Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Patchogue, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Patchy fog and black ice possible tonight and Saturday night.

2) Snow showers expected on Sunday.

3) Multiple waves of low pressure will impact the area Tuesday through Friday of next week. Little to no impacts.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Weak return flow, as well as residual moisture from the melting snowpack, will produce some fog and possibly some black ice early this morning. Will continue to monitor for the need of any Special Weather Statements.

As for tonight/early Sunday morning, fog development would be more likely to occur during the evening hours before a northerly flow strengthens overnight. Because of this timing, freezing fog would appear to only be possible well inland tonight due to anticipated temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2
No advisories are currently anticipated for snow or wind chills.

A cold front moves through the area tonight, but with little moisture to accompany it. Deeper moisture follows on Sunday along with PVA to bring snow/snow showers across the area. NBM PoPs have trended upward from the previous runs and qpf fields from several models imply the likelihood of precipitation occurring, so have gone above NBM PoPs for Sunday. Precip should be exiting out of the eastern zones by the end of the day. Thermal profiles support snow, although boundary layer profiles are close to allowing some rain to potentially mix in for southern zones. Will keep the forecast as all snow. Above-freezing temps through the event and daytime timing will mitigate snow accumulations. Anticipating 1-2 inches of snow across CT and much of Lower Hudson Valley, with under an inch elsewhere.
Minor impacts for the most part, but brief moderate/heavier snowfall may overcome any melting on the roadways for a short time. Special Weather Statements should be able to handle impact messaging as needed.

Colder air filters in from the north during Sunday night with minimum wind chills in the single digits. Highs for Monday only in the 20s for most spots.


KEY MESSAGE 3
Upper air pattern is forecast to change this period as a trough becomes established across the western half of the country by the end of the period, with broad upper level ridging across the east.
This will support a period of mild weather with a storm track generally to the north and west of the forecast area. This supports mainly rain through the week. But with cold air in place Tuesday morning, precipitation ahead of a warm front may initially start off as snow before going over to rain. Transition likely occurs before a steadier precipitation develops. Expect little or no snowfall accumulation at the coast with perhaps and inch or two across the interior. Low pressure passes to the northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday with conditions briefly drying out Wednesday. Another frontal wave approaches from the Mid Mississippi Valley Wednesday night into Thursday bringing chances of rain into the area.

Temperatures trending warmer than normal starting on Wednesday.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure will remain in control today while gradually moving offshore. A cold front approaches this evening.

Periods of sub VFR for most terminals early this morning, then VFR expected for much of the day, before a period of sub VFR returning towards or just before 00z Sunday.

There remains uncertainty around the degree of vsby restrictions in fog, and low ceilings with stratus this morning. Fog has started to develop, the question is how far will the fog expand and just how bad will it get. A few terminals could get down to VLIFR, otherwise mainly LIFR and IFR expected. There is a relatively higher confidence for sub VFR conditions for the city and NJ terminals, with somewhat less confidence for KSWF and KISP, KBDR, and KGON.

Light and variable winds this morning. A light S to SSW flow develops after sunrise, with winds 5 to 10 kt at times during the afternoon and mainly out of the SW, with possible gusts for KSWF. Winds generally at or below 5 kt Saturday evening.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Unscheduled amendments are possible overnight and through the day Saturday into Saturday evening. Sub VFR conditions, with IFR and MVFR conditions may extend into the day Saturday, but confidence of this remains low.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Late tonight: Pockets of Sub VFR at times early with light winds, otherwise mainly VFR with winds becoming N.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible with light snow showers or flurries.
N/NW winds G15-20 kt.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower with a rain/snow mix in the morning, becoming plain rain during the afternoon and into the evening south to north.

Wednesday: MVFR, possibly IFR, with a chance of rain, mainly in the morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-advisory conditions expected for the most part today through Tuesday. The exception being Sunday night on the ocean when gusts around 25kt will be possible as the pressure gradient tightens with northerly gusts.

There will then be a chance of marginal SCA conditions on the ocean waters next week as multiple waves of low pressure pass to the NW with warm frontal passages. The first chance will be Tuesday night into Wednesday in the warm sector as SW winds strengthen.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.