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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 330 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain.

ANZ300 330 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure builds into the area and remains in place through Thursday. A series of weak low pressure systems will produce chances for precipitation Friday, Sunday, and early next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 282029 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 329 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds into the area and remains in place through Thursday. A series of weak low pressure systems will produce chances for precipitation Friday, Sunday, and early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
An upper level shortwave pushes through the area this evening allowing for any residual snow showers in the area this afternoon and evening to dissipate shortly after sunset. At the surface, high pressure builds in from the southwest as a large low pressure system to the northeast over Southeast Canada pushes further away from the area. This will continue to allow for a tight pressure gradient through the overnight period. A brisk W/WNW flow advects some of the coldest air seen thus far this season into the area.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to middle 20s for much of the area. The NYC metro will see temperatures around 30.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure continues to build into the area on Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions expected. While the pressure gradient slowly relaxes, a brisk W/WNW wind at 10-15 mph with some gusts up to 20 mph will continue to advect cool air into the area. As a result, high temperatures during the day on Wednesday will only rise into the middle to upper 30s for much of the area. Some areas along the coast may near 40 degrees, about 10 degrees below average.

Another cold night is expected Wednesday night with lows in the low to middle 20s for much of the area. Coastal areas and the NYC metro should drop to around freezing.



LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A warming trend on Thu as a weak thermal ridge builds in and the flow aloft flattens. This will result in a 10 degree jump in temps from Wed. The NBM was used.

A srn stream wave moves thru on Fri. The modeling is in pretty good agreement with this feature. This should produce a round of rain across the area, ending by Sat mrng per the 12Z guidance. The sys is progressive and lacks strong advection, so mainly a lgt to mdt rain swath is expected attm.

There is a chance for some shwrs or lgt rain on Sat with swly flow aloft. However, chances are relatively low with mid lvl dry air to overcome. Pops are in the 20 percent range for Sat.

Mild Fri and Sat and the NBM was used. Highs in the 40s to around 50 expected attm.

Continued mild on Sun with highs still in the 40s and 50s. A nrn stream trof begins to dig down on Sun, allowing weak low pres to develop off the coast. This sys will result in chances for rain on Sun.

The upr trof may dig into the region Mon and Tue, allowing another low to take shape. Model uncertainty is high this far out, so the consensus approach with the NBM was used. However, there is the potential for this portion of the fcst to turn out colder, with perhaps some wintry pcpn at least across the interior.

AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure slowly builds in from the west.

VFR through the TAF period. A chance of light snow showers/flurries though 29/00z. Chances of any obstructions to visibility and MVFR ceilings are low.

West winds around 20kt with gusts 25-30kt slowly diminish this evening and early tonight. West winds around 10 kt expected on Wednesday.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts of at least 30kt for KJFK/KLGA/KEWR will be most likely during the period of through 29/00z. During this same period, KTEB could occasionally gust to 30kt. Isolated gusts possible overnight but winds are expected to diminish.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18z Wed-Thu: VFR.

Fri: VFR in the morning, MVFR or lower in rain in the afternoon and night.

Sat: VFR.

Sun. Chance of rain or showers. MVFR or lower possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A gale warning remains on the ocean waters through tonight with gusts upwards of 35-40 kt expected. Small craft advisories also continue for the sheltered and non-ocean waters tonight with gusts upwards of 30 kt. The pressure gradient relaxes a bit on Wednesday to allow for conditions to drop below gale force.
Small craft conditions will be likely on the ocean with gusts near 25 kt during the day and seas near 5 feet. Non- ocean waters should largely remain below small craft conditions but an occasional 25 kt gust can't be ruled out. Seas may allow small craft advisories conditions to continue on the ocean through Wednesday night.

Mrgnl sca seas on the ocean Thu thru Sat, otherwise, winds blw sca lvl on all waters. Some stronger nely winds possible on Sun as low pres develops in the ocean. A sca for all waters is possible.
Conditions improve on Mon behind the sys.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through Tuesday of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.

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Biltmore Shores
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Tue -- 04:22 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:05 AM EST     1.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:14 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:36 PM EST     1.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Biltmore Shores, South Oyster Bay, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Throg's Neck
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Tue -- 03:01 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:52 AM EST     0.99 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:29 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:00 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:08 PM EST     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:14 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:16 PM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:27 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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