Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oakley, UT

DISCUSSION
Over the next 6 to 12 hours, the base of a broad trough over the PacNW region will pivot into northern Utah, helping to push a cold front into the northern half of the forecast area. Satellite imagery reveals a veil of cloud cover already draped across the western half of the area as moisture in the mid and upper levels increases, with radar returns showing weak echoes across southern Idaho and northwest Nevada (tied to the increasing lower level moisture focused along the leading edge of the cold front). This area of showers will continue to push into northwestern Utah through the overnight hours, with covering increasing substantially by around 3-4AM as the cold frontal boundary progresses farther into the region. This boundary is expected to progress into central Utah before losing strength, however, virtually no precipitation is expected south of the Wasatch Front. The cold front and associated precipitation will continue across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming through the morning and early afternoon hours, bringing cooler temperatures and upwards of around 0.1 inches of rainfall from the Ogden area northward through around 12PM.

As the boundary continues eastward, skies will gradually clear and allow for daytime heating to build instability in the post-frontal environment. This instability paired with the increased lower- level moisture will bring a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms after about 1-2PM in far northern Utah from the the Raft River Mountains eastward through the Cache Valley, and north of Brigham City.

The base of this broad trough will remain draped across the region through Thursday, leaving a cooler airmass in place for the northern half of the area, helping to favor below normal temperatures for this time of year. Before the trough moves out of the area, however, another trailing shortwave trough is expected to push through the northern half of the area. As a result, yet another cold front will push through much of the forecast area, but this time dry conditions are expected to prevail.

Friday forward, a dry and hot return flow will spread over Utah, allowing for daytime high temperatures to climb back above normal areawide alongside very dry conditions. As part of this broad southerly return flow, moisture is expected to increase across the Desert Southwest late in the week and over the weekend. There is still a great deal of uncertainty in how far north this moisture will push, and whether or not southern Utah gets into the mix.
Current model guidances is showing less than a 25% chance of moisture increasing enough in the lower levels to produce meaningful precipitation for areas south of the I-70 corridor.

AVIATION
KSLC...VFR conditions are forecast to persist at the KSLC terminal through tonight with generally diurnal wind shifts expected. Light rain showers may begin as early as 12z with the highest confidence of persistent light rain starting around 14z.
Scattered thunderstorms may develop near the terminal after 18z, though uncertainty remains regarding placement.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR conditions will persist across all terminals this evening with elevated winds persisting on occasion across our southern UT terminals. Some scattered thunderstorm development is expected across northern UT tomorrow afternoon after 18z with the highest confidence of impacts occurring near KLGU and perhaps KEVW and KOGD.

FIRE WEATHER
Gusty southwesterly winds and critical RH will persist through at least Wednesday, primarily across central and southern Utah. Gusts across western Utah will be highest today, reaching 30-40 mph across areas south of I-80. This area of highest winds will shift east by Tuesday, with the highest gusts across southern and eastern Utah. Winds are still likely to remain elevated on Wednesday across a similar area, though confidence is a bit lower depending on the location of a stalled cold front over central Utah. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning accordingly.

This cold front, crossing northern Utah late tonight then stalling, will result in a brief period of gusty northwest winds as well as the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms lingering into Tuesday afternoon. Overnight RH recoveries will briefly improve Tuesday night across northern Utah.

Conditions will remain very dry after Wednesday, likely resulting in pockets of critical fire weather conditions later in the week where winds are locally stronger. A secondary cold front will push through the area on Thursday, after which more stable conditions are expected.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT Tuesday for UTZ492-495-497.

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT Wednesday for UTZ484-489-493- 494-496-498.

WY...None.