Thursday, January21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
East Patchogue, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:57PM Thursday January 21, 2021 10:15 PM EST (03:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:43PMMoonset 1:40AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 628 Pm Est Thu Jan 21 2021
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 628 Pm Est Thu Jan 21 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak surface low pressure to our north will send several weak cold fronts across the waters through Friday night. High pressure builds in from the west Saturday and Saturday night, and settles over the region Sunday. The high weakens Monday as low pressure approaches. The low passes south of the area Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Patchogue, NY
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location: 40.77, -72.99     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 220010 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 710 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Weak surface low pressure to the north sends several weak cold fronts through the area by Friday night. High pressure builds in from the west Saturday and Saturday night, and settles over the region Sunday. The high weakens Monday as low pressure approaches. The low passes south of the area Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Winds have quickly decoupled and temperatures, especially in the normally colder locations, have fallen quickly, and have been adjusted several degrees lower for current conditions. Increasing cloud cover, and increasing winds toward 06z as another weak trough moves into the region will affect the temperatures. And temperatures will likely rise again in the colder locations as mixing occurs.

During the overnight period, the low pressure to the north of the region will send another weak cold front through the area. This may produce some clouds or some very light passing snow showers for northern portions of the CWA which should end by sunrise.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. More of the same for Friday with a mix of clouds and sun and the potential for some scattered flurries or sprinkles during the afternoon as the low pressure sends yet another weak cold front through the area. The additional mixing from daytime heating and the cold upper-levels thanks to the departing trough will allow for the development of a few convective showers of snow or rain, especially during the afternoon. High temperatures will be seasonable, generally in the low 40s.

Winds then shift more out of the NW by Friday night. The trough shifts eastward as strong high pressure starts to build into the area from the west. The pressure gradient tightens over the area allowing brisk winds with gusty conditions developing through Friday night and into early Saturday. Lows on Friday night will generally be in the 20s with some of the coldest spots dropping into the teens.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The northern stream will remain dominate and progressive through the weekend and into Monday. A ridge builds into the northeast and mid Atlantic coast by Sunday and then weakens as a northern stream trough moves into eastern Canada Sunday night and Monday.

A cold airmass will be in place for Saturday with a gusty northwest flow as temperatures are expected to be a few degrees below seasonal normals, with wind chills in the teens and lower 20s. Saturday night the gusty northwest flow gradually diminishes as the cold airmass remains and temperatures will be around 5 degrees below normal. Wind chill values will be mostly in the single digits.

Meanwhile a southern stream shortwave moves out of the southwest and quickly reaches the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday. There is some phasing of the northern and southern stream Tuesday into Tuesday night, however, the southern stream surface low will dominate as the surface low reaches the Ohio Valley by 00Z Tuesday. There remain some differences in the guidance with the timing and placement of another low developing off the mid Atlantic coast Monday night and tracking east into the Atlantic through Tuesday night. The trends remain to keep the low to the south of the area as arctic high pressure to the north noses down along the northeast coast. The ECMWF continues to be the furtherest north with the low, while the GFS and Canadian keep the precipitation shield across the southern portions of the forecast area. Will keep the probabilities at chance throughout the region for late Monday night through Tuesday. The airmass remains cold and precipitation is expected to be in the form of light snow.

Thereafter high pressure returns for later Tuesday into Thursday. And the is a chance another low moves south of the area late Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A weak cold front clears the area as it moves east early tonight. A second cold front moves across Friday.

VFR. WSW-w around 10 kt or less through tonight. Gusts return late Friday morning with W winds.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty . Timing of gusts returning on Friday may be off by 1 to 3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 0Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Friday Night. VFR. WNW 10-15g20kt. Saturday. VFR. NW gusts 25-30kt. Sunday. VFR. WNW 7-15g20kt. MONDAY. VFR. NW-N Light. TUESDAY. Chance of sub-vfr early in mixed precip or snow with NE gusts 20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. The SCA for the eastern Long Island Sound, and the Long Island bays was allowed to expire as winds have decoupled and fallen well below 25 kt.

Small craft conditions on the oceans will persist through at least Friday night with gusty winds over 25 kt becoming more persistent through the day Friday and continuing into the night. The SCA for the ocean was extended through Friday night.

Small craft conditions will be on going for Saturday across all the forecast waters, with a strong northwest flow. There will even be a chance of gales across the eastern ocean waters late Saturday afternoon into the early evening.

High pressure will build in slowly from the west Saturday and Saturday night, and wind gusts will be gradually diminishing below SCA levels Saturday night through Sunday, with ocean seas below SCA by late day Sunday. Sub advisory conditions are then expected across all the waters from late Sunday night through Tuesday night as high pressure gradually weakens with approaching low pressure to the south.

HYDROLOGY. Mainly dry conditions are expected through the upcoming weekend. No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through the middle of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.

SYNOPSIS . MW NEAR TERM . MET/MW SHORT TERM . MW LONG TERM . MET AVIATION . JE MARINE . MET/MW HYDROLOGY . MET/MW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 30 mi76 min Calm G 1 31°F 41°F1003.3 hPa (-0.3)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 36 mi76 min NE 5.1 G 6 31°F 38°F1004.3 hPa (-0.4)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 37 mi56 min W 7.8 G 9.7 47°F1003.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 40 mi91 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 37°F 32°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 41 mi76 min S 4.1 G 5.1 37°F 1004.2 hPa (+0.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi56 min SW 5.8 G 9.7 45°F1003.3 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY6 mi20 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds25°F20°F81%1003.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY8 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair26°F20°F78%1004.3 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY20 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair19°F15°F84%1004.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY22 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair29°F21°F72%1003.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10W9NW8NW6W4SW4S4SW4CalmE3SW7SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Long Island, New York
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Patchogue
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:39 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:05 AM EST     0.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:03 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:23 PM EST     0.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Mastic Beach, Moriches Bay, Long Island, New York
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Mastic Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:39 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:10 AM EST     0.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:55 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:28 PM EST     0.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:57 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.