Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Trevorton, PA
December 10, 2023 5:56 AM EST (10:56 UTC)
Sunrise 7:15AM Sunset 4:40PM Moonrise 4:51AM Moonset 2:48PM
ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 334 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Monday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt... Increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Monday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt... Increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 334 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
a strong frontal system will impact the waters today into Monday. Periods of gales are likely during this time. High pressure will return Tuesday through Thursday next week. A small craft advisory will likely be needed Monday night.
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
a strong frontal system will impact the waters today into Monday. Periods of gales are likely during this time. High pressure will return Tuesday through Thursday next week. A small craft advisory will likely be needed Monday night.
Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 100750 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 250 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
A relatively mild and tranquil start to the weekend will precede a strong frontal system that will bring a soaking rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, accumulating/elevation dependent snow and 30-40 mph wind gusts Sunday into Monday. Seasonably colder air and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie will linger through Monday night; otherwise the weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday will feature seasonal temperatures and high confidence in an extended period of dry weather/no precip.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
High clouds continue to stream in from west to east this evening. Partial clearing, combined with increasing dewpoints in southerly flow, has led to development of some mist/fog across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Showers are just beginning to cross the PA/OH border as of 9PM.
A very mild night is in store for early December with considerable clouds and precip probs ramping up from west to east after midnight through early Sunday morning. There will be a weak instability axis accompanying a strong 40-50kt LLJ and 1" pwat plume across the CWA overnight which could result in some rumbles of thunder and enhanced rain rates. Have included the mention of thunder in far northwest PA, but any such activity would be few and far between. Low clouds and fog/drizzle/mist may redevelop early tonight across the interior central and eastern valleys, but will eventually be scoured out by an increasing southerly gradient flow.
An anomalous temperature trend is expected overnight as temperatures stay approximately constant in northwest PA and rise overnight across the central and eastern zones.
Temperatures are in the upper 30s to low 40s this evening in southeast PA and will rise 15 to 20 degrees by daybreak Sunday.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
*Flood watch in effect for a portion of east-central PA from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
There is good agreement in the aforementioned cold front moving across CPA on Sunday as the associated longwave mid/upper trough becomes negatively tilted and waves of low pressure ripple north along the boundary. Whereas previous guidance indicated this would be an anafrontal system with precipitation lagging behind the front, this system is taking on characteristics more typical of a coastal low. At the upper levels, a coupled jet structure will pair the left exit region and right entrance region of two jet streaks leading to efficient diffluence aloft. As a result, the coastal low should deepen considerable as it races northward into New England. As it deepens, cold air will infiltrate from west to east and change rain to snow across the forecast area Sunday night into early Monday morning.
Storm track has stayed fairly consistent for the last couple of runs, favoring QPF of just over 2" across eastern PA and lesser amounts farther west. Rainfall totals will we slightly lower than QPF as a result of an anticipated changeover to snow. Isolated minor (urban/poor drainage and river) flooding is possible along and east of the mainstem Susquehanna Valley where the Flood watch remains in effect (see hydro section for more info). As model trends continue to favor colder temperatures (more snow)
and an eastward track, the risk of flooding continues to decrease.
Colder air will pour into the area behind the front Sunday night behind increasingly gusty NW flow. This will result in a rain to snow transition from west to east across the entire CWA between 00-12Z Monday. There remains some uncertainty with how the interplay between moisture and colder air materializes. Recent high-resolution guidance favors little to no snow west of the I-99 corridor and more widespread accumulation to the east.
Elevation will be a significant delineating factor for snow accums. Official expected forecast shows at least few inches (borderline advisory) the from the Laurel Highlands into the Endless mtns/western Poconos. The most consistent signal for advisory level snow has been over Sullivan County, where 4"+ appear increasingly likely. It's possible some of the highest terrain over east- central PA picks up a couple inches with a large spread or gradient between ridgetop and valley. Snowfall amounts have trended lower over the NW mtns inkind with weaker ensemble QPF signal for the synoptic snow, while ramping up across the eastern part of the area.
Peak wind gusts late Sunday night into Monday (especially later Monday morning and Monday afternoon as the colder air dramatically deepens and taps stronger winds aloft) are forecast in the 35 to 40 mph range (just under Wind Advisory Criteria).
As winds become northwesterly behind the exiting system, lake effect snow showers are likely on Monday before fading into Monday night. High-resolution guidance indicates the potential for lake effect streams to reach as far southeast as the I-80/I-99 corridor. Sufficient instability could also lead to an increase risk of snow squalls. The Snow Squall Parameter lights up northwest and Central PA downwind of Lake Erie during the day on Monday. Additional accumulation of a dusting to an inch or two is possible with lake effect snow during the day on Monday.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHSN diminish at the beginning of the long term as winds back to the SW and dry air establishes itself. High pressure will then provide an extended stretch of dry weather through the end of the work week. There does look to be one shot of reinforcement to the cold air arriving Tues PM which could make some SHSN in the NW. So, while temps will moderate a few degs on Tuesday to maxes of 35-45F, we'll drop back 3-5F on Wed. Then, temps crawl back up into the 40s for Fri. The next significant chance for precip will arrive for the second half of next weekend when many models begin to generate a coastal low in/near the Carolinas. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the precipitation type and track of the low, but the system bears watching over the next week or so.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The main focus during the predawn hours this morning will be on lingering low clouds/fog over the Susq Valley and developing low cigs over the N Mtns, as an increasingly moist southerly flow works into the state ahead of an approaching cold front.
Current observations, combined with light wind and breaks in the clouds argue for continued IFR vsbys at KMDT early this morning. Over the NW Mtns, upstream observations and the latest RAP suggest IFR/LIFR cigs will become likely at KBFD between 08Z-09Z. Also of concern this morning will be the likelihood of widespread LLWS associated with the passage of a core of strong southwesterly winds aloft.
A wave of low pressure on the approaching cold front will lift into PA from the south later this morning, spreading rain and IFR conditions over most of Central PA. However, latest model soundings indicate a drier westerly flow will bring improving flying conditions across the NW Mtns, with a return to MVFR likely at KBFD by around 15Z. The first wave of low pressure should lift into New England late today, with a drier/colder northwest flow in its wake potentially bringing modest improvement in cigs. However, a second area of low pressure lifting up the east coast is likely to result in lingering rain changing to snow tonight across the eastern half of the state.
Thus, it is worth preparing for a period of snow with IFR vsbys between 06Z-12Z, mainly from KIPT south through KMDT and KLNS.
Outlook...
Mon...Gusty NW winds. AM snow likely W Mtns and Eastern PA.
Tue-Thu...No sig wx expected.
HYDROLOGY
With generally dry soil conditions and near to below average streamflows over east-central Pennsylvania, 1-2" rainfall will be largely beneficial in nature. However, with rainfall forecast to exceed 2 inches in some areas, there may be isolated flooding given cold season hydrologic conditions. The threat of flash flooding remains low given modest rainfall rates less than 1 inch per hour owing to lack of instability. Minor urban, poor drainage, and small stream flooding remain a possibility and would be the most likely scenario.
Forecast rainfall between 1 and 2 inches will likely cause within-bank rises of a few to several feet on rivers and streams across east central Pennsylvania. Response time will be quicker on small streams (Sunday night-Monday) and longer on larger main stem points (Tuesday - Wednesday). A few small streams may approach/exceed action or caution levels, such as Swatara Creek at Harper Tavern. A Flood Watch remains in effect, but no river flooding is forecast at this time.
CLIMATE
It has been 318 days since the last measurable snowfall (>=0.1") at Harrisburg. This ranks as the 3rd longest run on record.
1. 330 days ending 12/13/2020 2. 328 days ending 01/21/2007 3. 318 days ending 12/09/2023
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Monday afternoon for PAZ042-051>053-057>059-065-066.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 250 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
A relatively mild and tranquil start to the weekend will precede a strong frontal system that will bring a soaking rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, accumulating/elevation dependent snow and 30-40 mph wind gusts Sunday into Monday. Seasonably colder air and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie will linger through Monday night; otherwise the weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday will feature seasonal temperatures and high confidence in an extended period of dry weather/no precip.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
High clouds continue to stream in from west to east this evening. Partial clearing, combined with increasing dewpoints in southerly flow, has led to development of some mist/fog across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Showers are just beginning to cross the PA/OH border as of 9PM.
A very mild night is in store for early December with considerable clouds and precip probs ramping up from west to east after midnight through early Sunday morning. There will be a weak instability axis accompanying a strong 40-50kt LLJ and 1" pwat plume across the CWA overnight which could result in some rumbles of thunder and enhanced rain rates. Have included the mention of thunder in far northwest PA, but any such activity would be few and far between. Low clouds and fog/drizzle/mist may redevelop early tonight across the interior central and eastern valleys, but will eventually be scoured out by an increasing southerly gradient flow.
An anomalous temperature trend is expected overnight as temperatures stay approximately constant in northwest PA and rise overnight across the central and eastern zones.
Temperatures are in the upper 30s to low 40s this evening in southeast PA and will rise 15 to 20 degrees by daybreak Sunday.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
*Flood watch in effect for a portion of east-central PA from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
There is good agreement in the aforementioned cold front moving across CPA on Sunday as the associated longwave mid/upper trough becomes negatively tilted and waves of low pressure ripple north along the boundary. Whereas previous guidance indicated this would be an anafrontal system with precipitation lagging behind the front, this system is taking on characteristics more typical of a coastal low. At the upper levels, a coupled jet structure will pair the left exit region and right entrance region of two jet streaks leading to efficient diffluence aloft. As a result, the coastal low should deepen considerable as it races northward into New England. As it deepens, cold air will infiltrate from west to east and change rain to snow across the forecast area Sunday night into early Monday morning.
Storm track has stayed fairly consistent for the last couple of runs, favoring QPF of just over 2" across eastern PA and lesser amounts farther west. Rainfall totals will we slightly lower than QPF as a result of an anticipated changeover to snow. Isolated minor (urban/poor drainage and river) flooding is possible along and east of the mainstem Susquehanna Valley where the Flood watch remains in effect (see hydro section for more info). As model trends continue to favor colder temperatures (more snow)
and an eastward track, the risk of flooding continues to decrease.
Colder air will pour into the area behind the front Sunday night behind increasingly gusty NW flow. This will result in a rain to snow transition from west to east across the entire CWA between 00-12Z Monday. There remains some uncertainty with how the interplay between moisture and colder air materializes. Recent high-resolution guidance favors little to no snow west of the I-99 corridor and more widespread accumulation to the east.
Elevation will be a significant delineating factor for snow accums. Official expected forecast shows at least few inches (borderline advisory) the from the Laurel Highlands into the Endless mtns/western Poconos. The most consistent signal for advisory level snow has been over Sullivan County, where 4"+ appear increasingly likely. It's possible some of the highest terrain over east- central PA picks up a couple inches with a large spread or gradient between ridgetop and valley. Snowfall amounts have trended lower over the NW mtns inkind with weaker ensemble QPF signal for the synoptic snow, while ramping up across the eastern part of the area.
Peak wind gusts late Sunday night into Monday (especially later Monday morning and Monday afternoon as the colder air dramatically deepens and taps stronger winds aloft) are forecast in the 35 to 40 mph range (just under Wind Advisory Criteria).
As winds become northwesterly behind the exiting system, lake effect snow showers are likely on Monday before fading into Monday night. High-resolution guidance indicates the potential for lake effect streams to reach as far southeast as the I-80/I-99 corridor. Sufficient instability could also lead to an increase risk of snow squalls. The Snow Squall Parameter lights up northwest and Central PA downwind of Lake Erie during the day on Monday. Additional accumulation of a dusting to an inch or two is possible with lake effect snow during the day on Monday.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHSN diminish at the beginning of the long term as winds back to the SW and dry air establishes itself. High pressure will then provide an extended stretch of dry weather through the end of the work week. There does look to be one shot of reinforcement to the cold air arriving Tues PM which could make some SHSN in the NW. So, while temps will moderate a few degs on Tuesday to maxes of 35-45F, we'll drop back 3-5F on Wed. Then, temps crawl back up into the 40s for Fri. The next significant chance for precip will arrive for the second half of next weekend when many models begin to generate a coastal low in/near the Carolinas. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the precipitation type and track of the low, but the system bears watching over the next week or so.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The main focus during the predawn hours this morning will be on lingering low clouds/fog over the Susq Valley and developing low cigs over the N Mtns, as an increasingly moist southerly flow works into the state ahead of an approaching cold front.
Current observations, combined with light wind and breaks in the clouds argue for continued IFR vsbys at KMDT early this morning. Over the NW Mtns, upstream observations and the latest RAP suggest IFR/LIFR cigs will become likely at KBFD between 08Z-09Z. Also of concern this morning will be the likelihood of widespread LLWS associated with the passage of a core of strong southwesterly winds aloft.
A wave of low pressure on the approaching cold front will lift into PA from the south later this morning, spreading rain and IFR conditions over most of Central PA. However, latest model soundings indicate a drier westerly flow will bring improving flying conditions across the NW Mtns, with a return to MVFR likely at KBFD by around 15Z. The first wave of low pressure should lift into New England late today, with a drier/colder northwest flow in its wake potentially bringing modest improvement in cigs. However, a second area of low pressure lifting up the east coast is likely to result in lingering rain changing to snow tonight across the eastern half of the state.
Thus, it is worth preparing for a period of snow with IFR vsbys between 06Z-12Z, mainly from KIPT south through KMDT and KLNS.
Outlook...
Mon...Gusty NW winds. AM snow likely W Mtns and Eastern PA.
Tue-Thu...No sig wx expected.
HYDROLOGY
With generally dry soil conditions and near to below average streamflows over east-central Pennsylvania, 1-2" rainfall will be largely beneficial in nature. However, with rainfall forecast to exceed 2 inches in some areas, there may be isolated flooding given cold season hydrologic conditions. The threat of flash flooding remains low given modest rainfall rates less than 1 inch per hour owing to lack of instability. Minor urban, poor drainage, and small stream flooding remain a possibility and would be the most likely scenario.
Forecast rainfall between 1 and 2 inches will likely cause within-bank rises of a few to several feet on rivers and streams across east central Pennsylvania. Response time will be quicker on small streams (Sunday night-Monday) and longer on larger main stem points (Tuesday - Wednesday). A few small streams may approach/exceed action or caution levels, such as Swatara Creek at Harper Tavern. A Flood Watch remains in effect, but no river flooding is forecast at this time.
CLIMATE
It has been 318 days since the last measurable snowfall (>=0.1") at Harrisburg. This ranks as the 3rd longest run on record.
1. 330 days ending 12/13/2020 2. 328 days ending 01/21/2007 3. 318 days ending 12/09/2023
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Monday afternoon for PAZ042-051>053-057>059-065-066.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSEG PENN VALLEY,PA | 8 sm | 39 min | calm | 1/2 sm | Partly Cloudy | Mist | 36°F | 34°F | 93% | 29.92 |
| KZER SCHUYLKILL COUNTY/JOE ZERBEY,PA | 20 sm | 21 min | SE 08 | 5 sm | Overcast | Mist | 45°F | 45°F | 100% | 29.93 |
| KMUI MUIR AAF (FORT INDIANTOWN GAP),PA | 23 sm | 61 min | NE 03 | 10 sm | -- | 45°F | 41°F | 87% | 29.93 |
Wind History from SEG
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Port Deposit
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:04 AM EST 0.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:45 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 07:47 AM EST 1.45 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:48 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 02:56 PM EST -0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:40 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 08:57 PM EST 2.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:04 AM EST 0.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:45 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 07:47 AM EST 1.45 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:48 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 02:56 PM EST -0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:40 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 08:57 PM EST 2.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.5 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.3 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.2 |
Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:24 AM EST 0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:45 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 07:51 AM EST 1.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:36 PM EST 0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:48 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:40 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 07:44 PM EST 2.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:24 AM EST 0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:45 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 07:51 AM EST 1.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:36 PM EST 0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:48 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:40 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 07:44 PM EST 2.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.3 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.3 |
State College, PA,
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