Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Patchogue, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Fog has been gradually clearing from west to east this morning and is expected to move out of eastern CT and LI by around 7 AM.

An anomalously deep closed upper low and longwave trough (-3 to -5 std) continues to dig into the Ohio Valley this morning. A broad area of low pressure is passing overhead and will drag a weak cold front through this morning and a stronger cold front later today.

Currently light rain is falling along the front as it moves through and this activity will gradually shift east through the day. Any convective activity likely misses the area to the south and east where the greater instability is along with a LLJ. Some 06z guidance this morning is more aggressive with PoPs this afternoon with a stronger wave of low pressure moving over or nearby the area this afternoon. This trend will need to be monitored as it will result in wetter conditions than currently forecast.

A stronger cold front moves through later today and the coldest airmass of the season will usher in with strong CAA. Guidance consensus is that temperatures at several levels of the atmosphere will be below or near the lowest daily observed values for 11/11 12z per SPC's Sounding Climatology Page.
Temperatures at 850mb are expected to be around -12C. The low temperature forecast tonight generally remained the same or lowered a degree or two. Confidence was high enough to convert the Freeze Watch to a Warning and add Queens County.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Upper level trough axis swings through during the day on Tuesday and then brief zonal flow is expected before a shortwave trough swings through Wednesday night.

The main story of the short term is the gusty winds on Tuesday.
Model soundings are showing deep mixing with strong winds at the top of the mixed layer. Went higher than NBM 90th percentile but thinking the forecast will trend even higher. 40 kt gusts are not out of the question.

Additionally, given the deep cyclonic flow and heart of polar airmass expected over the area on Tuesday, scattered to broken cold pool instability cu development is expected. Some light snow showers with extended lake streamers off the mild Great Lakes are possible for the interior.

Model agreement lowers a bit for Wednesday with the shortwave trough and associated surface features. Forecast is currently dry, but some guidance is trending towards a stronger and wetter solution like the 11/10 00z NAM.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key points:

* Temperatures slightly below seasonal normals much of the time, and up to 5 degrees below normal Friday night through Saturday night.

* Brisk westerly flow likely Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A wave of low pressure and cold front moves through the terminals through this evening.

Improvement to VFR will continue from west to east early this morning with IFR-LIFR persisting through around 11z for KGON.
This improvement looks temporary as ceilings should fall back to MVFR 12-14z, although confidence in flight categories this morning into the early afternoon remains low. It is entirely possible for VFR conditions to prevail with intermittent showers into the early afternoon. Conditions should improve mid to late afternoon as the cold front moves further east with VFR prevailing thereafter.

A light NW flow develops early this morning and should generally remain NW under 10 kt into the early afternoon. WNW-NW winds increase after 18z, becoming 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt possible. Gusts likely linger this evening and could persist overnight around 20 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for flight categories into early this afternoon as there is uncertainty with the timing and extent of MVFR. There is a low chance for IFR ceilings.

Start time of gusts may be delayed 1-3 hours late this morning/early afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Night: VFR. NW-W winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G25-35kt.

Wednesday: VFR. WSW winds G20-30kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-30kt.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Patchy dense fog may linger over the eastern LI Sound and Peconic and Gardiners Bays until about 7 AM this morning.

Winds and seas gradually increase today and Small Craft Advisories are in effect.

The Gale Watch has been converted to a Gale Warning on all waters for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds will gust as high as 35 to 40 kts and seas will reach around 10 ft on the ocean.

An extended period of hazardous marine conditions is likely across the forecast waters, with at least SCA conditions Wednesday Night through late Friday on the non ocean waters and into Friday evening for the ocean waters. There may be a brief period of gusts below SCA levels on the non ocean waters Thursday evening into Thursday night. Westerly gales are likely to develop on the ocean waters Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns are expected through the weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ009>012.
NY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ071>075- 078>081-176>179.
NJ...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for NJZ006-104- 106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ355.