Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:51AM||Sunset 8:44PM||Friday August 14, 2020 9:46 AM CDT (14:46 UTC)||Moonrise 1:06AM||Moonset 4:30PM||Illumination 19%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cozad, NEHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Hastings, NE  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KGID 141156 AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 656 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
. Short Term and Aviation Update .
UPDATE. Issued at 656 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
Sure enough, since the main discussion below came out less than 2 hours ago, at least patchy fog (maybe even localized dense?) has shown up mainly in/near our southern CWA in both automated surface obs and also night fog satellite imagery. There is also likely pockets of low stratus developing as well. As a result, went ahead and inserted basic/generic "patchy fog" into the official forecast for the next few hours mainly for counties along/south of the state line. Not to say that at least a little fog won't form farther north as well, but unless things really take an unexpected turn for the worse in the next 1-2 hours and/or last longer than expected, don't foresee fog being a truly major issue for the morning and thus will forego a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID).
SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 515 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
Gonna focus only on these first 24 hours in this section, as they just happen to be main time frame of concern for POSSIBLE severe storms in the entire 7-day forecast (specifically this afternoon- evening). Please note considerable uncertainty remains regarding whether we see a few storms or perhaps several. Otherwise, today is also anticipated to be the overall-hottest day of the entire 7-day forecast (at least by a narrow margin), but with heat index values expected to remain near-to- below 100 degrees all areas, there is fortunately no concern for Advisory- level heat.
Taking a look at the current/recent weather scene as of 4 AM: As anticipated by previous forecast, this has been a dry night, as isolated convection that developed well to our west/northwest last evening fizzled before even coming that close to getting into out CWA (coverage area). In fact, it's also been a very clear and fog- free night (at least thus far), as any possible concerns for low cloud development has yet to materialize. While there are still a few hours to go before sunrise, latest indications suggest that any potential for more widespread low clouds/fog through then should mainly focus at least slightly southwest of our domain. In the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short-term model data confirms generally west-northwest flow aloft, with by far the main feature of interest being a shortwave trough currently tracking toward the western Dakotas from MT. At the surface, our entire area remains in the warm/moist sector ahead of an approaching cold front still well to the north over SD. As a result, it's a humid morning with dewpoints well into the mid 60s to around 70, and actual low temps on track to bottom out in the mid-upper 60s most areas.
Now looking ahead forecast-wise through today-tonight .
Early this morning (through shortly after sunrise): As touched on above, will need to keep an eye on especially southwest zones for possible low cloud and/or fog development, but unless things really trend worse in the visibility department quickly, currently have no plans to add a formal mention of fog to this morning's forecast (will keep an eye on things).
Today (Generally 7 AM-7 PM): Through at least early afternoon, confidence in the going dry forecast remains rather high, and the main issue for this morning will be monitoring for possible development of at least patchy low clouds and/or fairly light fog (again would seem most favored south-southwest if it occurs much at all). Otherwise, temps should climb fairly rapidly under mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, with continued fairly light but steady southerly winds ahead of the approaching front. By early afternoon, this front is slated to just be into our far northern/west-central zones, then roughly bisecting the CWA from southwest-to-northeast by mid-late afternoon. The frontal passage will be marked by a shift to modestly-breezy north winds of 10-20 MPH/gusts to around 25 MPH. Given that the front should have very little bearing on high temperature potential before it arrives, have maintained similar highs to previous forecast, with the vast majority of the CWA aimed into the 88-92 range. Finally, the million dollar question for the afternoon-evening is just how much (if hardly any?) thunderstorm development occurs along/just behind the advancing front. As is so common in these setups, model QPF/simulated reflectivity fields differ considerably, from the more aggressive GFS/RAP and to some degree NAMNest to the more sparse/conservative NAM12 and (at least for now HRRR). As for factors working against widespread storms locally: forcing is a bit weaker over our area, with the main shortwave tracking across the Dakotas toward MN. There will also (at least initially) be some fairly healthy capping to overcome, with mid level (700 millibar) temps above the frontal zone well into the 12-14C range much of the time. That being said, IF even a few storms can get established, severe weather is a legit possibility as mixed layer CAPE to around 3000 J/kg teamed with around 30-35 knots of deep-layer shear is nothing to sneeze at for mid-August, and would be supportive of at least brief/transient supercell structures capable of producing large hail to at least ping pong ball size/damaging winds. Although not necessarily zero, am not very concerned about tornado potential given weak low level shear and a tendency for the steadily- advancing front to at least slightly undercut developing updrafts. Suppose a few places could also pick up a quick inch or so of rain, but amounts this high should be fairly spotty and mainly favoring our southeastern counties. Speaking of which, while cannot over-emphasize the uncertainty in storm coverage (hence why PoPs were kept safely under "likely" percentages all areas), also cannot argue with SPC covering the vast majority of the CWA with at least a Marginal risk of severe, as if the front slows any and/or storms fire earlier, even our northwestern zones could briefly see a severe threat. However, the primary area of concern should pretty clearly be roughly the southeast half of the CWA (including KS zones).
This evening tonight (generally 7 PM-sunrise Saturday): At roughly 00z/7PM, the aforementioned front should be at least 2/3 of the way through the CWA, with most areas behind it already in the clear from any possible severe (including Tri Cities). However, roughly the southeast 1/3 of the CWA could see a threat for at least a few severe storms continue right on through around 10-11 PM, before various factors such as: the onset of diurnal cooling, the arrival of more stable post-frontal air and decreasing forcing aloft as the parent wave moves farther off into MN and toward the Great Lakes . should in theory . largely put an end to any storms in our southern CWA for the night, especially of the severe variety. That being said, with at least a decent elevated instability axis hanging around over/near our KS zones through the late night, have maintained some small PoPs there post-midnight. Otherwise, the main story for most of the area overnight will be the arrival of the noticeably cooler/drier airmass, with dewpoints falling into the mid 50s to around 60 range as the night wears on (some 10+ degrees drier than this morning). Following suite (and assuming skies largely clear as expected in the light post-frontal north wind regime), actual low temps are slated to bottom out mid-upper 50s most Neb zones, to mainly low-mid 60s KS zones (a solid 10-15 degrees cooler than this morning most areas).
LONG TERM. (Saturday daytime through Thursday) Issued at 536 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
General overview of this 6-day period: Given that the vast majority of effort tonight was focused on the Short Term periods, will be keeping this Long Term section shorter than usual, and concentrate on the big picture messages.
Precipitation/thunderstorm potential: Honestly, if you don't happen to get any rain this afternoon- evening, the odds of picking up anything meaningful (or hardly anything at all) through these long term periods are fairly small. While this might be okay for some of our notably-wetter areas this summer (for example Thayer County), it's not great news for MUCH drier counties such as Kearney/Buffalo/Adams etc. (among others). More specifically, we have some very "iffy"/low confidence rain/storm chances mainly in our southern/southwestern zones through the weekend, but to be honest these low PoPs are mainly based on our default multi-model blend, and a quick look at the 06Z NAM/NAMnest suggests a very high likelihood that anything but perhaps the far southwest edges of the CWA are most likely dry through the weekend. Any storms that might occur this weekend are not expected to be severe. In fact, this mostly-dry pattern looks to continue right on into next week and through the rest of the 7-day forecast, as the large- scale pattern in the mid levels transitions to fairly pronounced northerly flow over the Central Plains (in the interface between a large/expansive western CONUS ridge and a broad eastern CONUS trough). Officially, the only chance of rain/storms in our forecast from Mon-Thurs comes Tues night, but this is mainly supported by GFS and much less-so the latest ECMWF.
Temperatures: This 6-day stretch would be best described as seasonably-warm (but not overly-hot), with most days days nights averaging within a few degrees either side of mid-late August normals. This means plenty of days with highs mainly mid-upper 80s and night with lows mainly a few degrees either side of 60. It is worth noting that dewpoints/humidity levels should be relatively comfortable most days, with dewpoints on most afternoons only expected to peak in the 50s to mid 60s (as opposed to more oppressive upper 60s to 70s).
AVIATION. (For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Saturday) Issued at 656 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
General overview: High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and rain/thunderstorm- free weather through the majority of the period. However, there are definitely a few caveats and possible aviation impacts, including: 1) Possibility of at least brief/fleeting MVFR (maybe even IFR?) ceiling mainly between now and 17Z (also perhaps brief MVFR visibility) . 2) At least a brief window of opportunity for thunderstorms (possibly even severe), mainly during the 20-00Z time frame . 3) A wind shift (non-thunderstorm) associated with a passing cold front this afternoon that will swing wind direction around to northerly through latter portions of the period. More on individual weather elements follow.
Ceiling trends/uncertainty: While confidence is high in VFR through the vast majority of the period, there is at least a brief window of opportunity for an MVFR stratus ceiling to develop yet this morning, with IFR not totally out of the question. Do not have enough confidence in sub- VFR conditions to carry in TAFS, but will continue "hinting" at it with a FEW/SCT low cloud group and 6SM BR visibility for the next few hours.
Thunderstorm potential: Latest model solutions vary, from squarely bringing thunderstorms directly into KGRI and/or KEAR during the afternoon, to completely keeping this activity at least slightly off to the east-through- south. Given the low-confidence in direct storm impacts, will simply maintain a generic "vicinity" (VCTS) for the most favored 20-00Z time frame at this time. However, IF storms do end up affecting the TAF sites, strong to severe wind gusts and possibly large hail cannot be ruled out for a short time, so something to watch for.
Winds (non-thunderstorm): Aside from any possible storm outflow influences, confidence is fairly high in wind trends. Sustained speeds through most of the period will prevail at-or-below 12KT, with direction this morning starting out southerly, then briefly going more southwesterly mid- day ahead of the approaching cold front, then finally northerly behind the front and/or composite storm outflow boundary mid-late afternoon.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NE . NONE. KS . NONE.
UPDATE . Pfannkuch SHORT TERM . Pfannkuch LONG TERM . Pfannkuch AVIATION . Pfannkuch
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|Lexington, Jim Kelly Field Airport, NE||12 mi||52 min||S 8||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||73°F||69°F||88%||1014.6 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KLXN
Wind History from LXN (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SW|
|2 days ago||S||S||S||S|
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Wind Forecast for Hastings, NE (10,2,3,4)(on/off)  Help
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