Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 7:10AM||Sunset 6:39PM||Thursday March 4, 2021 10:45 PM CST (04:45 UTC)||Moonrise 12:01AM||Moonset 10:22AM||Illumination 60%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cozad, NEHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Hastings, NE  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KGID 042353 AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 553 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021
DISCUSSION. (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 355 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021
Chance for rain tonight, fog tmrw morning, then temperatures in the extended are the main forecast concerns.
Potent upper low can be seen on satellite imagery spinning over the Four Corners region. A broad pcpn shield is noted on regional radar mosaic N and E of this upper low, with even some lightning strikes as close as SW KS. Closer to home, clds have gradually been on the incr from the SW (a bit slower than expected), with surprisingly warm and dry conditions given breezy E/SE sfc winds. This has resulted in near-critical fire weather conditions for roughly S half of the CWA. This is where combination of wind and temps are highest, and RH is lowest.
Short term models are in good agreement tonight in keeping most, if not all, rain shwrs S of Hwy 36 in north central KS. There's a tight gradient in model QPF output, ranging from 0.25-0.50" from HYS/RSL into far S Rooks Co, to almost nothing towards Hwy 36. Have definite PoPs far S/SW quickly tapering off to next to nothing along state line. Inspected forecast soundings in these areas and still not seeing much for elevated CAPE. This is confirmed on 12Z HREF, so have left out any mention of thunder. The next forecast concern revolves around potential for low stratus and/or fog late tonight and into Fri AM. Some model guidance, such as NAM/GFS and MOS, are pretty aggressive in this development occurring by dawn and then only slowly improving thru Fri AM. However, latest RAP/HRRR runs are much less aggressive, so this leads to considerable uncertainly, not only in sky/vsby forecast, but also any potential ramifications to Fri high temp potential. Erly, upslope flow and possibility of some N areas remaining on fringes of thick mid/upper clds argues for the potential, but this E flow has been rather dry today, with virtually no moisture advection thus far. As a result, T-Td spreads are rather high around 30-35 degrees. This does not bode well for fog development. Have essentially gone in the middle of the road, though will admit what is in the grids may actually be most unlikely scenario, as fog will either develop or it won't. Will let eve shift adjust as necessary.
The main story for middle portion of this forecast is well above normal temps. We've been overachieving on temps as of late, so regional coordination was to raise temps a few degrees each day. May still not be warm enough on some days. Sat will be brzy areawide then a trough will bring weakening winds for W half on Sun. Winds will be lighter for Mon before picking back up on Tue. High temps will rise well into the 60s for Sat to Mon, then peak on Tue in the 70s, and maybe even low 80s.
We'll transition to cooler, and potentially more active, weather towards the middle of next week as an upper trough shifts E from the Rockies to the Plains. There's still a considerable amount of uncertainty with details (which is not uncommon for 6-7 days out) regarding specific timing and track, both of which will be key to determining pcpn chcs and overall sensible weather. At the very least, it looks more likely than not we'll see an end to our well above normal temperature streak and fall back to at least near normal temps. GEFS is is more aggressive with below normal temps by next weekend.
AVIATION. (For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday) Issued at 540 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021
There is a good deal of uncertainty with this TAF forecast and we may end up with IFR or LIFR conditions worse than expected late tonight into Friday morning. Some forecast models keep the low clouds away from us (RAP), while others (NAM/GFS) bring the low clouds in after midnight with LIFR ceilings at times around dawn. Will continue to go with a more optimistic TAF calling for only scattered low clouds, but there is at least some possibility that we could be socked in late tonight. If any low clouds do form, they should begin to scatter out by late morning or early afternoon. In addition to the possibility of low ceilings will be the possibility of fog during the same time frame.
FIRE WEATHER. Issued at 355 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021
Temps have overachieved today, and despite E winds, Tds have remained quite low. This combined with breezy E/SE winds has resulted in near critical fire wx conditions, though expect improving conditions rather quickly due to incr clds.
The next day to watch looks to be Saturday over far W portions of CWA. Current forecast calls for min RH 20 to 25 percent from Furnas to Valley Co, with S winds 15-20 mph, and gusts 25-30mph. Given its still a couple days away and its only a small portion of the area, have left out of HWO, for now. These things usually trend worse more than better, though. We'll have to watch Sun to Tue as well as these days will be warm, but none of these look to be "slam dunk" fire wx concerns at this time.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NE . NONE. KS . NONE.
DISCUSSION . Thies AVIATION . Wesely FIRE WEATHER . Thies
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|Lexington, Jim Kelly Field Airport, NE||12 mi||51 min||ENE 7||10.00 mi||Fair||47°F||35°F||63%||1020 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KLXN
Wind History from LXN (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||S||S||S||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW|
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