Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Shore, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 7:41PM Friday August 23, 2019 9:59 AM EDT (13:59 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:48PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 719 Am Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers until late afternoon.
Tonight..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sun..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..NE winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 719 Am Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves south of the waters this morning. High pressure then builds to the north this afternoon through this weekend, and across the canadian maritimes early next week. Low pressure may pass south and east of the waters Tuesday into Tuesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Shore, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 231134
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
734 am edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front continues to move to the south of long island this
morning. High pressure builds to the north this afternoon through
the weekend, and across the canadian maritimes early next week.

Low pressure may pass south and east of the local area during
the middle of next week, followed by a slow moving cold front
late in the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Scattered showers currently streaming across the lower hudson
valley and southern connecticut will gradually sink south and
east through the morning as the cold front moves offshore and
upper level support gradually wanes. Increased pops across much
of the area through at least mid morning as the front so far has
been slower to progress than initially thought. Still thinking
that the bulk of the precipitation moves offshore by noon or
shortly thereafter. Otherwise the forecast remains on track,
with lower dewpoint air beginning to advect into the interior
behind the front.

The next forecast challenge today will revolve around the degree of
cloud cover. The proximity of the upper jet will likely be enough to
support abundant middle and high level cloud cover well into the
afternoon. This is supported by bufkit time heights of the nam,
hrrr, rap, and GFS indicating a high amount of moisture from around
15 kft to 30 kft. This moisture does not diminish until this evening
and the best chance for seeing significant clearing would be across
the NW interior late in the day. Have gone with mostly cloudy
conditions through the day for much of the area.

High temperatures will be in the 70s today, much cooler than recent
days.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at atlantic ocean
beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
The core of the strongest winds aloft push offshore this evening.

The bulk of the middle and upper level cloud cover should follow
with clearing skies. High pressure also builds closer to the
northeast as the upper trough settles over new england. With mostly
clear skies, light winds, and a dry airmass, low temperatures should
fall well into the 50s inland and near 60 along the coast. The nyc
metro may only fall into the middle 60s.

Saturday will feature high pressure and temperatures a few degrees
below normal for this time of year. Highs will reach the middle and
upper 70s. There will likely be just a few to scattered fair weather
clouds as the atmosphere overall is dry through the afternoon.

There is a low risk of rip currents at atlantic ocean beaches.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
High pressure builds north of the region Saturday night, then
continues to move east into the canadian maritimes through the day
on Monday. This will create an environment favorable for the
development of stratus and drizzle light rain as easterly flow sets
up over the region. Several models indicate the potential for light
qpf during the Sunday-Sunday night timeframe, with the best chances
from nyc on east.

As the high moves offshore on Monday, an area of low pressure
developing along the southeast coast will begin to lift to the
north, while at the same time a trough will begin digging across the
northern plains. Significant differences remain with the timing and
amplitude of the upper trough as well as with the strength, timing,
and track of the low as it lifts north. While the model consensus
continues to track the coastal low south and east of the local area,
it will have to be monitored for tropical development through the
weekend.

A cold front then approaches the area late in the period, although
the timing of this feature remains uncertain due to the
aforementioned differences aloft.

With the potential for plenty of cloud cover, temperatures on Sunday
and Monday will be several degrees below normal, with highs
generally remaining in the mid 70s. Temperatures then gradually
moderate through the mid week period.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
A cold front settles just south of the region as high pressure
builds to the north.

Patchy morning stratus may result in brief MVFR conditions.

Otherwise,VFR with lingering scattered light showers expected this
morning, tapering off and passing south by afternoon.

Mid and high clouds are then expected this afternoon. Clear at
night.

Northerly winds around 10 kt will lighten somewhat as the morning
progresses. These winds may back to the W NW for a short time in the
afternoon, but then shift back to the N NE by evening around 10 kt.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 8 mi74 min N 7.8 G 12 69°F 80°F62°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 29 mi65 min ENE 7 G 11 67°F 75°F1017.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 32 mi65 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 65°F 76°F1015.8 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi69 min N 16 G 19 71°F 74°F3 ft1015.2 hPa (+2.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi49 min N 14 G 18 71°F 74°F1015.8 hPa62°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi65 min 67°F 77°F1016.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi65 min N 5.1 G 6 65°F 75°F1015.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi65 min NNW 12 G 14 67°F 1016.3 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi65 min N 7 G 11 70°F 79°F1016.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi65 min 68°F 77°F1016.5 hPa
MHRN6 49 mi65 min N 8.9 G 11

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi66 minN 710.00 miOvercast67°F59°F76%1016.2 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi63 minN 710.00 miOvercast66°F61°F84%1016 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi63 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast67°F60°F79%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW73W7W9NW6
G15
SW9SW10S10SW13W5S5S64NE6CalmW4NW4NW4NW4N10N7NE5NE9N7
1 day agoSW9SW12SW14
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2 days agoNE7N84E4S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York (2)
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Bay Shore
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:36 AM EDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:50 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:59 PM EDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:04 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.60.70.80.80.80.60.40.30.20.20.20.40.60.80.910.90.80.60.50.30.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Coast Guard Station
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:10 AM EDT     1.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:11 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:32 PM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:25 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.71.71.41.10.70.40.30.40.611.41.81.91.91.81.41.10.80.60.50.50.71

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.