Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 1:42 AM   Moonset 10:46 AM

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FXUS63 KLBF 301729 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across western Nebraska into the panhandle this afternoon though greenup is well underway.

- There is potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon for portions of Nebraska mainly along and east of Highway 281.

- There is potential for strong to severe thunderstorms again Wednesday evening into early Wednesday night mainly from Grant through North Platte to Broken Bow and southward.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A vigorous short wave will drive a surface low across the High Plains and push a cold front through Nebraska today. The front has good mid level deformation and FGEN forcing but deep moisture is lacking. Anticipate there may be a few sprinkles from some mid level moisture early this morning with the better chances for showers/thunderstorms more closely associated with the frontal passage and mostly confined to along/north of Hwy 2 closer to the better moisture. The best potential for string to severe thunderstorms will accompany a plume of moisture surging up from the Gulf this afternoon, but this will be mainly across eastern Nebraska later this afternoon as the front is exiting the region. There may be a window for convective initiation to occur near Hwy 281 with a marginal severe threat but the main threat area is expected to reside off to our east.

Winds behind the front will veer to the northwest and become quite gusty with probabilistic guidance showing up to an 80 percent chance for gusts in excess of 35 mph west of Hwy 83 and particularly in a corridor down the North Platte river valley from Oshkosh to North Platte. The lack of moisture combined with some downsloping will generate very dry conditions with a much better than even chance for minimum relative humidity values below 20 percent from the southern panhandle into southwest Nebraska this afternoon. This will create elevated to near critical fire weather conditions for any patchy/areas of lingering old growth cured fuels, though green up and our recent cool/damp conditions will help mitigate fire concerns.

A progressive upper level pattern with a closed low/trof moving into the northern Rockies will keep our weather active through midweek.
So after a brief break of dry conditions Tuesday evening into early Tuesday night, isentropic lift associated with a surface low developing over eastern Colorado will start to push some showers northward into Nebraska toward daybreak Wednesday morning, and by Wednesday afternoon showers and some thunder will have overspread the majority of the area. As the low starts to eject eastward late Wednesday into Wednesday night it will combine with a plume of deep moisture moving up from the south and significant mid level forcing to bring thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to portions of southwest and central Nebraska, mainly from Imperial through North Platte to O'Neill.
Will be monitoring locations along and east of Hwy 183 closely for potential flooding from excessive rainfall on soils that remain wet from recent heavy rainfall from Hwy 183 eastward.
Additionally, modest elevated instability with steep mid/upper level lapse rates will be able to generate some robust storms with a marginal severe threat primarily for hail early Wednesday night mainly from Imperial through North PLatte to Broken Bow and southward. Will be monitoring the potential for severe weather and hydro concerns closely over the next several data cycles for any chances that may impact threat levels across central and western Nebraska. Showers and thunderstorms will be pushing off to the east later Wednesday night.

Highs today will range from only around 60 degrees across northwest Nebraska where the cold front will pass earlier in the day, to the middle 70s across south central Nebraska where the frontal passage will be later. Post frontal highs tomorrow will be cooler with readings topping out generally in the 60s. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 435 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement keeping unsettled weather across central and western Nebraska through the weekend with the upper trof over the northern Rockies slowly lifts northeastward into Canada and is replaced by another strong closed low moving into the PacNW. There may be an opportunity for periods Thursday into Friday to be more dry than not, but potential for showers and thunderstorms increases late Friday into Friday night. Then perhaps a brief break heading into the weekend, followed increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms Sunday and into the first part of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska through the period. Winds have strengthened out of the northwest behind a cold frontal passage with widespread gusts of 25 to 35 knots. These gusty winds will continue through this evening, before becoming light and variable overnight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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