Wednesday, July8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Shore, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:27PM Wednesday July 8, 2020 4:16 AM EDT (08:16 UTC) Moonrise 11:07PMMoonset 8:49AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 949 Pm Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers late this evening and early morning.
Wed..S winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SE winds around 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds around 10 kt, becoming se with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with chance of tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of tstms. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..E winds around 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with chance of tstms in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 949 Pm Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak warm front lifts north overnight. A surface trough will then pass near or just north of the area Wednesday afternoon, followed by weak high pressure through Thursday. Low pressure will then approach from the south Friday into Saturday, followed by a series of weak fronts moving through from later Saturday into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Shore, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 080543 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 143 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak warm front lifts north overnight. A surface trough will then pass near or just north of the area Wednesday afternoon, followed by weak high pressure through Thursday. Low pressure will then approach from the south Friday into Saturday, followed by a series of weak fronts moving through from later Saturday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. An area of showers advancing NE ahead of a warm front over central NJ will pass through New London County in CT during the next hour, possibly producing a quick tenth of an inch. Showers right along the warm front were also dissipating across the Trenton area. A pop up shower can't be ruled out overnight with the passage of the warm front.

With plenty of cloud cover and patchy fog, overnight lows will only fall to around 70 degrees.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. A weak warm front lifts north of the area by Wednesday morning, followed by a shortwave trough approaching from the west in the afternoon. With better upper level support, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon, especially for areas from New York City north and west. Convection is then expected to diminish after sunset as the shortwave pushes east, allowing ridging to build in aloft for Wednesday night.

With the exception of the immediate south-facing coastlines, temperatures on Wednesday are expected to rise into the mid to upper 80s area wide. Combined with dewpoints around 70, this should produce heat index values in the upper 80s to lower 90s across much of the area, with a few locations across portions of northeast New Jersey possibly seeing heat index values touch the mid 90s. Overnight lows will provide little relief, only falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A moderate rip current risk is expected again on Wednesday due to relatively long period SE-S swell of 3 ft and S flow 10-15 kt.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure builds briefly on Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday are forecast to rise to the upper 80s and lower 90s. Heat index values should reach the mid and upper 90s across the interior and the lower 90s elsewhere. There is the potential for some isolated to widely sct showers/tstms off higher terrain and perhaps sea breeze boundaries anticipated in an unstable, but capped and weakly sheared environment Thursday afternoon and evening.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic Ocean beaches on Thursday as long period southerly swell continues.

Low pressure moves up the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday, passing over the region Friday night into Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially Friday afternoon and evening likely just north east of the sfc low as it taps into a warm conveyor belt of Gulf and subtropical Atlantic moisture. Still low confidence on location of this heavy rain potential, as well as potential for breezy conditions on the east side of the low, as a potential 30-40 kt LLJ develops.

An upper-level trough and its associated cold front will move into the area Saturday, resulting in hot and humid conditions and the increase chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. The cold front will move off to the east Monday, but the upper-level trough will remain overhead bringing a potential for diurnal convection as well as a gradual trend to a more seasonable airmass through early next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A weak warm front across Long Island into north central NJ will slowly work northward and pass through the terminals overnight.

Ahead of the warm front, much of the area has either IFR or MVFR conditions with not much improvement expected until the warm frontal passage. Confidence on the time of improvement is low as clearing could very well be delayed until around daybreak with the onset of daytime heating. At the very least, do expect VFR conditions to develop across all terminals by mid to late morning. Once we do improve to VFR, we should remain VFR for much of the day.

A pop-up shower cannot be ruled out during the night as well, but chances are too low to mention in any one TAF. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday afternoon, especially north and west of NYC with the approach of a trough. E-SE winds of 5-10kt will veer around to the S by daybreak with the warm frontal passage. Winds increase to around 10 kt Wednesday with a few gusts into the teens possible in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Wednesday Night-Thursday. Chance of MVFR afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly from the NYC metros north/west. Friday-Saturday. MVFR or lower conditions likely in showers along with a few thunderstorms. Chance E-SE gusts 20-25kt for Friday into Friday night. Sunday. MVFR or lower possible at times with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through Wednesday night with winds generally remaining below 20 kt and ocean seas 3-4 feet.

SCA seas are likely Friday and into early next week with a persistent S/SW flow and strengthening wind fields owing to a possible coastal low nearing the region.

HYDROLOGY. A localized urban and poor drainage flood threat exists with any isolated thunderstorm activity through Thursday.

There is increasing potential for more widespread heavy rain Friday into Saturday as low pressure moves up the coast. More details as the week progresses.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . FEB NEAR TERM . FEB/DW SHORT TERM . FEB LONG TERM . Fig AVIATION . BC MARINE . FEB/Fig HYDROLOGY . FEB EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 24 mi47 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 70°F 1 ft70°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 28 mi32 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 71°F 71°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 29 mi47 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 1017.4 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 32 mi47 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 70°F1016.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi147 min S 9.7 G 14 75°F 1017.2 hPa74°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi157 min S 12 G 14 76°F1016.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi47 min 74°F1016.9 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi47 min N 1.9 G 5.1 73°F1016.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi47 min S 6 G 8 1016.6 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi47 min S 6 G 7 76°F1017.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi47 min 77°F1016.7 hPa
MHRN6 49 mi47 min S 4.1 G 5.1

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi24 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast77°F72°F85%1017.2 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi21 minSW 610.00 miOvercast75°F73°F96%1017.1 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi21 minS 610.00 miOvercast74°F71°F91%1017.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4E5E6SE7E8SE10E8SE10SE9SE10SE11SE11SE9SE7E8E6E4E3S7S7S9S8S10S8
1 day agoCalmN3N3NE5NE9NE4SE33S10SE8SE11SE12SE15SE9E11SE9E9SE10SE9E9SE11E7SE8E5
2 days agoSW6S5SW6SW7W11W6W4CalmS7S9S8SW9S9S11S11S7S6S5S4S4S4SW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York (2)
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Bay Shore
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:41 AM EDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:17 PM EDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:32 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.110.80.60.30.1-0-00.20.40.60.80.90.90.80.60.40.20.10.10.30.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Coast Guard Station
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:48 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:50 AM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:53 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:01 PM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.40.90.40-0.10.20.61.11.51.81.91.71.410.60.30.20.40.81.31.722.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.