Salt Lake City, UT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Salt Lake City, UT

June 20, 2024 1:02 AM MDT (07:02 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 9:03 PM
Moonrise 7:24 PM   Moonset 3:19 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Salt Lake City, UT
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Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 192215 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 415 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Temperatures will trend warmer across the area through Thursday before anomalous moisture spreads into eastern Utah late Thursday through Friday, bringing showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall and an associated flash flood risk. Drier conditions are expected over the weekend and into early next week with hot temperatures.

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)...Utah remains under a fairly dry and increasingly warm southwesterly flow aloft this afternoon, downstream of a diffuse trough currently sitting over the West Coast. Aside from some increasing cloud cover, generally quiet conditions will continue into the overnight hours. However, this is just the quiet before the storm.

Tomorrow, moisture will start to increase from the southeast, with contributions from Tropical Storm Alberto over the Gulf of Mexico. Initially, midlevel moisture will spread into the area tomorrow afternoon, with PWATs increasing to over 1 inch across the southeastern portions of the forecast area by 00z Friday.
Deeper moisture will then work its way in tomorrow night through Friday, with PWATs peaking at over 1.25 inches, mainly across southern/eastern Utah. This is anomalous for this time of year, and ensemble mean IVTs are above the 99th percentile (although keep in mind that this is typically one of our driest times of the year).

Generally, what can be expected with this pattern would be an initial round of high-based showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon across southeast Utah given inverted-V profiles in model soundings. Latest CAMS show this activity to be fairly isolated. However, there is a potential for strong microburst winds, with a majority of HRRR members showing an outflow boundary with 50-60+ mph gusts across the eastern Grand Staircase and Glen Canyon. With the arrival of deeper moisture, expect a transition to a greater potential for measurable rain as showers continue through the night (this supported by large-scale dynamics as the upstream trough weakens and ejects across Utah in several pieces).
Then, locally heavy rain will become more likely by Friday afternoon. Additionally, there should be sufficient shear to maintain a few organized storms, and latest CAMS are showing increased coverage of stronger storms with 40-50+ dBZ of simulated reflectivity from around the spine of Utah through the eastern valleys beginning late Friday morning. However, there is a potential limiting factor against strong convection on Friday, and that would be cloud cover. If enough clouds from Thursday night/Friday morning remain in place into the afternoon peak heating period, that could limit solar insolation and reduce the chances of strong convection. Nevertheless, something to watch, as any decent convection could pose problems in the many flash-flood prone areas across eastern Utah, including slot canyons, dry washes, and burn scars.

.LONG TERM (After 12z/6AM Saturday), Issued 423 AM MDT...
Heading through the weekend models maintain solid agreement on an area of high pressure building back into the forecast area. This area of high pressure will allow temperatures to rise back up to around 10-15 degrees above normal across the area, especially across the northern half of the area. This will be record challenging heat. For example, the high temperature forecast for SLC on Sunday, June 23 is 100 degrees while the record for the day stands at 101 degrees (set back in 2012). In addition to the daytime heat, overnight lows will remain fairly elevated in the low- to mid-70s, particularly across urbanized areas of northern Utah. For southern Utah, particularly lower Washington County, lows may not even drop below 80 degrees. The combination of the high daytime temperatures and minimal relief during the overnight hours raises concerns for those who are sensitive to heat and those with insufficient cooling methods. Will need to continue to assess the need for heat related headlines through at least Monday as this is the period where temperatures will be highest.

Precipitation-wise, much of the northern half of the area will remain dry under the influence of the high, however, moisture will linger over the southern half of Utah and bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms through at least Monday. Ensemble guidance from the EPS and GEFS still shows precipitable water values of upwards of 175-225% of normal along roughly the southern half of Utah. There is still some uncertainty revolving around how far north this moisture will creep, which is dependent on how much an active northern jet stream will suppress the high early in the week. Nonetheless, should still see at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern Utah late in the weekend/ early in the work week.
Higher than normal PWAT values will bring increased concern for flash flooding in the typical problem areas. Will need to see how models trend through the week... but the potential is there.

AVIATION
KSLC...Northwest winds will transition to southeast around 05Z. Mostly cloudy conditions will last through around 15Z with mostly clear conditions much of the day. There is uncertainty on timing of northwest winds, with a transition likely around likely around 19-21Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Mostly cloudy conditions are likely throughout southwest Wyoming and northern Utah, with clear conditions throughout southern Utah through the overnight and morning. Southwest winds will gust around 25 knots from 18-03Z throughout southern and eastern Utah. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds are likely for portions of southeast and east Utah from 21-06Z.

FIRE WEATHER
Warm and dry conditions will give way to increasing moisture spreading into southern/eastern Utah by later in the day Thursday through Friday. Initially, midlevel moisture will bring the threat of isolated dry lightning tomorrow afternoon across south-central through southeast Utah, along with isolated strong microbursts potentially in excess of 50 mph. Additionally, minimum relative humidities tomorrow will remain on the low side at least through the early part of the afternoon. This, combined with general southerly winds gusting to around 30 mph will bring isolated or borderline critical fire weather conditions to portions of south-central Utah where fuels have cured.

As the moisture becomes deeper Thursday night into Friday, showers and thunderstorms will increase, with the threat gradually transitioning from dry lightning and microbursts to locally heavy rain, still primarily focusing on southern/eastern Utah.
Thereafter, the airmass will trend a bit drier, but lingering low-level moisture may maintain at least isolated thunderstorms through the weekend.

Temperatures will trend cooler across eastern Utah for Friday in conjunction with the deeper moisture, then rebound for the weekend and becoming very hot again Sunday into the early part of next week.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSLC SALT LAKE CITY INTL,UT 3 sm68 minSE 0410 smMostly Cloudy68°F36°F30%29.98
KHIF HILL AFB,UT 24 sm67 minESE 1010 smMostly Cloudy68°F25°F19%29.99
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