Monday, September20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
East Patchogue, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 6:53PM Monday September 20, 2021 3:44 PM EDT (19:44 UTC) Moonrise 7:10PMMoonset 5:58AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 945 Am Edt Mon Sep 20 2021
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Thu night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 945 Am Edt Mon Sep 20 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will settle off the new england coast today then gradually give way to a slow moving cold front during the middle of the week, which passes through the area late Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Patchogue, NY
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location: 40.77, -72.99     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 201735 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 135 PM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will settle off the New England coast today then gradually give way to a slow moving cold front during the middle of the week, which passes through the area late Thursday into Friday. High pressure may briefly return Saturday ahead of another cold front for Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Forecast is on track. Minor adjustments were made to capture latest obs and trends. Fair weather cu can be seen on satellite across much of the area due to low level moisture increasing from an onshore flow. Mostly sunny to sunny skies will remain the rest of today.

Upper level ridging builds across the region today, with the ridge axis moving over the Northeast this afternoon while the surface high pushes off the New England coast and settles over the Gulf of Maine. An onshore flow will set up and despite the ridging, 850 hPa temperatures will generally be in the 10-12 C range, which translates to highs in the lower to middle 70s across the forecast area, which is near normal for this time of year.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The main concern for tonight will be if any stratus or fog develops. Given onshore flow, fog and/or stratus seems like a possibility, but ensembles show the highest probabilities north and west of New York City, possibly more favorable where locations have a better chance of decoupling. Winds along the coast may remain somewhat elevated, and thinking fog is less likely here. Given southerly flow and more in the way of clouds, lows will be a few degrees warmer tonight than previous nights, ranging from the lower 50s inland, to the middle 60s in the in the metro area.

Tuesday will remain dry and continued near normal temperatures as the high remains off the New England coast. An upper level trough and surface cold front slowly approaches from the west Tuesday night. There will be a slight chance for showers Tuesday night.

Chances continue to increase from west to east on Wednesday as the front continues its approach. However, much of the precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday looks to be light, with some light precipitation rounding the base of the high, coming in from the Atlantic Ocean, well ahead of the front. Humidity levels will increase Tuesday into Wednesday, with dew points rising into the upper 60s by Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. An extremely challenging forecast is in play due to a complex upper flow pattern, featuring PAC jet energy diving into the base of an an amplifying longwave trough over the Mississippi Valley during the mid week period. The ECMWF and Canadian continue to be the slower members of the operational global model suite and cut off an upper low in the TN Valley Wed night, while on the GFS this happens much farther to the north and east across the Great Lakes. Additionally, the GFS has been bouncing around the last 48h. It went from a less progressive solution 24h ago, to now a progressive trend over the last 3 cycles. So the question is where does the northern stream portion of the trough phase with the PAC jet energy and form the cutoff. In addition, a highly anomalous downstream upper ridge across the western Atlantic will be a key ingredient to the progression of the system. The aforementioned jet energy has also come onshore, so this should hopefully lead to some more run to run consistency in the coming 24h.

Staying more in line with a consensus model approach, leaning toward the slower ECMWF and Canadian, would support a slower frontal passage Friday into Friday night with the heaviest pre-frontal rains coming late Thursday night into Friday. There also look to be multiple moisture streams from the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico with high PWAT. Thus, there is the potential for a period of heavy rainfall, but too much uncertainty at this time to be specific with timing and amounts. Does the best jet dynamics and thermal forcing stay west or go over the area? These are some of the questions that should be able to be answered in coming days.

Ahead of the main frontal band, there will be a chance of showers on Thursday along with plenty of clouds with a strong onshore flow off the Atlantic. Conditions will dry out over the weekend, but there will be chance for scattered showers with the upper trough working across the area and another cold front on Sunday.

While somewhat cooler conditions are possible this weekend, temperatures overall will be several degrees above normal prior to the frontal passage late Friday, especially for lows. It will also be quite humid Thursday into Friday with dew points in the 60s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. High pressure will settle off the New England coast today.

VFR today. Potential for MVFR ceilings late tonight with a continued onshore flow and moistening low levels. However, there is low confidence at this time to go with widespread prevailing MVFR ceilings and there also looks to be enough low-level dry air to keep any fog patchy.

SE winds 7-12 kt, backing more easterly and diminishing tonight.

Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty . Chance of IFR/MVFR ceilings late tonight into Tuesday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Tue PM. VFR. Wed. MVFR or lower possible in showers mainly PM hours. SE winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Thu. MVFR or lower possible in showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms afternoon into evening. SE/S winds 10-15 kt gusts 20-25 kt. SE-S winds near 10 kt with gusts more in the 15-20 kt range at night. Fri. MVFR or lower possible in showers. SW-W winds near 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt. Sat. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Sub SCA conditions are expected through the day Wednesday. However, a strengthening southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will allow for wind gusts to approach 20 kt on all waters Wednesday afternoon.

Continued southerly flow between the offshore high and a slow moving cold front will likely produce SCA conditions on the ocean waters Thursday into Friday.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through Wednesday.

Significant rainfall is possible with a slow moving cold front late Thursday into Friday. However, specific rainfall amounts and any impacts are too uncertain at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There is a moderate rip current risk through Tuesday due to persistent easterly swells. This will likely continue into the mid week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JP/DW NEAR TERM . JP/JT SHORT TERM . JP LONG TERM . DW AVIATION . JC MARINE . JP/DW HYDROLOGY . JP/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 7 mi59 min ESE 9.7 G 14 70°F 78°F58°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 30 mi56 min SE 8 G 12 72°F 74°F1027.3 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 34 mi59 min E 12 G 16 71°F 62°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 36 mi56 min SSE 11 G 17 70°F 73°F1028.8 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 37 mi44 min 12 G 14 71°F1027.2 hPa (+0.0)
44022 - Execution Rocks 40 mi59 min ENE 9.7 G 14 72°F 64°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 41 mi56 min SSW 5.1 G 8 72°F 1028.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi34 min ESE 9.7 G 14 73°F1027 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY6 mi48 minSE 10 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F56°F54%1027.8 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY8 mi48 minVar 610.00 miFair73°F55°F53%1028.1 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY20 mi51 minESE 910.00 miFair71°F54°F55%1028.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY22 mi2.9 hrsSE 810.00 mi74°F58°F57%1027.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7NE7CalmS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmSE43E4SE8SE10SE9SE10
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1 day ago4NW7NW6S3CalmCalmNW4NW4N8NW11NW12N10N10N10N9N8N10N14
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2 days agoNE8NE7NE6NE8NE7NE6NE9NE9NE8NE9NE9NE8N9NE8N11N8N10N7N8NW7N10NE6N6N7

Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Long Island, New York
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Patchogue
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:52 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:29 AM EDT     0.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:10 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 11:45 PM EDT     0.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.50.30.10-00.10.20.50.70.80.80.70.50.40.20.100.10.20.40.70.8

Tide / Current Tables for Mastic Beach, Moriches Bay, Long Island, New York
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Mastic Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:44 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:34 AM EDT     0.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:02 PM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     0.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.40.20.10-00.10.20.30.50.60.60.50.40.30.10000.20.30.50.6

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