Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mansfield, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Isolated/scattered showers with a few thunderstorms will continue to impact areas along and east of I-71 this afternoon.
This activity will gradually diminish diurnally and expect mainly dry conditions by 00Z. Recent radar trends suggest very short lived convection with individual cells raining out within a 30-60 minute period, and given limited organization and lower rainfall rates, flash flood risk is low at this time.

High pressure will build into the area tonight with clearing skies and light winds. This may lead to fog development across portions of the area, especially east of I-71 where rain fell over the past 12-24 hours. Kept dense fog mention out of the forecast at this time, however GLAMP/HRRR probs for dense fog are somewhat elevated, especially in vicinity of Youngstown northeast to Meadville.

High pressure will keep conditions dry for most of the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, with any precipitation Tuesday expected to remain south of the area near a nearly stationary boundary. Another day with above normal temperatures expected Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday as a mid level shortwave slowly moves northeast across the region, reflected in the forecast with high likely to cat pops. This wave will lift northeast of the local area by Wednesday night with pops decreasing in the absence of large scale forcing, although some lingering showers cannot be ruled out Wednesday night.

Pops increase again by Thursday afternoon in the likely/cat range as a potent shortwave digs east southeast into the Great Lakes, with a surface low tracking east through the lakes helping to push a cold front southeast into the local area.
Precip chances decrease Thursday night as the atmosphere diurnally stabilizes. No SPC severe weather outlooks for either day given lack of deep layer shear and low likelihood of organized convection.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Rather zonal pattern over the region Friday into Saturday with a lingering boundary across the southern part of the area pushing south by the weekend, as high pressure becomes entrenched across the Great Lakes. A shortwave is expected to track eastward across the area late Saturday night into Sunday, providing the next best chances for precipitation. Canadian high pressure attempts to regain control over the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday, with an amplifying ridge over the central CONUS into next week bringing more northeast mid/upper flow across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio valley. Temperatures may be closer to normal over the weekend, but the building ridge may bring above normal temps back to the area next week.

AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
Drier air will continue to work into the area behind the weak cold frontal boundary this evening. This will set up mainly VFR conditions tonight through Tuesday, however, small temp/dew point spreads, clear skies, and light winds will cause patchy fog development tonight. This will favor areas that saw rain earlier today, so added TEMPO groups to KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG.
Confidence is highest for the KYNG area, so added some 1/2 mile visibilities there. Any fog will dissipate by 13Z Tuesday.

Light and variable winds tonight will turn mainly S to SW at 5-10 knots Tuesday, but a lake breeze will affect KCLE and KERI by midday, shifting winds to N to NW.

Outlook...Non-VFR will return on Wednesday and Thursday in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Non-VFR chances may persist on Friday afternoon and evening in showers and thunderstorms, particularly across the southern portion of the area.

MARINE
Outside of thunderstorms, winds on Lake Erie are generally expected to be generally 10 knots or less into mid-next week. Winds will briefly increase to near 15 knots and shift towards the west to northwest behind a cold front Thursday into Friday. This could usher in some 2 to perhaps 3-footers across the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie. The most widespread thunderstorm chances across the lake will occur in the afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday and Thursday. Gusty winds will be the primary concern with any stronger storms.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.