Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bellport, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
A shortwave is currently tracking to the north of the area overnight as a highly amplifies ridge moves offshore. A warm front the Delmarva region moves into the region and becomes nearly stationary in the vicinity. Latest CAMS show a weakening cold front moving into the area early in the morning, with the front becoming nearly parallel to the lower and upper flow. The front then stalls and looks to wash out over the eastern half of the area late today into Tuesday night. Also, with the latest guidance and radar trends showing scattered to isolated shower activity for the overnight, have lowered probabilities considerably, and changed to coverage wording.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Key Messages:

* Dry conditions and well above seasonable temps on Tuesday and Wednesday

Great Lakes closed low slides east through Ontario/Quebec on Tuesday into Wednesday while weakening. At the surface, a resultant weakening low pressure slides E through Quebec and Northern New England Tuesday into Tuesday Night, and thru the Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday.

Locally, warm front pushes north Tuesday AM, with weakening cold front stalling over the area Tuesday. Secondary cold front crosses Tuesday Night with Canadian high pressure noses in from the NW on Wednesday.

Drying conditions Tuesday with deep WSW flow. Morning stratus should give way to a veil of high clouds, deep mixing and still mild 850mb temps (10C dropping to 8c in the late aft), which will result in unseasonably warm temps (mid to upper 70s) for all but south and eastern coastal areas on gusty westerly flow.
Temps should challenge the daily record high of 75F for KISP.
Southern and eastern coastal areas could be into the mid 70s as well (warmer than current forecast) if westerly flow is stronger than modeled, but with weakening cold front in the region this could allow for more backed (maritime) flow for these area. Leaned towards 50-75th percentile NBM based on downslope flow regime. Once again, NBM deterministic max T are generally running in the lowest 25th quartile, which appears low based on above.

Weak cold front sags south of the region Tuesday Night. With mixed low-levels and little change in airmass, continued mild conditions likely with lows in the mid to upper 40s for much of the area, lower 50s NYC/NJ metro.

High pressure builds west and south of the region on Wednesday. NW flow to start the day will give way to afternoon sea breeze development as thermal troughing develops. Plenty of sunshine, filtered by a veil of high clouds, should allow temps to warm up quickly areawide before that with deep mixing towards 850 mb (7-9 C). High temps should be able to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70 for the coast before seabreeze development knocks temps back down, and lower to mid 70s for NYC/NJ metro and interior to the north of sea breeze. Leaned towards 50-75th percentile NBM based on weak offshore flow regime.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The long term period starts off with high pressure over the region with dry conditions and mostly clear skies for Wednesday night and Thursday. The high starts to slide east Thursday night and Friday, with another shortwave/low pressure system approaching for Friday into Saturday. The surface low is expected to pass north of the region with its associated warm front moving through on Friday and cold front moving across the area during the day Saturday. 12Z global guidance still varies on timing with some models such as the 12Z GFS having the front push through 15-18Z Saturday, while other models don't have it until after 00Z Sunday. This means the timing of likely POPs, chance for thunder, and Saturday's highs could still shift some from what is currently forecast.

Overall, clouds will gradually increase Thursday night and early Friday, with POPs gradually increasing Friday afternoon. For now, looking at just some chance POPs Friday evening. POPs increase further after midnight Friday night into Saturday as a cold front approaches and moves across the region. POPs taper on Saturday night.

Mainly rain showers expected, but some instability along with lift from FROPA could lead to a few rumbles of thunder on Saturday. The chances for this will become more clear as the event nears.

High pressure returns Sunday from the Great Lakes region under NW flow leading to dry weather and sunshine to end the weekend on.

Temperatures remain at or above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A weak warm front lifts across the area this morning, while the trailing cold front dissipates across the area. A secondary cold front pushes through Tuesday evening.

Widespread MVFR with occasional IFR conditions through about 14Z, followed by improvement to VFR. KGON may take as long as 17Z to improve to VFR. Chance of SHRA through about 10Z.

Light and variable winds across all but KISP, where it will start off SSW 5-10kt. Winds veer to the SW toward daybreak with the warm frontal passage, then veer to the W-WSW by late morning/early afternoon. KBDR and KGON may hold on to a hybrid seabreeze out of the SW until winds veer more in the afternoon ahead of an approaching secondary cold front. Winds then become NW-NNW 5-10kt after 00Z.

There is a brief chance of SW LLWS at the eastern terminals through about 09Z, with 2Kft winds 230 at around 40 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Best chance of showers to the east of NYC terminals.

IFR conditions could become prevailing through about 12Z.

Onset of W gusts later this morning may be delayed by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Late Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.

Friday: VFR during the day. A chance of MVFR and showers, at night.

Saturday: MVFR or lower in showers. An isolated thunderstorm is possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
No changes to the winds and seas overnight into Tuesday.

Occasional gusts to 25kts are possible for a short period on the ocean waters in advance of a frontal system overnight, thus not enough confidence for SCA.

Thereafter, otherwise conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through Friday in a weak pressure regime.

The next chance for SCA conditions will be Friday night into Saturday with a frontal system moving across the waters.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic issues through next weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.