Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ranshaw, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:41PM Thursday December 12, 2019 4:52 PM EST (21:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:15PMMoonset 7:37AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 340 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Rest of this afternoon..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely or a chance of freezing rain.
Fri night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain or snow likely in the morning, then rain.
ANZ500 340 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure over the region will shift offshore through this tonight. A low pressure system developing over the northern gulf of mexico will move northeastward toward the region Friday into Saturday. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday through Sunday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ranshaw, PA
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location: 40.77, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 122106 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 406 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. Fair weather pattern today will turn stormy Friday through the weekend with risk of icy spots, heavy rain, and lake effect snow. Temperatures will trend milder into Saturday before gusty winds direct colder air back into the region by Sunday. Winter weather threat continues for Monday into Tuesday with the potential for snow and ice accumulation.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Expect a general increase in cloudiness through tonight. Tricky forecast heading into early Friday morning with potential for light ice accumulation across parts of south central PA.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Increasing southerly flow ahead of an amplifying upper trough and low pressure system will gradually spread precipitation northward into retreating cold air damming surface ridge early Friday. Hires models suggest some patchy freezing drizzle is possible during the predawn hours Friday over south central PA. Confidence is low at this point, but any ice could result in high impact to AM commute. HREF and NBM show light QPF spreading north of the PA/MD line after 12Z. The timing/onset of precip in the 12Z to 18Z window is critical for ice threat with ramp-up of POP/QPF coincident with sfc temps climbing just above freezing. Considered an advisory in collaboration with PBZ/LWX MD zones but overall confidence is just not there yet.

Continued to trend max temps Friday on the low-side or below NBM given moisture overrunning the cold air damming pattern early in the day. Temps will be warm enough for rain in most areas by 00Z Saturday. The western Allegheny ridgetops could see freezing rain risk extend into early Friday night. Soaking rain is expected Friday night into early Saturday morning with a narrow diurnal range over the 24 hour period. Highest QPF between 0.50 to 0.75 inches is forecast over east-central PA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/.

*Heavy rain possible (1-2 inches) in east-central PA Friday night into Saturday *Period of snow with higher amounts in the NW mtns Saturday nightinto Sunday. *Mixed precipitation likely later Monday into Tuesday; potentialfor winter weather should be monitored

Low pressure system will draw deep moisture/above normal PW northward into the area Friday night resulting in widespread moderate to briefly heavy rainfall.

Models have some disagreement on timing and intensity. However, given an adjustment to the NBM. The Storm total rainfall should remain in the 1 to 1.5 inches range across east-central PA. Will need to watch for a transition back to snow on the backside of the system as the upper low pivots into the Northeast. Gusty northwest flow in the wake of the system will usher cold air back into the region. Lake effect snow accumulation is likely in the favored upslope high terrain and snowbelts Sat night into Sunday. Due to lake moisture and the strength of flow have increased snow amounts slightly. Temperatures trend colder Saturday to Monday with another winter weather threat early next week. There will be a potential for snow and ice to impact the area later Monday into Tuesday. Updated local winter storm outlook graphics on the web and HWO to reflect the latest trends/probs.Below average temps are forecast into the second half of next week.


AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure building into the region will ensure VFR conditions and light wind through this evening.

Outlook.

Fri . Rain/low cigs likely, especially late.

Sat . Rain/low cigs likely, especially early. Windy late.

Sun . Gusty west wind. AM low cigs/snow showers possible W Mtns.

Mon . PM low cigs/wintry mix possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Steinbugl NEAR TERM . Steinbugl SHORT TERM . Steinbugl LONG TERM . Ceru/Martin AVIATION . Steinbugl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 88 mi58 min 37°F 43°F1038.8 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 92 mi52 min 37°F 40°F1038.6 hPa (-1.3)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 93 mi58 min SE 5.1 G 8.9 37°F 42°F1039.2 hPa

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selinsgrove Penn Valley Airport, PA19 mi2 hrsS 310.00 miFair33°F14°F45%1038 hPa
Muir Army Air Field / Indiantown, PA23 mi1.9 hrsSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F14°F43%1038.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSEG

Wind History from SEG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6
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W5NW8CalmW3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm5S3
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 06:23 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:09 AM EST     1.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:00 PM EST     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:55 PM EST     2.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.421.61.10.70.40.20.30.71.11.41.310.70.3-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.30.31.122.62.8

Tide / Current Tables for Millside, RR. bridge, Delaware
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Millside
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:05 AM EST     4.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:29 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:15 PM EST     5.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:37 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.84.53.62.51.40.70.1-00.72.345.15.65.44.63.52.41.50.70.1012.53.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.