Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Great River, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:13PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 6:43 PM EDT (22:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:02PMMoonset 9:33AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 353 Pm Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.gale warning in effect through Thursday evening...
Tonight..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming S late this evening, then becoming W 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 45 kt. Waves around 2 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. Isolated tstms this evening. Rain until early morning, then chance of rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until early morning.
Thu..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SE winds around 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 353 Pm Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Rapidly deepening low pressure lifts north across the area this evening and then tracks more slowly across new england late tonight through Thursday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build to the west and move over the region Friday, remaining through the weekend. Another frontal system affects the area Monday night through Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Great River, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.15     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 162047
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
447 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
Rapidly deepening low pressure lifts north across the area this
evening and then tracks slowly across new england late tonight
through Thursday. High pressure will build into the region Friday,
remaining through the weekend. Another frontal system affects
the area Monday night through Tuesday, followed by high
pressure for the mid week.

Near term through Thursday
A very dynamic system will feature a coupling upper jet structure,
as a frontal wave undergoes explosive coastal development this
evening into the overnight. Models are in good agreement with
the overall evolution and track with subtle timing and intensity
issues. The southern branch jet energy pivoting off the mid
atlantic coast this evening takes the upper trough negative and
eventually closes off a new upper low across new england by
morning.

Moderate to heavy frontal band rains will work across the area
this evening and then transition to comma head rains as the low
wraps up. This will result in widespread rainfall amounts
of 2 to 3 inches, but possibly as high as 3 to 4 inches in
banded rain to the north and west of the low track. The low has
continued to trend north and west the last couple of days, with
the operational suite now in close agreement of a track across
western sections of long island and connecticut. This would keep
the axis of heaviest rainfall across the lower hudson valley,
sw ct, and northeast nj. Still though, the frontal band,
subtrop moisture, and anomalous upper jet (3 to 4 sd), all point
to heavy rain both with the warm conveyor belt ahead of the
deepening low and in the wraparound.

Gridded FFG values for NE nj are 2 to 2 1 2 inches. Thus, a
flash flood watch remains in effect for NE nj. Elsewhere, there
is a lower probability of flash flooding for urban, poor
drainage, and low lying areas.

Much of the rain falls in 6 to 8 hour window and then wraps up
between 10 pm and midnight western sections, to as late 2 am
far east. Comma head rains may linger across northern portions
of the lower hudson valley and interior southwest ct several
hours longer.

Additionally, a robust LLJ on the front end and back side of
the low this evening may briefly produce 40 to 50 kt gusts. The
best chance may be on the back side of the low with a sting jet
signature. A prolonged wind advisory level event then follows
for the remainder of the night into Thursday with frequent gusts
up to 40 kt. Thus, a wind advisory is in effect for the entire
area.

Cold advection and cyclonic flow will keep plenty of clouds
around on Thursday. There will also be some scattered low-top
showers with steep low-level lapse rates.

Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s,
generally a few degrees above normal. Highs on Thursday will
below normal behind the low with the cold advection, ranging
from the mid 50s to around 60.

Short term Thursday night
Low pressure over northern new england will gradually weaken as
it lifts up into the canadian maritimes. As a result, winds
will gradually subside through the night, but still gusting 20
to 30 mph. Lows will generally be in the 40s, fairly homogeneous
with the airmass remaining well mixed.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Low pressure continues to move away from the area, moving into the
canadian maritimes, while high pressure builds into the area on
Friday. There will continue be a strong pressure gradient between
the low and incoming high, so conditions will still be rather
breezy, with winds diminishing in the afternoon. Gusts of 25 to 30
mph are possible.

A northwest flow will keep temperatures near or just below normal
across the area on Friday, with highs in the upper 50s to around 60.

Similar temperatures are expected on Saturday.

Mainly dry conditions expected with high pressure moving overhead
and offshore over the weekend. The one concern is that the GFS is
developing an area of low pressure off the coast of the carolinas,
then heading northeast. Although this is an outlier, there is enough
uncertainty to have low end slight chance pops across most of the
tri-state. The forecast area will be on the northern fringe of this
possible storm, also warranting slight chance pops.

This coastal low is reflected in the ECMWF and canadian, however, it
makes little headway over the southeast u.S., but the retreating
high noses back into the area, keeping the area mostly dry through
Sunday night. The ECMWF does bring in some precipitation on the
northern fringe Sunday night, so although dry right now, slight
chance pops are possible Sunday night.

A more potent system may impact the area Monday into Tuesday, with a
period of moderate to briefly heavy rain. It is too far out to pin
down any details at this time.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
***high impact rain and wind event into Thursday***
an intensifying low pressure system will approach the west this
evening and move across the region tonight.

Clouds will continue to lower and thicken with MVFR CIGS at many of
the terminals. Rain has begun to overspread the region, mainly in
the form of showers west of nyc. Steadier rain will move in through
22-23z. The rain will be heavy at times, before tapering off around
04-06z but MVFR CIGS around 3000 ft may remain through the remainder
of the TAF period. There is a low chance of thunder this evening,
however chances are too low to include in the tafs at this time.

Se winds continue to increase this evening, with gusts at or above
30 kt likely by late evening tonight. Direction will vary as the low
tracks over and through the area. Winds become westerly behind the
system late tonight, and remain so through Thursday. Gusts 35-40 kt
will be possible on Thursday.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 4 mi88 min E 23 G 27 62°F 59°F59°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 28 mi58 min E 16 G 23 64°F 2 ft59°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 31 mi61 min ESE 12 G 17 63°F 63°F1001 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 32 mi53 min SE 23 G 27 65°F 64°F7 ft998.4 hPa (-7.3)
44022 - Execution Rocks 33 mi58 min E 12 G 19 62°F 32°F61°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi55 min SSE 7 G 16 62°F 64°F999.9 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 38 mi33 min SE 25 G 31 64°F 996.8 hPa60°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 41 mi55 min ESE 9.9 G 16 60°F 61°F1001.4 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 46 mi55 min 63°F 64°F998.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 49 mi55 min SE 20 G 31 63°F 998.9 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 49 mi55 min SE 13 G 20 62°F 62°F998.3 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY6 mi1.8 hrsESE 20 G 2710.00 miOvercast and Breezy64°F57°F81%1002 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY14 mi50 minESE 17 G 225.00 miRain Fog/Mist62°F59°F90%999.4 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi1.8 hrsESE 10 G 2410.00 miOvercast65°F55°F73%1002.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmE6E5E6E7SE12SE16
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1 day agoSW8SW7SW5W3CalmN4N7N10N6N6N3N5N3N3N6N7N8NW4N83NW63SW8SW5
2 days agoW3SW5S4S5S4S3S5S6S3SE4SE4E4CalmNW5NE3CalmCalm4S6S7S9S9SW10SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Great River, Connetquot River, Long Island, New York
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Great River
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:00 AM EDT     0.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:26 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:09 PM EDT     0.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.70.60.40.20.1000.20.40.60.70.80.80.70.50.30.20.100.10.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:16 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:36 AM EDT     0.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:53 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:04 PM EDT     0.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.30.20.100.10.20.50.70.80.80.70.60.40.30.20.100.10.30.50.60.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.