Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 10:46 PM   Moonset 6:51 AM

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LEZ142 Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh-reno Beach To The Islands Oh- 336 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Saturday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 52 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 260451 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1251 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Much warmer temperatures this weekend with highs around 80.

- Periodic chances for rain and a few storms, particularly Friday night and Monday.

- The risk of severe weather is low at this time.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

On the heels of a freeze warning and frost advisory from this morning and with the shifted pattern for tonight, a good question to posit is if we return to frost conditions again tonight. Well, as opposed to being in the trough with various areas of mid level vorticity to support high clouds last night, tonight will have mid level ridging around with NAM and GFS bufkit soundings indicating decoupling is possible. This is in frost formation's favor, however, increasing gradient is not. As an upper level low pressure system lifts northeast out of the Southern Plains, the gradient starts tightening after 6z from west to east and a low level jet approaches by 12z Friday. This also may be able to spread some high clouds in west of US-31 to also stunt any remaining cooling after 6z there. Temperatures could also crater not too long after sunset with the dry air around. With these thoughts in mind, have hoisted a frost advisory to cover areas generally north of US-30 and east of US-31.

Moving forward, for Friday, a warm front encroaches on the area spreading moisture into the area. PWATs between 1.25 and 1.5 inches which is 1 to 3 SDs above climatological norms help indicate the moisture to be tapped into. Surface convergence arrives during the afternoon especially for areas along and south of US-30 and then continues moving northeastward through 6z. While some embedded thunder may be possible as this front passes through, much of the instability will stay to our west through 12z Saturday. Given this and the fact that the better moisture still hasn't arrived yet, QPF totals stay below 0.5 inch and taper off quickly southeast of our 2nd tier of counties away from Lake MI.

For Saturday, more instability looks to be able to work into areas west of I-69 with the best instability looking to be in the aforementioned lake-adjacent counties. West of I-69, better columnar moisture looks to move in with surface dew points surpassing 60 degrees and 850 mb dew points surpassing 10C. However, we lose the better forcing between 12 and 18z with it going northeast of the area so would expect coverage of rainfall to decrease unless we can get an outflow boundary to move through. If we can get some thunderstorms to form, it looks like there'll be around 30 kts of effective shear to work with. SPC has those aforementioned lake-adjacent counties covered with a marginal chance of severe weather for Saturday. The shear would make damaging wind the most likely outcome from severe storms, but perhaps a tornado with SRH around 200 m2/s2 and sub- 1000m LCLs, as well as a few sporadic reports of hail with 6 to 7 C/km mid level lapse rates attempting to move in, but that moist low levels may remove that possibility.

Moving forward, for Saturday night, the moisture axis shifts from along our western counties to along and north of US-6 by Sunday morning, which would allow for a break for much of the forecast area from rain, especially those south of US-6. Now, there is still some 700 to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE to work with on the ECMWF model Sunday so if there is a lingering boundary, perhaps we could tap into that for some storms then. We'll have to wait for a better chance for rain along an area of upper divergence as it swings through ahead of the main cold front late Sunday night/Monday. This area of moisture does look to stall out overhead and may be able to have some instability to work with. The GFS has an axis of 30 kts of effective shear east of I-69 during the afternoon so perhaps some severe weather could be had as well.

All told, through these successive rainfall events from later Friday into Tuesday morning, the NBM doesn't have more than 10 to 20 percent chance of 1 inch in 24 hours. Would think these percentages might be a little higher should convective rain be added to the equation. That helps to draw a picture for how little rain we get with the main limiting factor being the forcing.

While the GFS forms what appears to be convective rain with sporadic weak vort maxes moving through in the mid level flow, think that the next best chance for rain holds off until the Tuesday night through Wednesday time frame as another cold front moves through. With the speed of the front, perhaps a few thunderstorms could form early afternoon south of US-24 Wednesday as long as clouds break up to allow instability to form.

Temperatures during this forecast period trend warmer from today's 50s to tomorrow 60s to around 70 degrees. Then from Saturday through the end of the forecast period, 70s for highs will be in play. No threat for additional frost occurrences is forecast.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1248 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions will dominate through 21z thanks to high pressure. Ceilings quickly drop as clouds move in ahead of our next weather system. A warm front will begin to surge north late in afternoon, with some indications of rain trying to take shape near after 00Z Saturday especially at KSBN. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible too. The timing of the rain may need to be adjusted later as some models have drier air creeping in later in the period. Any showers that develop before 00Z Saturday are unlikely to reach the surface. In addition, winds will become increasing gusty during the afternoon/evening today, with gusts up to 25-30 knots possible in the 00-06Z Saturday timeframe.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ005>009-017- 018-025>027-116-216.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ078>081.
MARINE...None.

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