Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Great River, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Quick update to adjust temperatures across the area as forecast was running too cool. This is especially true across eastern Long Island and SE CT where winds have stayed up, limiting radiational cooling. Previous discussion follows.

Good model agreement on mid and upper ridging located over much of the northeast shifting east, and flattening as an upper low dives out of the Northern Plains and heads over the Great Lakes.
The ridging aloft allows surface high pressure to move over the area then offshore this afternoon. Mainly dry conditions expected under the subsidence aloft, with surface winds becoming easterly, then southeasterly by this afternoon as the sfc high works east. Clouds will be on the increase during the afternoon as low and mid level moisture increases and a warm front approaches from the southwest. A few of the CAMs (eg, 00Z HRRR)
are depicting some shower activity across eastern LI, and interior CT Monday afternoon in advance of the warm front, but a dry subcloud layer should limit any shower activity.

Under the easterly flow, highs at the coast should be in the mid and upper 50s, with perhaps a few degrees higher for NYC and points across the interior.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Winds become southerly then southwesterly overnight Monday into early Tuesday as moisture advection commences and the warm front shifts through, then north, of the area. Aloft, the flow becomes more zonal in nature, as the upper low heads toward Quebec. Guidance has been fairly consistent showing the core of light precipitation with this system associated with a pre-frontal trough, which looks to work through late Monday into early Tuesday morning, clearing the coast by mid to late morning. Given that the best forcing is north of the region and PWATS are generally less than 1", precipitation amounts look light (around 0.1-0.25"), with highest amounts over CT and the Lower Hudson Valley. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 70s, to near 80 across the urban NYC corridor. The cold front then passes through the area by Tuesday afternoon, and winds become westerly by Tuesday night. Adjusted the NBM temperatures up toward the 75th percentile, in line with the previous forecast, given that much of the day Tuesday the cold front slowly works east.

High pressure then builds over the northeast on Wednesday, resulting in another dry day locally, with highs in the lower 70s under weak northerly flow.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to the previous forecast/NBM.

The long term period starts off with high pressure over the region with dry conditions and mostly clear skies for Wednesday night and Thursday. The high starts to slide east Thursday night and Friday, with another shortwave/low pressure system approaching for Friday into Saturday. The surface low is expected to pass north of the region with its associated cold front moving across the area during the day Saturday. 00z ECMWF is slightly faster than the 00z GFS timing of the front for Saturday afternoon, but only by a difference of a few hours.

Overall, expected clouds to gradually increase Thursday night and early Friday, with POPs gradually increasing Friday afternoon. For now, looking at just some chance POPs Friday afternoon and into the first part of Friday night. POPs increase further after midnight Friday night into Saturday as a cold front approaches and moves across the region. POPs gradually taper off Saturday night with drier conditions expected for Sunday.

Temperatures remain at or above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure over the terminals will push east today. A warm front approaches tonight and lifts north of the terminals Tuesday morning.

VFR today. MVFR/IFR conditions tonight, along with some showers.

Light and variable winds this morning become SE after 13z and increase through the day. Wind speeds around 10-13 kt expected in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt are possible, mainly at NYC and coastal terminals. Tonight, winds diminish, falling below 10kt. Wind become more southerly tonight, then SW to W with the passage of a warm front early Tuesday morning.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts this afternoon/evening may be occasional.

Timing of potential showers and MVFR this evening/overnight may be off by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Tuesday: Lingering shower possible early, mainly east of NYC terminals. Becoming VFR in the morning. SW-W wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Chance of MVFR and showers, mainly in the late afternoon into the night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through Wednesday.
Occasional gusts to 25kts are possible for a short period on the ocean waters in advance of a frontal system on Tuesday.

Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels Wednesday night through Friday. SCA conditions will then be possible Friday night into Saturday with a frontal system moving across the area waters.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic issues through next weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.