Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Salt Lake City, UT

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...Another afternoon dealing with a broad cutoff low, with current satellite loop showing the center of circulation shifting southeast away from Milford. KICX radar also shows a similar pattern to how precipitation is wrapping/translating along with the low, with coverage highest along and just south/east of the center. The stronger moist flow into the terrain has helped result in some occasional bursts of moderate to even heavy snow at higher elevations, with snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour noted briefly at Clear Creek Summit earlier in the day. Elsewhere across Utah and southwest Wyoming, activity is more scattered in nature, with a slight uptick in showers through the afternoon with the increase in diurnal heating and associated low end destabilization. Activity will gradually decrease from late evening on through the overnight hours as daytime heating ceases, the low begins to advance further out of the region, and dry air and subsidence in turn increase.

A weak transient shortwave ridge will brush through the region Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Warming H7 temperatures will result in a corresponding nudge upward in afternoon temperatures, with high marks forecast to generally be pretty close to climatological normal. As such, generally expecting mid/upper 50s across southwest Wyoming, mid/upper 60s across the Wasatch Front and most other lower elevation valleys, and 70s across far southern Utah.
While the ridge will provide a little boost to subsidence as it builds in, there looks to be just enough forcing/moisture left from the still departing cutoff low to yield isolated terrain initiated shower activity. Per usual, these showers will trend downward in coverage and intensity as heating ceases following sunset. However, the ridge will begin shifting out of the region through the night in advance of another upstream shortwave trough, which will start pushing a cold front southward into northern Utah in the predawn hours Wednesday morning. Will see precip chances increase accordingly as this boundary pushes in.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...On Wednesday, a trough will be making its way across the northern Great Basin, gradually splitting into a weak closed low well to our southwest as the parent trough moves across northern Utah. Despite overall weak dynamics, a band of showers will develop along/just behind the cold front within an area of increased moisture. This band will cross northern Utah during the morning, gradually slowing and weakening as it reaches southern Utah by late evening. Thunderstorms will be possible, especially during the afternoon with daytime heating.

Thursday and Friday will feature afternoon showers and thunderstorms across southern Utah given some influence from the weak closed low as it meanders across the area late in the work week. Drier conditions are expected across northern Utah, with clear skies and warming temperatures.

By Saturday, warm, southerly winds will begin to increase across the entire area ahead of a highly amplified longwave trough along the West Coast. Afternoon convection is looking more likely statewide, given gradually increasing moisture and dynamics. This trough is then likely to close off into a strong closed low over southern CA, though there is still some question as to when and exactly where this low tracks. As this low approaches and crosses our area (or potentially just to our south), strong cold-air advection and widespread valley rain and mountain snow will prevail. As an example, current NBM high temperatures across the area will drop by around 20-25 degrees between Saturday and Sunday, with 700-mb temperatures reaching down to -4C to -8C across southern Utah (-2C to -6C across northern Utah). As for precipitation, there still remains plenty of spread in QPF thanks to uncertainties to the synoptic pattern and moisture availability.

To summarize the weekend system, the main concerns we are watching out for are 1) mountain snow accumulations, 2) southerly winds approaching advisory level on Saturday, and 3) thunderstorm potential, particularly on Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

AVIATION
KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. North-northwesterly winds will persist ahead of a southerly shift around 05z. Around 18z, expect winds to shift to northwesterly once again.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Occasional MVFR CIGs will continue at KBCE through at least 00z with snow showers perhaps reducing vsbys periodically. Additionally, light rain is possible at our southern Utah sites and extreme northern Utah sites through the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the period.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.