Trevorton, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Trevorton, PA

June 17, 2024 11:06 PM EDT (03:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM
Moonrise 3:34 PM   Moonset 1:26 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1034 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight - .

Rest of tonight - S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Wed - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Thu - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Fri - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 1034 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will remain anchored offshore through the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters each afternoon and evening Tuesday through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trevorton, PA
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Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 180238 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1038 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
*Long duration and potentially dangerous heat wave this week *Near-record high temperatures 90+ degrees into the weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
1030 pm update... Convection has weakened considerably, with lightning activity now almost completely gone, and just a few residual showers across the northern tier. We expect all showers/storms to have dissipated before midnight.

We did speed up the fog timing a bit for many of our northern zones, with locally heavy rain earlier this evening, and patchy fog already developing.

It will be a muggy night, with lows generally ranging from the mid 60s over the northern mountains, to the lower 70s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

8 pm update... Broken convective band has intensified a bit in the last 30 minutes or so, as activity encounters a synoptic stationary front (convergent dew point boundary) over central PA, plus localized outflow, within a sufficiently unstable environment. The threat for locally severe wind gusts/hail should be with us until 8:30-9 pm.

Thereafter, we still anticipate a weakening trend, as the environment stabilizes diurnally, and also becomes generally less favorable into eastern PA with a drier column in place.

6 pm update... A broken band of showers and thunderstorms, tied to an upper-level disturbance over Lake Ontario, extends from western and central NY, through western and north-central PA, then back into OH at 6 pm. An isolated strong or perhaps marginally severe storm could still impact areas north of I-80 and about as far east as the I-99 corridor through 8 pm or so.
Thereafter, waning instability and the development of weak subsidence behind the aforementioned disturbance should cause any residual storms to weaken and dissipate.

We still anticipate some patchy fog later tonight, owing to increasing surface dew points, locally wet ground conditions, and light surface flow.

Lows by daybreak should generally range from 65 to 70.

Previous discussion... Still anticipate a gradual uptick in [isolated] convection over the NW Alleghenies this afternoon on the southern periphery of remnant MCV moving eastward across southern Ontario. SPC has maintained the MRGL risk SWO and recently sent MCD #1302 which included a portion of Warren County. The limited vertical shear generally <20kt and weak forcing for ascent suggest storm organization will remain limited and therefore a WW is not expected (20% probability).
Recent radar loop showed a couple of t-storms developing near KBFD which is reporting a dewpoint of 70F. One of those storms briefly pulsed up over northern Elk County with a 50dBZ core reaching the -20C level, prompting a short duration SPS.

Isolated to scattered convection mainly over northwest PA should fade with loss of heating after sunset. Mostly clear skies, light wind and surging low level moisture will likely result in patchy valley fog late tonight. A muggy night with low temps in the 65-70F range or +10-15F above climo in most spots.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
The heat and humidity are progged to build through midweek, as the center of the subtropical high lifts north over PA. Current guidance indicates heat indices will reach 95 to around 100F especially in the valley locations during the afternoons Tue- Thu. We extended the heat advisory through 8pm Thursday which aligns well with neighboring WFOs to the west, north, and east.

Model guidance continues to favor isolated to scattered diurnal t-storm risk Tue-Thu downwind of Lake Erie and over the higher terrain along the spine of the Alleghenies. Thursday looks like the hottest day of the period with maxT 90-95F or +10-20F above climo.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Medium range guidance continues to show that a prolonged heat wave will continue throughout at least early this weekend. A 595-600 dm 500 mb ridge looks to begin breaking down by late week, but temperatures will still easily reach the 90s across most of the region each day with heat indices in the upper 90s and low 100s.

Northern PA will stand the best chance of any afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms through the period closer to an approaching upper trough and farther away from the core of the upper ridge. Better rain chances and possibly a reprieve in the heat could materialize by late weekend or early next week depending on the evolution of the aforementioned trough to our north/northwest.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Some TSRA/SHRA remain across mainly the northern tier and south of UNV/east of AOO this evening. Precipitation moving into drier air keeps mentions of precipitation out of IPT/MDT/LNS, with moderate-to-high (60-70%) confidence at MDT/LNS and low-to- moderate (30-40%) confidence at IPT. The best timing for any precipitation at IPT will be in the 1Z-3Z timeframe with SHRA generally expected.

Winds have already started to diminish this evening, allowing for some patchy fog formation across areas where rain has fallen with clearing skies as the evening progresses. Higher (70+%)
confidence in some restrictions at BFD has allowed for IFR mentions, and could realistically see LIFR conds in the 09Z-11Z Tuesday timeframe. There is still some uncertainty as a light wind could limit these restrictions, so have opted to keep a period of MVFR-to-IFR restrictions for the 00Z cycle. Airfields along the Laurels (JST/AOO) could also see some restrictions but a light wind is more likely to keep restrictions minimal overnight.

VFR conds will prevail areawide after 12Z Tuesday, but cannot rule out isolated to scattered storms early Tuesday afternoon over similar areas as Monday. If storms do develop, generally expect less widespread coverage and low confidence (< 20%) does not warrant a mention in this TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Wed-Sat...Predominantly VFR, with building heat and iso TSRA.
Density altitude concerns possible.

CLIMATE
A period of much warmer than average temperatures is expected across much of central Pennsylvania next week, with record high temperatures being challenged. The record high temperatures for some sites across central PA are outlined below:

Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21

Harrisburg 97/1957 98/1994 98/1931 98/1923 Williamsport 97/2018 96/1929 101/1923 97/1933 State College 94/1923 94/1931 94/1953 94/1988

Highest Max Temperature for June:

State College 96 in 1952 (26th) and 1933 (29th)
Harrisburg 100 in 1966 (27th), 1952 (26th), and 1934 (29th)
Williamsport 104 in 1925 (5th)
Altoona 97 in 1971 (28th) and 1953 (21st)
Bradford 93 in 2022 (22nd)

Longest run of consecutive days with max temp >=90 in June:

State College 6 (24-29th 1966)
Harrisburg 10* (19-28th 1943)
Williamsport 9 (18-26th 1923)
Altoona 8 (13-20th 1994)
Bradford 0 (has not occurred in POR since 1957)

*Harrisburg had a run of 11 days that started on 26th and ended on July 6th in 1901

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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Wind History graph: SEG
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Tide / Current for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
   
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Port Deposit
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Mon -- 02:04 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:13 AM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:15 PM EDT     1.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:41 PM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet
12
am
1
1
am
0.8
2
am
0.7
3
am
0.8
4
am
1.3
5
am
1.9
6
am
2.6
7
am
3
8
am
3.3
9
am
3.2
10
am
3
11
am
2.8
12
pm
2.4
1
pm
2.1
2
pm
1.8
3
pm
1.6
4
pm
1.5
5
pm
1.5
6
pm
1.8
7
pm
2
8
pm
2.1
9
pm
2
10
pm
1.8
11
pm
1.4


Tide / Current for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
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Mon -- 12:35 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:12 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:36 PM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet
12
am
0.6
1
am
0.6
2
am
0.8
3
am
1.1
4
am
1.6
5
am
2
6
am
2.3
7
am
2.4
8
am
2.3
9
am
2.1
10
am
1.8
11
am
1.4
12
pm
1.1
1
pm
0.8
2
pm
0.7
3
pm
0.8
4
pm
1
5
pm
1.3
6
pm
1.6
7
pm
1.8
8
pm
1.8
9
pm
1.6
10
pm
1.4
11
pm
1


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State College, PA,




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