Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oakley, UT
May 6, 2024 1:02 AM MDT (07:02 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 4:17 AM Moonset 6:07 PM |
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KSLC 052127 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 327 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold, unsettled pattern will continue through midweek across much of the region...bringing significant northern mountain snow accumulations. A gradual warming and drying trend is expected across northern Utah late in the week. This warm-up may be slower across southern Utah as a remnant low remains in place across the area.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Tuesday)...It's feeling a lot more like March than May, especially across northern Utah as snow is being reported along the Wasatch Front as low as 4200 feet. Afternoon upper air and satellite analysis indicates and large, potent upper level low near the Idaho/Oregon/Nevada triple point. With 700mb temperatures near -7 to -8C, precipitation has changed over to snow as low as 4000 feet or so in association with a band of heavy precipitation near and behind a strong cold front.
Strong, gusty winds to 55 mph continue across the eastern and southern valleys this afternoon. The cold front has progressed east of the I-15 corridor however, so allowed the wind advisories for west central and southwest Utah to expire. Wind advisories continue through the mid to late evening for more eastern and southern valleys...and this looks to be on track based on current observation and model trends.
This upper level low will gradually shift across the region through Monday morning. Expect the band of moderate to heavy precipitation to gradually decrease in intensity (but not end)
this evening. With the loss of precipitation intensity, expect snow levels to gradually rise again to around 5000-5500 feet or so overnight tonight.
The longwave trough will remain across the northern United States, with reinforcing waves moving into the Great Basin through Tuesday morning. This will bring periods of valley rain and mountain snow and much cooler than normal temperatures through the remainder of the short term forecast period.
Current winter storm warning for the northern mountains remains on track
Will need to monitor the central mountains
as an advisory may be needed there. Otherwise, no changes are noted for the going winter headlines.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Tuesday)...A persistent period of broad cyclonic flow across northern portions and periodic low/mid level moisture advection will be maintained into Wednesday. Result, continued northern mountain snow accums, and potential for lake enhanced precip downstream of the GSL. Model consensus continues to key in on reinforcement of the mean long wave trough from the northern Great Basin region north across the northern Rockies with additional short wave energy and CAA phasing Tuesday, prior to the trough trending more into a shearing regime Wed on, this due to rapidly building heights on the lee side across the PacNW. Snow impacts still pointing to the high terrain, but temps/lapse rates will also support snow levels down into the valleys at times, especially with any convectively enhanced (higher) PI periods.
Details as always a lower probability forecast, but the set up is there.
Noting ensembles favoring increased ridge influence across northern portions by late week, this owing to a fairly notable warming trend focused Friday on. The southern portions however will still be influenced by a baggy closed low, though this will be filling in time. Trapped mid level moisture is likely to be retained within this regime, along with potential for diurnally driven convective showers forced by thermal input along and adjacent to terrain.
Forecast temp trends across the period see-sawing from 20 below climo at their coldest Tuesday, to roughly 10 degrees above climo later next weekend
The spring roller coaster continues
AVIATION
KSLC...Persistent rain-snow mix will diminish through the early evening, transitioning to vicinity shower activity until 04Z with another round of showers thereafter. MVFR to IFR CIGs and VIS will prevail under areas of precipitation. After 07Z, showers clear the terminal but continue over surrounding terrain, allowing for obscuration of mountainous terrain through the overnight hours. Gusty northwest winds will diminish through the early evening, switching to a light south flow after 02Z. After There is a 35% chance that winds remain light out of the west to northwest through the overnight.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A winter storm system will bring a mix of conditions across the forecast area through the remainder of the evening, with MVFR to IFR conditions across the northern half of the area and MVFR to VFR conditions across the south. Gusty winds will diminish behind the cold front west of the central mountain spine, while areas across eastern Utah will remain under strong southwesterly flow. Mountain obscuration is expected across the northern half of the area through the overnight hours while the southern half of the area sees clearing skies after midnight.
FIRE WEATHER
A potent late season storm will bring mountain snow...with occasional snow as low as 4200 feet through the evening. Mountain snow will continue across northern and central Utah into Wednesday. Long term into next weekend, the main question is how quickly a warming/drying trend will build into the state
For northern Utah
guidance is consistent in a warming and drying trend. For southern Utah, around 50% of the guidance suggests a similar warming and drying trend, while 50% of the guidance suggests a remnant, weakening upper level low may slow the warming trend through next weekend.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Tuesday for UTZ110>112.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ114-120-121- 126>131.
Wind Advisory until 3 PM MDT Monday for UTZ115.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for UTZ119.
Wind Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for UTZ122.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 327 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold, unsettled pattern will continue through midweek across much of the region...bringing significant northern mountain snow accumulations. A gradual warming and drying trend is expected across northern Utah late in the week. This warm-up may be slower across southern Utah as a remnant low remains in place across the area.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Tuesday)...It's feeling a lot more like March than May, especially across northern Utah as snow is being reported along the Wasatch Front as low as 4200 feet. Afternoon upper air and satellite analysis indicates and large, potent upper level low near the Idaho/Oregon/Nevada triple point. With 700mb temperatures near -7 to -8C, precipitation has changed over to snow as low as 4000 feet or so in association with a band of heavy precipitation near and behind a strong cold front.
Strong, gusty winds to 55 mph continue across the eastern and southern valleys this afternoon. The cold front has progressed east of the I-15 corridor however, so allowed the wind advisories for west central and southwest Utah to expire. Wind advisories continue through the mid to late evening for more eastern and southern valleys...and this looks to be on track based on current observation and model trends.
This upper level low will gradually shift across the region through Monday morning. Expect the band of moderate to heavy precipitation to gradually decrease in intensity (but not end)
this evening. With the loss of precipitation intensity, expect snow levels to gradually rise again to around 5000-5500 feet or so overnight tonight.
The longwave trough will remain across the northern United States, with reinforcing waves moving into the Great Basin through Tuesday morning. This will bring periods of valley rain and mountain snow and much cooler than normal temperatures through the remainder of the short term forecast period.
Current winter storm warning for the northern mountains remains on track
Will need to monitor the central mountains
as an advisory may be needed there. Otherwise, no changes are noted for the going winter headlines.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Tuesday)...A persistent period of broad cyclonic flow across northern portions and periodic low/mid level moisture advection will be maintained into Wednesday. Result, continued northern mountain snow accums, and potential for lake enhanced precip downstream of the GSL. Model consensus continues to key in on reinforcement of the mean long wave trough from the northern Great Basin region north across the northern Rockies with additional short wave energy and CAA phasing Tuesday, prior to the trough trending more into a shearing regime Wed on, this due to rapidly building heights on the lee side across the PacNW. Snow impacts still pointing to the high terrain, but temps/lapse rates will also support snow levels down into the valleys at times, especially with any convectively enhanced (higher) PI periods.
Details as always a lower probability forecast, but the set up is there.
Noting ensembles favoring increased ridge influence across northern portions by late week, this owing to a fairly notable warming trend focused Friday on. The southern portions however will still be influenced by a baggy closed low, though this will be filling in time. Trapped mid level moisture is likely to be retained within this regime, along with potential for diurnally driven convective showers forced by thermal input along and adjacent to terrain.
Forecast temp trends across the period see-sawing from 20 below climo at their coldest Tuesday, to roughly 10 degrees above climo later next weekend
The spring roller coaster continues
AVIATION
KSLC...Persistent rain-snow mix will diminish through the early evening, transitioning to vicinity shower activity until 04Z with another round of showers thereafter. MVFR to IFR CIGs and VIS will prevail under areas of precipitation. After 07Z, showers clear the terminal but continue over surrounding terrain, allowing for obscuration of mountainous terrain through the overnight hours. Gusty northwest winds will diminish through the early evening, switching to a light south flow after 02Z. After There is a 35% chance that winds remain light out of the west to northwest through the overnight.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A winter storm system will bring a mix of conditions across the forecast area through the remainder of the evening, with MVFR to IFR conditions across the northern half of the area and MVFR to VFR conditions across the south. Gusty winds will diminish behind the cold front west of the central mountain spine, while areas across eastern Utah will remain under strong southwesterly flow. Mountain obscuration is expected across the northern half of the area through the overnight hours while the southern half of the area sees clearing skies after midnight.
FIRE WEATHER
A potent late season storm will bring mountain snow...with occasional snow as low as 4200 feet through the evening. Mountain snow will continue across northern and central Utah into Wednesday. Long term into next weekend, the main question is how quickly a warming/drying trend will build into the state
For northern Utah
guidance is consistent in a warming and drying trend. For southern Utah, around 50% of the guidance suggests a similar warming and drying trend, while 50% of the guidance suggests a remnant, weakening upper level low may slow the warming trend through next weekend.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Tuesday for UTZ110>112.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ114-120-121- 126>131.
Wind Advisory until 3 PM MDT Monday for UTZ115.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for UTZ119.
Wind Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for UTZ122.
WY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Salt Lake City, UT,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE