Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Salt Lake City, UT
May 18, 2024 3:37 PM MDT (21:37 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:05 AM Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 3:08 PM Moonset 2:46 AM |
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KSLC 182059 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 259 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A spring-like storm Sunday night into Tuesday will bring cooler and wetter conditions. A series of additional weak disturbances is then expected through the remainder of the work week.
SHORT TERM
A mid-level boundary stalled over southern Utah has been slowly lifting into central Utah this afternoon and will continue its northward track into northern Utah and southwest Wyoming by this evening into early overnight. Convection is associated with this boundary, and can easily be identified on satellite imagery stretching from roughly Enterprise to Hanksville as of this writing. CAMs show minimal CAPE but some available shear, while surface analysis reveals dry sub-cloud conditions with dewpoints sitting around 30 degrees. Given these conditions, precipitation is having difficulty reaching the surface, and the primary hazard remains gusty outflow winds, with stronger cells having a 50% chance of lightning as well.
Latest CAMs track this activity (high-based showers and thunderstorms) into the southern and central Wasatch Front between 9pm and midnight, but given the weakening trends expecting this to manifest as increased clouds with virga and a few areas of gusty winds. In terms of gust magnitude, 12Z HRRR members have widespread likely 30+ mph gusts from the west desert between I-80 and US-50 northeastward to the Wasatch Back, but only 20-30% of members showing pockets over 40 mph. Thinking the usual windy and well-sampled west desert locations such as Dugway Proving Ground has the best chance (about 40%) of seeing a gust over 40 mph. These activity will wane overnight but continue to track east of I-15 into the higher terrain.
A 500MB upper-level trough will begin to settle into the Northern Rockies tomorrow, placing our area under increasing southwest flow aloft just ahead of the trough axis. Tomorrow's threat is expected to be confined to areas generally east of I-15 and south of I-80, with drier air aloft somewhat limiting activity given similar instability profiles to today. Nevertheless, increased flow will provide better shear, potentially allowing for convection more capable of small hail. Meanwhile, dropping heights and resulting cooling will put a cap on temperatures versus today, dropping Sunday temperatures a few degrees for most locations and 5-10 degrees from around Salt Lake County northward.
By Sunday night, the aforementioned trough will continue to dig as it drops southward toward the Great Basin, pushing a mid-level cold front across the CWA and setting up a southwest to northeast oriented band of light precipitation, discussed further in the extended discussion below.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Monday)...At the start of the long-term period, a positively tilted trough will be on our doorstep, with its axis draped across western MT down across southern ID and northwestern NV. At the surface however, its associated cold front will be somewhat stationary across roughly from Cedar City up through the Uinta Mtns. Convergence at the surface plus differential heating across the boundary will strengthen the front before it is finally pushed further east on Monday night. Models have trended a bit more moist in the low levels, thus this moisture combined with lift/instability along the boundary and daytime heating will yield the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly along said boundary Monday afternoon. Aside from precipitation, expect breezy westerly winds across far southern/southeast UT ahead of that boundary.
On Tuesday, the cold core aloft will produce enough instability for more showers and thunderstorms, primarily across northeastern portions of the forecast area (i.e. Wasatch Front up to the Cache Valley and across to the Uinta Mtns)
Speaking of cold
snow levels will drop with this system down to around 7000-8000ft, with the Uinta Mtns receiving 4-8 inches in the highest elevations. Across the area, highs will drop to 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Models suggest the upper-level trough will phase with a closed low to our south, likely bringing colder air further south than what we've seen in previous model runs. Thus, even areas like St. George can expect highs down to 10 degrees below normal.
Temperatures will rebound on Wednesday as a shallow shortwave ridge crosses the area. Beyond Wednesday, uncertainty in the upper-level pattern increases. Currently, 87% of ensemble members have some degree of a trough moving through on Thursday and/or Friday. The remaining 13% only favor a weak trough quickly passing through the area. Across southern UT, where a trough passage is less likely, only 30% of ensemble members have an appreciable decrease in temperatures.
AVIATION
KSLC...Light northwest winds will prevail through around 03Z when winds transition to southeast. Scattered to broken clouds will build in from the south by 03Z. Isolated to scattered showers from 03-12Z will be capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds.
Prevailing southeast winds will transition to northwest around 15Z.
Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming
As a weak boundary lifts into northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, clouds will build with isolated to scattered showers capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds.
Showers will reach KPVU around 02Z and KLGU around 05Z. Showers will diminish around 12Z. Gusty southwest winds will diminish by 03Z throughout southern Utah with clearing conditions. West to northwest winds will prevail by 15Z for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah, while southwest winds will prevail for southern Utah.
FIRE WEATHER
A boundary lifting northward this afternoon and evening will bring scattered high-based virga showers and isolated thunderstorms with a low-end potential of gusts up to 40 mph as far north as I-80. Wetting rains are highly unlikely with these storms.
The next storm system will gradually carve into the area tomorrow through the early part of next week. An associated cold front will cross Utah tomorrow into Monday, bringing cooler temperatures and increased humidities to much of the area through at least Tuesday. Wetting rain potential will be highest (around 70 percent) over the higher terrain in northern Utah from the central/southern Wasatch northeastward to the Uintas, with snow levels dropping near 8000 feet. A partial break in the weather is possible on Wednesday, with the next storm system potentially arriving during the latter half of the week. Elevated transport winds and modest mixing will support good to excellent afternoon clearing indicies each day. The unsettled conditions will also bring elevated afternoon surface winds, particularly east of I-15 and south of US-6.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 259 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A spring-like storm Sunday night into Tuesday will bring cooler and wetter conditions. A series of additional weak disturbances is then expected through the remainder of the work week.
SHORT TERM
A mid-level boundary stalled over southern Utah has been slowly lifting into central Utah this afternoon and will continue its northward track into northern Utah and southwest Wyoming by this evening into early overnight. Convection is associated with this boundary, and can easily be identified on satellite imagery stretching from roughly Enterprise to Hanksville as of this writing. CAMs show minimal CAPE but some available shear, while surface analysis reveals dry sub-cloud conditions with dewpoints sitting around 30 degrees. Given these conditions, precipitation is having difficulty reaching the surface, and the primary hazard remains gusty outflow winds, with stronger cells having a 50% chance of lightning as well.
Latest CAMs track this activity (high-based showers and thunderstorms) into the southern and central Wasatch Front between 9pm and midnight, but given the weakening trends expecting this to manifest as increased clouds with virga and a few areas of gusty winds. In terms of gust magnitude, 12Z HRRR members have widespread likely 30+ mph gusts from the west desert between I-80 and US-50 northeastward to the Wasatch Back, but only 20-30% of members showing pockets over 40 mph. Thinking the usual windy and well-sampled west desert locations such as Dugway Proving Ground has the best chance (about 40%) of seeing a gust over 40 mph. These activity will wane overnight but continue to track east of I-15 into the higher terrain.
A 500MB upper-level trough will begin to settle into the Northern Rockies tomorrow, placing our area under increasing southwest flow aloft just ahead of the trough axis. Tomorrow's threat is expected to be confined to areas generally east of I-15 and south of I-80, with drier air aloft somewhat limiting activity given similar instability profiles to today. Nevertheless, increased flow will provide better shear, potentially allowing for convection more capable of small hail. Meanwhile, dropping heights and resulting cooling will put a cap on temperatures versus today, dropping Sunday temperatures a few degrees for most locations and 5-10 degrees from around Salt Lake County northward.
By Sunday night, the aforementioned trough will continue to dig as it drops southward toward the Great Basin, pushing a mid-level cold front across the CWA and setting up a southwest to northeast oriented band of light precipitation, discussed further in the extended discussion below.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Monday)...At the start of the long-term period, a positively tilted trough will be on our doorstep, with its axis draped across western MT down across southern ID and northwestern NV. At the surface however, its associated cold front will be somewhat stationary across roughly from Cedar City up through the Uinta Mtns. Convergence at the surface plus differential heating across the boundary will strengthen the front before it is finally pushed further east on Monday night. Models have trended a bit more moist in the low levels, thus this moisture combined with lift/instability along the boundary and daytime heating will yield the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly along said boundary Monday afternoon. Aside from precipitation, expect breezy westerly winds across far southern/southeast UT ahead of that boundary.
On Tuesday, the cold core aloft will produce enough instability for more showers and thunderstorms, primarily across northeastern portions of the forecast area (i.e. Wasatch Front up to the Cache Valley and across to the Uinta Mtns)
Speaking of cold
snow levels will drop with this system down to around 7000-8000ft, with the Uinta Mtns receiving 4-8 inches in the highest elevations. Across the area, highs will drop to 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Models suggest the upper-level trough will phase with a closed low to our south, likely bringing colder air further south than what we've seen in previous model runs. Thus, even areas like St. George can expect highs down to 10 degrees below normal.
Temperatures will rebound on Wednesday as a shallow shortwave ridge crosses the area. Beyond Wednesday, uncertainty in the upper-level pattern increases. Currently, 87% of ensemble members have some degree of a trough moving through on Thursday and/or Friday. The remaining 13% only favor a weak trough quickly passing through the area. Across southern UT, where a trough passage is less likely, only 30% of ensemble members have an appreciable decrease in temperatures.
AVIATION
KSLC...Light northwest winds will prevail through around 03Z when winds transition to southeast. Scattered to broken clouds will build in from the south by 03Z. Isolated to scattered showers from 03-12Z will be capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds.
Prevailing southeast winds will transition to northwest around 15Z.
Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming
As a weak boundary lifts into northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, clouds will build with isolated to scattered showers capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds.
Showers will reach KPVU around 02Z and KLGU around 05Z. Showers will diminish around 12Z. Gusty southwest winds will diminish by 03Z throughout southern Utah with clearing conditions. West to northwest winds will prevail by 15Z for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah, while southwest winds will prevail for southern Utah.
FIRE WEATHER
A boundary lifting northward this afternoon and evening will bring scattered high-based virga showers and isolated thunderstorms with a low-end potential of gusts up to 40 mph as far north as I-80. Wetting rains are highly unlikely with these storms.
The next storm system will gradually carve into the area tomorrow through the early part of next week. An associated cold front will cross Utah tomorrow into Monday, bringing cooler temperatures and increased humidities to much of the area through at least Tuesday. Wetting rain potential will be highest (around 70 percent) over the higher terrain in northern Utah from the central/southern Wasatch northeastward to the Uintas, with snow levels dropping near 8000 feet. A partial break in the weather is possible on Wednesday, with the next storm system potentially arriving during the latter half of the week. Elevated transport winds and modest mixing will support good to excellent afternoon clearing indicies each day. The unsettled conditions will also bring elevated afternoon surface winds, particularly east of I-15 and south of US-6.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSLC SALT LAKE CITY INTL,UT | 3 sm | 43 min | var 06 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 75°F | 28°F | 18% | 29.93 | |
| KHIF HILL AFB,UT | 24 sm | 42 min | WSW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 25°F | 17% | 29.94 |
Salt Lake City, UT,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE