Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Great River, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:54PM Thursday August 13, 2020 2:00 PM EDT (18:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:37AMMoonset 3:37PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 113 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
This afternoon..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 113 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A slow moving cold front will remain near the waters this afternoon, then push farther south tonight through Saturday as high pressure tries to build from the north. The high may move east on Sunday, allowing a warm front to approach, followed by a cold front on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Great River, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.15     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 131718 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 118 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. A slowly moving cold front will nearby this afternoon. The front pushes farther south tonight through Saturday as high pressure tries to build in from the north. The high may move east Sunday and allow a warm front to approach, followed by a series of weak cold fronts Monday and Tuesday. High pressure should return on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Strongest convection from earlier this morning has weakened, with some mainly stratiform rain lingering. There are a few isolated cells that could still produce locally heavy rainfall, but the concern for flash flooding has diminished since this morning. Will still need to watch the nearly stalled frontal boundary and sea breeze convergence for additional convection this afternoon. However, limited instability and the passage of a impulse to the east may prevent much coverage heading into the later afternoon hours.

High temperatures will be at or slightly above normal.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Any shower activity should dissipate by around sunset with diminishing instability. A wave of low pressure then moves along the stalled frontal boundary to our south. This could bring an increase of moisture and lift, but thinking that any showers in association with this feature will remain offshore tonight.

For Friday, the wave of low pressure to the south moves a little bit closer to us. Low chances of showers and storms from this, mainly over southern sections of the forecast area. Convergent flow over western sections could also trigger some showers and storms. The steering flow for any storm cells should be a little stronger this time, and overall moisture content of the airmass will be lower this time around, so no concerns of flash flooding at this point. High temperatures will once again be around normal or slightly above it.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The upper flow across the Continental United States is less amplified than previous forecasts resulting in a briefly stalled frontal boundary south of the region Friday night as a ridge builds to the north across the northeast and eastern Canada. This high and upper ridge slides east Sunday as the synoptic flow does begin to amplify with a high amplitude ridge across the western states and extending into the Canadian Pacific while a large trough digs into the northern plains and upper midwest. The surface front passes north as a warm front Sunday, and with the digging trough into the beginning of next week a couple of cold frontal passages are expected Monday and Tuesday. With the upper trough remaining Wednesday unsettled weather will be possible, at this time with mainly afternoon convection.

Near seasonal normal temperatures are expected through the extended forecast period.

AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A weak frontal system remains in vicinity but is expected to drift slowly south before dissipating this afternoon.

Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon, however coverage and intensity is uncertain at the terminals. Generally, activity is expected to weaken this afternoon however, if any thunderstorm directly impacts a terminal, expect IFR ceilings and visibilities. After 22Z activity should rapidly dissipate across the region.

Wind direction forecasts are tricky across the region this afternoon due proximity to the frontal system and scattered thunderstorms. However, winds are expected to be very light at 10kt or less through this evening. E-NE winds developing on Friday, generally near 10 kt.

Potential for fog and stratus developing late tonight with IFR ceilings expected along the coast.

NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing ceilings and visibilities in scattered showers.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing ceilings and visibilities in scattered showers.

KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing ceilings and visibilities in scattered showers.

KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing ceilings and visibilities in scattered showers.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing ceilings and visibilities in scattered showers.

KISP TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing ceilings and visibilities in scattered showers.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. 18 Friday. Chance of showers/tstms with MVFR or lower conditions, mainly NYC metros/KSWF. Saturday. VFR. Sunday and Monday. Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower in any showers/tstms. TUESDAY. VFR.

MARINE. Quiet conds to start, then as E flow increases Fri into Sat, could see SCA conds develop on the ocean water and last for quite some time as we remain in a tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and a series of weak lows passing to the south. E winds Sat into Sat night should reach 20-25 sustained with gusts close to 30 kt.

Ocean seas during this time should reach 3-5 ft late Fri night, and peak at 5-7 ft Sat eve, then remain elevated into Sunday night on all the ocean waters, and out east in to daytime Mon.

It is possible that these conds could last longer than forecast as models trend toward stronger and more persistent E-NE flow.

HYDROLOGY. Earlier heavy rain and localized flash flooding has diminished. While there is still a low chance of flash flooding this afternoon, any coverage will be isolated.

No hydrologic impacts are expected Friday into early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JC/MET NEAR TERM . DS SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . MET AVIATION . IRD MARINE . Goodman/MET HYDROLOGY . JC/MET


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 4 mi45 min Calm G 0 76°F 74°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 28 mi90 min NE 9.7 G 14 75°F 71°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 31 mi42 min NE 1.9 G 5.1 75°F 79°F1018.8 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 32 mi30 min Calm G 1.9 77°F1018.1 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 33 mi45 min NE 7.8 G 12 75°F 74°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi42 min E 2.9 G 6 74°F 1019.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 38 mi30 min N 3.9 G 5.8 74°F1018.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 41 mi42 min SSE 6 G 9.9 77°F 80°F1018.5 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 46 mi42 min 77°F 78°F1019.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 49 mi42 min NE 8 G 8.9 76°F 1018.9 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 49 mi42 min NE 4.1 G 6 77°F 80°F1019.2 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY6 mi64 minN 09.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain79°F73°F85%1018.8 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY14 mi67 minNNE 1010.00 miOvercast77°F71°F82%1018.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi64 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds81°F73°F77%1019.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S7S7S7SW5SW4SW5S5S7S5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmE3SE4SE5SE5S6Calm
1 day agoSW11S13S13
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SW12SW9SW12SW10SW7SW8SW6SW5N8S6S63S3S35SE4
2 days agoSW10S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Great River, Connetquot River, Long Island, New York
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Great River
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:21 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:45 AM EDT     0.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:10 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     0.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:12 AM EDT     0.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:00 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:34 PM EDT     0.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.