Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 7:06AM||Sunset 6:14PM||Wednesday February 24, 2021 7:05 PM MST (02:05 UTC)||Moonrise 3:16PM||Moonset 5:46AM||Illumination 97%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakley, UTHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KSLC 242300 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 400 PM MST Wed Feb 24 2021
SYNOPSIS. A cold trough will move south across the forecast area today. High pressure will briefly develop across the area on Thursday before another storm system affects the area Friday into Saturday.
SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Saturday). The 700mb baroclinic zone continues to march southward across the forecast area with clouds forming over west central valleys and central mountains currently. There may be some light showers under these clouds but most weather cameras are basically showing flat bases to the cumulus clouds, although some of the mountain ones do show a ragged bottom indicating precip. Most of the high resolution models show that as this baroclinic band moves southward there will be an increase of shower activity so have increased PoPs for this evening over the southwest and west central valleys as well as adjacent mountains. Little if any impacts are expected with isolated to scattered snow showers this evening.
The main impact with the baroclinic zone and associated surface cold front will be winds. Winds over the western valleys have gusted to near 30 mph behind this front and as it descends through the canyons of Washington County, they will accelerate. Local in-house guidance is showing that winds will max out near 50 mph along the I-15 corridor between Leeds and Black Ridge as well as across the Beaver Dam mountains. A Wind Advisory has been issued for these areas from 6pm this evening until 8am Thursday. Main impacts will be better gas mileage heading south on I-15 and worse if heading north, but more importantly any high profile vehicles could get buffeted in occasional cross winds.
Ridge of high pressure moves in late tonight through Thursday, but temperatures will be several degrees below normal despite mostly sunny skies through early afternoon. High clouds will spread in across northern areas in the mid to late afternoon as another storm system approaches. Some light snow is expected in the northern mountains prior to sunrise Friday north of I-80 as the 700mb baroclinic zone and the entrance region to the 300mb jet overlap. The baroclinic zone will weaken as it heads southeast into east central Utah by midday and the jet support will also disengage. However, 500mb temperatures will continue to cool so instability showers are expected to continue through the day over northern areas, especially over the mountains. Winds along the Wasatch Front are expected to become southerly through the afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. Temperatures over the northern valleys may end up being higher than forecast if they remain southerly through the afternoon
The second portion of this cold trough will arrive late Friday night and spread snow over the northern mountains and adjacent valleys prior to sunrise. Precip is expected to remain north of Richfield through 12Z saturday.
LONG TERM (After 12z Saturday). The long term forecast will first focus on the storm system that should be ongoing across Utah by the start of the long term forecast period. Rounds of mountain and valley snow is expected. After a stormy weekend, the beginning of next week looks warm and dry. By Day 6 (Tuesday), models diverge with large uncertainties within the outputs on the handling of the H5 longwave pattern. The weekend storm and and the model discrepancies will be discussed below.
(Weekend Storm). A mean longwave trough axis across the interior mountain west will swing multiple shortwaves through the base of the main trough axis. As they do so, each subsequent shortwave will be stronger than its predecessor as the main trough axis continues to slow deepen increasing the forcing aloft. The first of the two shortwaves will be moving through northern Utah Saturday morning with ongoing mountain snow and light valley snow showers occurring through the morning hours. The mountains should maintain snow through the entire duration of the event while the valleys could see some brief lulls in the precipitation. As the first shortwave exits, a punch of CAA will spill into northern Utah indicative by cooling H7 temperatures. With the arrival of the second shortwave and having better dynamics and a colder temperature profile, this second shortwave will bring accumulating valley snow and some modest snowfall to the mountains. Some northern Wasatch mountains could be looking at advisory level snowfall and this will need to be monitored. Valleys should see light accumulations between 1-3" with benches seeing 3-6" from a Saturday morning to Sunday morning time period. Temperatures will be cooler on Saturday across northern Utah with these cooler temperatures eventually spreading south into central and southern Utah on Sunday. Additionally, as the main trough continues to dig south into northern Arizona, enhanced canyon winds in Washington County will be possible through Sunday morning.
(Next Week). Models are in good agreement in handling the ridging progged to move into the Great Basin and ushering in much quieter and warmer weather by Monday. Mid to upper 40s with isolated readings in the 50s will be common on Monday. Heading into the latter part of the long term the spread amongst the models increases in handling the H5 pattern over the western CONUS. The difference is whether ridging will remain in place keeping the weather quiet and warm (GFS), or bring in a Pacific trough into the Great Basin and allow for some cooler temperatures and the potential for some mountain snow showers to develop (EC/Canadian). With a low confidence the forecast approach is to keep a mainly dry and warm forecast until details begin to emerge to suggest otherwise.
AVIATION. VFR conditions are expected to continue at the SLC terminal through the TAF period. Vicinity snow showers and scattered clouds 3-6 kft AGL will continue through 00Z with northwest winds around 10 knots. There is a 20% chance a snow shower impacts the terminal bringing brief MVFR conditions.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. UT . Wind Advisory until 8 AM MST Thursday for UTZ019.
WY . None.
SHORT TERM . Struthwolf LONG TERM . Woodward AVIATION . Burghardt
For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php
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Wind History from 36U (wind in knots)
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