Key Points

- Cooling trend this weekend with gradual warming trend by the middle of next week.
- Smoke and haze from California fires will effect the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills.

Discussion
Temperatures are around 5-15 degrees cooler than this time 24 hours ago around the area, with only Redding AP reporting a temperature 5 degrees warmer. Onshore flow creating gusty conditions in the Delta and Sacramento areas, along with some stratus intrusion from the marine layer making its way just south of Travis AFB. A weak and dry upper level low is projected to continue to move through the area this weekend which will help keep our temperatures cooler by some 10 degrees across the region. As the low continues to move through the area, the winds should also start to become slightly breezy as opposed to the gusty winds we have been experiencing the past few days.

An increase in humidity values and weakening winds will lower the fire weather conditions this weekend, although with dry fuels it will still be important to practice fire safety during this time.
As we move into next week and the start of the work week, we will temperatures starting to rise into the mid 80s to low 90s. A ridge of high pressure is projected to develop in the Southern Plains which will raise our heights and slightly increase temperatures.
The Delta Breeze will continue to promote cooler temperatures in influenced areas and help keep us relatively close to climatological normal high temperatures.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...

On Wednesday, the return of of triple-digit high temperatures will once again become a possibility for the region. The National Blend of Models advertises a 10-40% chance of reaching/exceeding 100 for portions of the northern Sacramento Valley, mainly in the Redding/Red Bluff areas on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday will see much of the same, with widespread mid to upper 90s for the Central/Southern Sacramento Valleys and Northern San Joaquin Valley. Ensembles show a ridge of high pressure moving into the Four Corners region as we enter the end of next week. Clusters are generally in good agreement of this pattern taking shape once again, so we can at least anticipate a return to near normal high temperatures and monsoonal moisture making a push on the back side of the ridge. For now, it is too early to know if any rain showers/storms may develop along the Sierra Crest, so we will continue to monitor trends and update the forecast accordingly.

AVIATION

VFR conditions next 24 hrs except areas MVFR/IFR in haze/smoke vicinity of wildfires. Areas of south to west surface wind gusts 15-30 kts, strongest vicinity west Delta.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.