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LEZ144 Expires:202312021515;;756677 Fzus51 Kcle 020830 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 330 am est Sat dec 2 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-021515- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 330 am est Sat dec 2 2023
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of showers early, then a slight chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. A slight chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 44 degrees, off cleveland 45 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 021804 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 104 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will move northeast across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. A ridge will briefly build into the Ohio Valley on Monday before a stronger trough crosses the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
930 AM Update...
Much of the precipitation has ended this morning, but dreary conditions are expected to continue through the day as the stalled boundary begins to move across the area. Only adjustments made with this update were to the temperatures to reflect current observations, but other than that the forecast remains on track.

615 am...Still seeing some light rain and/or drizzle across the area this morning although coverage appears to be decreasing as the better mid-level moisture exits north and northeast.
Nonetheless, a cloudy day remains in store across the region today with patches of drizzle possible. For tonight, the fog potential appears to be increasing as a weak stationary front settles across northern OH.

Previous Discussion...
Scattered light rain showers and drizzle continue across the region early this morning as weakening low pressure leads to residual surface troughing through today. A mid-level dry slot will punch northeast across the Ohio Valley today, although an inversion around 850 mb will keep the low levels moist, contributing to the continued cloudiness. The environment should be slightly less conducive to light rain and/or drizzle later this morning and afternoon, especially along and south of the US-30 corridor, as upper- level moisture decreases, weakening the seeder-feeder mechanism.

By Sunday, the next system will impact the region with widespread rain and wind. A deepening upper-level trough will quickly strengthen across the Ohio Valley on Sunday, maxing out at around 170 to 180 knots of southwesterly flow aloft (300 mb), eliciting a surface low response and associated cold front across the Lower Great Lakes. Rain will sweep west to east across the area late Sunday morning and afternoon with a few pre- frontal showers also possible ahead of the system, especially east of the I-77 corridor. Southwest to west wind gusts will maximize around 25 to perhaps 30 mph along the cold front.

Slightly above average temperatures are forecast through the near term period with highs for both weekend days in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The forecast area will be on the backside of a deepening low pressure system on Sunday night. This low will still be close enough to allow for some residual rain or wet snow chances for Sunday night into Monday. This will especially be the case with a cold front through the region that will allow for some lake enhancement with favorable flow off Lake Erie. Therefore, have the highest PoPs for Sunday night and Monday in NE OH and NW PA. In addition to the precipitation chances, there will be a notable increase in winds across the region on Sunday night with strong jet energy aloft southeast of the forecast area but the departing surface low to assist in bringing some of this wind to the surface. Do not believe there will be any wind headlines but 15-20 mph winds may shake around some holiday decorations.
Temperatures will fall apart quickly behind the cold front and high temperatures on Monday will be in the lower 40s.

There should be a general reprieve of precipitation on Monday night with some surface ridging entering the region and may counteract the shortwave trough moving through aloft and have biased PoPs down a bit during that part of the period. For Tuesday, a more potent trough will enter from the northwest and allow for a low pressure system to move through the region. Have PoPs increasing again up to likely for Tuesday afternoon and evening and lowering with the passage of the associated cold front Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The long term forecast period appears uneventful at this time. The larger upper level trough that will impact the region to start the week will be exiting by Wednesday morning and upper level ridging will start to move overhead. Some pieces of energy will move through the upper flow and could bring some low rain chances, but believe that the trend in the forecast will end up being dry with time.
However, with a ridge entering the region, the temperature forecast trend will be warmer through the week and temperatures starting below normal on Wednesday should end up slightly above normal by Friday.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/
Much of the area has fallen to MVFR or lower conditions this afternoon as a low pressure slowly moves across the area. There remains isolated light showers along the eastern shore of Lake Erie, although impact from these showers is minimal. As the aforementioned low tracks across the area, ceilings will drop from MVFR to IFR by 00Z, if not LIFR in some spots. In addition, patchy areas of fog will result in visibilities also diminishing, especially overnight as winds calm and an inversion sets up. Wouldn't be surprised to see patchy areas of fog that reduce visibility lower than the 1SM currently in the TAF, but confidence in this occurring at specific terminals is low so opted to not include with this update. Overall opted for a fairly pessimistic aviation forecast with all sites expected to reach IFR/LIFR by tonight and persist through the remainder of the TAF period. Near the end of the period on Sunday, rain showers will again build over the area. Winds through the period will be light and variable until early Sunday afternoon when they become sustained from the southwest at 5-10 knots. The strongest winds will occur after this TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected through Tuesday in low ceilings and/or periodic rain showers. Non-VFR may linger into Wednesday in lake-effect clouds.

MARINE
Low pressure over northern Indiana this morning will move northeast across the lake today. Light southerly flow will be over the lake ahead of the low and north to northeast flow will become favored tonight behind the low. Another low pressure system will target the region on Sunday and will deepen as it passes over the lake.
Southwest flow will be favored by Sunday afternoon and increase steadily to 20-25 by Sunday night. With this strong onshore flow, waves will build over 4 ft over the eastern half of the lake and a Small Craft Advisory headline is becoming more likely. Some ridging will build from the south on Monday, lessening winds a bit with a weaker pressure gradient and veer winds a touch to the northwest.
Another low pressure system will move through the region for the middle of the week and a warm front will approach the lake and back flow to the southwest across the basin for Tuesday. The main low and associated cold front will move across the region Tuesday night and northwest flow will be favored for the middle of the week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

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