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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1034 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Rest of tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ500 1034 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure will settle north of the mid-atlantic through the middle of the week. A cold front will approach Friday. Small craft advisories may be needed late Friday.

FXUS61 KCTP 030318 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1118 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A summer-like surge of unseasonable warmth to start October will last through midweek. Fog will reduce visibility in the valleys during the early morning hours across the western and central Alleghenies. A round of rain is likely to end the week followed by cooler and breezy conditions with rain showers downwind of Lake Erie over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Clear skies and a calm wind under a surface ridge should allow temperatures to fall a bit below NBM guidance overnight, as occurred last night. Lows in the 50s will be close to 10 degrees above early October climo. Latest dewpoint depressions and model guidance indicate patchy valley fog is a near certainty overnight, with the earliest onset and densest fog likely in the deep river/stream valleys north of I-80.

SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Persistence forecasting and the latest NAMNest suggest fog will mix out between 13Z-15Z, with only scattered afternoon cumulus focused on the high terrain of the Alleghenies. Ensemble mean 2m and 850mb temps rise a couple of degrees Tuesday, supporting highs in the upper 70s to low 80s over most of the forecast area, which is around 15 degrees above average for early October.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Ridging along the east coast will support a continuation of warm weather and light winds through Thursday across Central PA.
Patchy morning valley fog appears very likely Wednesday and somewhat less likely Thursday, as the surface ridge axis edges east of the area.

Ensemble mean 2m and 850mb temps remain unchanged into Wednesday, resulting in another very warm early October day with highs ranging from the upper 70s over the Alleghenies to the mid 80s in the Lower Susq Valley. Model soundings show very dry air above a weak inversion Wednesday afternoon, a signature that usually supports undercutting NBM dewpoints. Therefore have leaned toward the lower MAV guidance. Progged temps aloft remain unseasonably warm into Thursday. However, models indicate warm advection aloft preceding an upstream trough could spread cirrus over the area, which would hold temperatures down several degrees.

All current guidance pushes a sharp cold front through the area Friday PM, accompanied by a round of showers and possible tsra.
In its wake, latest GEFS and ECENS indicate the associated cut off upper low will linger over the Eastern Grt Lks into early next week. This scenario supports a high confidence of below normal temperatures Saturday-Monday, along with breezy conditions.

The arriving airmass should be plenty cold enough to support lake effect Saturday into Monday. However, the exact position of the upper low will determine how favorable the setup is for lake effect showers over the Alleghenies. Some model guidance indicates surface ridging and a westerly boundary layer flow could keep the highest POPs north of the border. At any rate, cold temps aloft should at least generate scattered, diurnally-driven showers, with the potential of a steadier lake-effect rain over the NW Mtns. The lowest heights and greatest 2m temp anomalies are targeted for Sunday, when readings are likely to be stuck in the 40s over the Alleghenies all day.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR with light to calm winds into tonight with fog impacts expected during the predawn and early morning hours Tuesday.
Leaned on persistence to inform onset and duration of IFR-VLIFR conditions with relatively high confidence. Fog dissipates by 14Z giving way to VFR through Tuesday evening.

Outlook...

Wed...AM valley fog mainly western and central TAFs.

Thu...AM valley fog possible mainly central and eastern TAFs.

Fri...Rain/showers and sub-VFR likely.

Sat...Rain/showers and sub-VFR likely especially western airspace. Wind shift with passing cold front; turning breezy with sfc wind gusts from ~270 degrees 20+ kts.

CLIMATE
Bradford recorded the 3rd driest September on record with only 1.54 inches of rain for the month.

Top 5 Driest September at Bradford (POR started in 1957):

1. 0.85" 1964 2. 1.53" 1960 3. 1.54" 2023 4. 1.76" 2001 5. 1.79" 1969

A couple of daily high temperature records are within reach at Altoona and State College (STCP1) on Tuesday 10/3:

Altoona: 84 in 1951 State College: 84 in 1919

Bradford could tie or set new record highs for several days this week:

10/2: 79 in 2019 10/3: 78 in 1959 10/4: 78 in 2017 10/5: 81 in 2007 10/6: 79 in 2013

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:16 AM EDT     3.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:07 AM EDT     1.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:13 PM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:17 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Millside
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:00 AM EDT     5.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:54 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:22 PM EDT     6.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:33 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Millside, RR. bridge, Delaware , Tide feet

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