized severe flooding is possible if/where the 3/4-1" rainfall rates persist for a few hours. Highest threat across hill terrain of southern CT.

Flood Watch may be able to be taken down across NYC, NE NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley by midnight. Although additional rainfall of 1 to 1 1/2" of rain is likely before coming to an end, hourly rainfall rates are expected to stay below 1/4"/ hr. Main focus overnight will be LI/CT.

Previous Discussion...

This is all due to a conveyor belt of moisture with anomalous high for this time of the year PWATs and Integrated Water Vapor Transport. All the ingredients are in place for a widespread heavy rain event, with a thick warm cloud layer up to 9 to 10 kft, PWATs up to 1.5 inches, and mean RH up around 95 percent. A very strong LLJ of 60-65 kt providing a classic warm tongue at 850 and 925 mb, along with a trough going negatively tilted is suggestive of an active night. This saturated deep layer column shown by all guidance and upstream soundings only increases confidence for a significant event. To the east of the boundary is lots of high theta E or low latitude air origin, thus the warm rain processes will be in place to drive some higher rainfall rates. WPC has put the area in a rare slight risk of excessive rainfall, with a moderate risk across portions of Central and Eastern CT. See the hydrology section for further details.

Winds expected to ramp up along the coast, particularly LI and SE CT through 10pm. The period of strongest winds along the east side of the frontal boundary will be going forward until about 1-2 AM for the eastern half of the city and Nassau, and until 3 AM for Central LI, and until 6-7 am for far eastern portions of LI and New London, CT. Gusts up to 55-60 mph seem like they can happen. The forecast model soundings do not have the strongest of inversions, and have more of an isothermal look to them, thus a 2-3 hour window for the strong to damaging wind gusts is in place. Also, the a wet soil from tonight's heavy rain could result in some uprooted trees. Thus the High Wind Warning continues, with the addition now of Southern New London, CT. Northern New London, CT is now in a wind advisory until late Mon morning. The front should begin to pivot through eastern areas towards 8-10z. The winds will decrease a bit momentarily into the start of the morning commute for a couple of hours as the winds switch around to the NW quickly.

Across NW zones, particularly Orange County look for the precip to end as a brief period of snow. With surface temps likely still being above freezing any snow will have difficulty sticking, with perhaps a coating or so on the grassy surfaces.
Reasonable worst case would be a slushy 1-2 inches for elevations above 750-1000ft, and maybe a slushy inch on grassy surface down to valley level. he column dries out quickly so any steady snow would end quickly, with snow showers lingering into the mid morning hours, especially in the higher elevations.

During Monday morning lingering showers will move away to the northeast, thus toward mid to late morning day skies will be clearing from SW to NE. The winds will pick up again, but not get to the highest levels seen during the night. Gusts of 35 to 40 mph appear to be a good bet for the mid to late morning as cold advection is maximized as the upper trough axis pivots through. Late in the day and into the evening the pressure gradient begins to decrease somewhat. It will be a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler with 40s across the area into the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
As high pressure builds from the southwest look for the winds to gradually decrease with gusts still around 20 to 25 mph at times during the evening. After midnight under clear skies any gusts should end with temperatures falling to seasonably cold levels.
Temperatures should get below freezing in most places with lows in the middle and upper 20s in the more rural area, to mainly lower 30s across the city and urban locations.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
No changes to the long term. Followed the NBM closely.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft in the wake of one departing trough on Tue will give way to another northern stream trough on Wednesday, which should drive a cold front through either late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Confluent mid level flow after this trough passage, followed by ridging aloft Fri, will then maintain strong sfc high pressure over the area, with perhaps a weak intervening cold frontal passage Friday night. Guidance has been trending towards hanging on to high pressure over the area through the weekend. As high pressure shifts east is where model spread starts to really increase. There is potential for another low pressure system to impact the area late Sunday, but large differences remain in timing, strength and location.

Forecast follows the NBM for the most part given close enough NWP model guidance agreement during this time frame, with only minor adjustments. Fair wx should prevail through the period, with only slight chance to chance PoP for next Sunday. Near normal temps Tue- Wed, and a little below normal Wed night-Thu after the cold frontal passage, should moderate to a few degrees above normal Fri-Sat via ridging sfc and aloft.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
** HIGH AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD **

A strong frontal system approaches and moves through tonight.

Mostly IFR through the night with rain, heavy at times, and iso TSTM. Precipitation likely mix with or change over to wet snow for morning push at KSWF. Little to no accumulations expected, with a reasonable worst case of a slushy inch on grassy surfaces). Conditions gradually rise through MVFR from w toe Mon AM, to VFR Mon PM.

Strengthening southerly flow this evening, more so from approx KJFK/KLGA eastward. Peak gusts 35 to 45 kt likely for JFK, KISP and KGON until FROPA. LLWS for all but KSWF until the cold front passage. 2kft winds 60kt+ at KISP and KGON, and 45-55kt for the other terminals.

FROPA timing is 1-4Z for western and NYC terminals and 6-10Z for eastern coastal terminals as the cold front slows down. Behind the FROPA, winds shift to the NW-WNW with gusts 25-35kt lasting well into the day Monday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated TSRA possible through around 05z. Peak wind gusts may be more occasional until FROPA. Frequent NW winds gusts around 30 kt, MVFR/IFR conds and shra likely for Mon AM push. VFR with winds and gusts gradually subsiding for Mon aft/eve push.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night: WNW winds 10 to 15 kt in eve gradually diminishing to less than 10kt by daybreak.

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. W to NW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Thursday and Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Continuing with Gale and Storm warnings on the area waters as a strong cold front pushes across the waters tonight. Storm warnings are in effect for the central and eastern ocean zones as well as the south shore bays, Peconic and Garners Bays and the eastern part of Long Island Sound. These locations have the best chances to see wind gusts reach 50 kt, especially from about midnight tonight through early Monday morning. The Storm warnings are up until 11am, however its possible they will be able to be dropped down to a Gale warning earlier. Gales are then expected on all waters through much, if not all of the day Monday, with small craft conditions likely into at least the first of Monday night.

Sub small craft conditions may prevail for a good portion of Tuesday across the waters in all likelihood, with small craft conditions returning through the remainder of the period. Meanwhile W flow gusting up to 25 kt on all waters Tue night, should shift NW by Wed morning after a cold frontal passage. Gusts could peak at 30 kt on the ocean Wed night. Lingering 25 kt gusts are possible, especially on the eastern ocean and the open Sound waters into daytime Thursday.

HYDROLOGY
Across portions Central and Eastern Southern Connecticut, 3 to 5 inches of rainfall is likely, with locally 6+ amounts possible. For Long Island 3 to 4 inches is likely, with locally 4+ inch amounts possible. Most of this rain will fall in a 12 hour period.

Widespread minor urban and riverine flooding is likely for LI, with an isolated to scattered flash flood threat areawide. More widespread flash flood conditions are likely for S CT where, with locally more severe flooding possible, including moderate flooding of several quick responding rivers and streams. There is an elevated threat to life in this area.

Based on the current rainfall forecast main stem rivers across CT are forecast to reach minor and moderate flood stage.

Elsewhere just a minor flood threat for NE NJ, Lowe Hud, and NYC overnight.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A strong cold front will bring a gale to storm force southerly flow into tonight. The system brings potential for localized minor coastal flooding with the Monday morning high tide cycle for the south shore bays of Queens and Nassau, coastal CT and the twin Forks of LI. Winds quickly shift to the W-NW late tonight/early Monday morning before the time of high tide (although will be close along E LI Sound and Twin forks of LI), which will limit magnitude of surge and additive wave impacts during the times of high tide Mon AM.

Surge should build quickly overnight during low tide, but then drop post frontal passage. Storm surge guidance appears to be underdoing the magnitude of surge during low tide, and there is typically erratic surge behavior (double peak) with strong S/SE flow events followed by a strong windshift. Stevens surge guidance has increased by 1/2 ft in many places over the last 12 hrs, (particularly with the 95th percentile), indicative of the predictions challenge.

For that reason, forecast has been heavily leaned to Stevens NYHOPS 95th percentile numbers, and adjusted upward for wave runup on south facing coastlines. This should capture the potential for minor flooding along the south shore bays of Queens and Nassau, coastal CT and the twin Forks of LI.

High coastal water levels, freshwater runoff, and river level rises will likely exacerbate residual flood conditions Monday morning.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for CTZ005>012.
Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST Monday for CTZ008-010-011.
High Wind Warning until 11 AM EST Monday for CTZ012.
NY...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for NYZ067>075-078>081- 176>179.
High Wind Warning until 11 AM EST Monday for NYZ078>081.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for NYZ075-176>179.
NJ...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ331-335-338-355.
Storm Warning until 11 AM EST Monday for ANZ332-340-345-350- 353.

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