Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ranshaw, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Trending seasonably cooler this weekend into next week with bulk of precipitation confined near and southeast of Lake Erie

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Trending seasonably cooler this weekend into next week with bulk of precipitation confined near and southeast of Lake Erie

Following one of the warmest starts to November on record in central PA, (see climate section) temperatures will trend seasonably cooler/lower this weekend into next week. Persistent cyclonic flow over the next 5 days or so with embedded shortwave disturbances will offer ample opportunities for precip downwind or southeast of Lake Erie while limiting moisture in the lee of (to the east) of the Allegheny Mountains. A more substantial long wave trough may attempt to carve out over the eastern U.S. by the end of the week.

A compact and seasonably strong closed upper low pivots to the southeast from the thumb of lower MI through CPA tonight into tomorrow before lifting out of the area by Sunday morning. This feature accompanied by cool air aloft and mean west to NW flow will bring scattered to numerous showers to start the first full weekend of November. Extensive cloud cover and a WNW wind should provide a floor for min temps. A few wet snowflakes can't be ruled out at the peak elevations of the NW Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Mtn summits, but no accumulation is expected.
Saturday will be noticeably cooler and feel rather chilly given how warm it has been during the day over the past week or so.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Pattern transitions toward a cooler westerly flow tonight through early next week. This translates into periods of MVFR to IFR cigs at times for KBFD and KJST and MVFR to low VFR cigs at airfields to the east of the Allegheny Mtns. Showers should be most concentrated downwind of Lake Erie with highest confidence at KBFD. It will be a breezy period as well with gusts in the 20-25kt range.

Outlook...

Sat-Mon...Breezy with sub-VFR ceilings possible over the NW 1/2 of the airspace (and showers in the NW on Saturday). Max gusts around 25kt.

Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR with SW to W winds gusting up to around 15-25 kts during the daytime.

CLIMATE
The sun will set at 5PM on Saturday 11/7 in State College. This will mark the beginning of a 2 month stretch during which sunsets will occur before 5PM.

It has been one of the warmest starts to November on record in central PA. Here are the average temperature rankings from Nov.
1-5th:

SITE AVG Temp Rank Harrisburg 57.9F #13th warmest Williamsport 55.8F #7th warmest Altoona 57.9F #6th warmest Bradford 54.6F #5th warmest State College 57.1F #4th warmest Johnstown 59.1F #2nd warmest *since 2000

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.