Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 12:53 AM   Moonset 9:34 AM

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FXUS63 KGID 290604 AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 104 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Aviation Update

KEY MESSAGES

- A Frost Advisory is in effect for much of the area tonight into Monday morning. Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation.

- Storms will be possible (up to around a 60% chance) on Tuesday mainly across the eastern half of the forecast area. Some of these storms may be strong to severe.

- High temperatures (after today) will mostly be in the 60s and 70s with some 50s and 80s. Low temperatures will be in the 30s to 50s.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper low/trough is centered over Nebraska with showers and thunderstorms wrapping around this feature. The upper low will move over South Dakota by this evening with the precipitation moving northward as well. Winds are primarily out of the west to northwest to north with some gusts. High temperatures today will range from the upper 40s near and northwest of Lexington and Ord to the mid 60s near and southeast of Beloit and Hebron. Low temperatures tonight are expected to cool into the mid to upper 30s for most of south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas as surface high pressure settles in across the area. This coupled with light winds and mostly clear skies will likely create patchy frost. The hindering factor on frost development may be clouds that linger longer than expected. Expecting at least brief frost to occur across much of the area tonight so a Frost Advisory has been issued for areas in Nebraska mainly along and west of Highway 281 and Phillips and Smith Counties in north central Kansas.

Monday through Wednesday...

The upper low/trough will continue to move northeastward on Monday.
Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will transition from the northwest to the southwest with mostly sunny skies. High temperatures on Monday will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Low temperatures Monday night are expected to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s with south to southeast winds and increasing clouds. An upper low centered over Montana will begin to expand over Nebraska and Kansas on Tuesday. This will create increased lift over the area which may lead to areas of showers and drizzle during the morning on Tuesday. A cold front will begin to push into the area from the northwest on Tuesday which may lead to showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Some of these storms may become strong to severe. Temperatures on Tuesday will be dependent on the timing of the front but are expected to reach the low 70s to mid 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances (up to around 40%) will linger across the area Tuesday night. Low temperatures Tuesday night are expected to range from the low 40s to mid 50s. Showers and thunderstorms will still be possible (up to around a 65% chance) during the day on Wednesday as the previously mentioned upper trough moves closer to the area. Temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler than the previous day with highs in the mid 60s to low 80s.

Wednesday night through next Sunday...

An upper trough to the west will move over and deepen over the Rocky Mountains Wednesday night. The upper trough will begin moving over Nebraska and Kansas and will increase upper lift. A cold front associated with the upper trough will begin moving into the area.
This will result in increasing chances (up to around an 80% chance)
of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night. Low temperatures will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Gusty northerly winds will be across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Thursday with lingering precipitation (up to around a 45% chance). Temperatures on Thursday will be cooler with highs ranging from the upper 50s to low 70s. Rain chances (up to around 25%)
continue Thursday night with lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s. The upper trough will pass over the region on Friday with high temperatures mostly in the 60s. High temperatures are expected to be in the 60s and 70s on Saturday and in the 70s next Sunday with lows generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Precipitation chances next weekend will generally be 15 to 25 percent.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 104 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

- General overview for KGRI/KEAR: In what's recently been (and will soon again be) a fairly active weather pattern, these next 24-36 features overall-benign aviation weather. There is high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and dry/thunderstorm-free conditions, with any clouds mainly consisting of limited "fair weather" cumulus mainly this afternoon (although KGRI could possibly get brushed by a brief high-end MVFR/low-end VFR deck right away during these first few hours).

Even winds will be minimal by late-April standards, with sustained speeds mainly at-or-below 10KT throughout (perhaps some gusts to around 15KT mainly this afternoon). Direction- wise, a mainly westerly to west-southwesterly component will prevail most of the period, before a switch to light south- southeasterlies occurs Monday evening.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039-040-046- 047-060>062-072>075-082>085.
KS...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005-006.

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