Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bayview, CA

DISCUSSION
The area of low pressure off the coast has moved to the south and winds and rain showers have ramped down. A few light showers may continue through the night, with the highest chances in Trinity, eastern Mendocino, and Lake Counties. Interior valleys may see fog form tonight with ample moisture. Wrap-around moisture could support an isolated rain shower or two this afternoon, with the highest chances in Lake and eastern Mendocino counties. Otherwise, a brief drying trend is likely for most of the area. A chilly night is possible Friday night into Saturday morning, with temperatures dropping into the 30s to low 40s. NBM shows high chances for temperatures less than 36 degrees in Trinity County and around Covelo. However, ample moisture from recent rains may support valley fog and could keep temperatures high enough to prevent frost.

Saturday evening into Sunday, the low pressure system moves onshore in southern California and moves northeast. These will mainly be light to moderate rain showers with the highest chances in Lake and southern Mendocino counties. If you're outside these areas and are feeling left out, don't worry! Another frontal system is likely to arrive from the northwest Sunday, returning rain across the area. Confidence is low on how much rain we will receive, mostly due to uncertainties with how these two low pressures will interact. The NBM 25th percentile (the low end) shows a broad 0.25-0.50 inch across the area, while the NBM 75th percentile (high end) shows 1.00-1.25 inches across the area. Breezy south winds are likely, with gusts of 20-30 mph possible along the Humboldt and Del Norte coasts. Locally higher winds are possible on ridges and coastal headlands.

The upper-level trough behind the front will bring a much colder airmass. Widespread frost and possibly freezing temperatures are possible Monday night and Tuesday night. NBM shows moderate to high probabilities for temperatures below 36 in Trinity, eastern Mendocino, interior Humboldt, and Lake county. There are over 50% probabilities for freezing temperatures in the coldest valleys of Trinity and Mendocino. High temperatures will also be cooler, with even the warmest valleys struggling to reach 60.

Ensembles are fairly confident in an additional storm arriving late next week. Deterministic models show this taking a very similar path to the one over the last few days, however there is significant variability in ensembles this far out. JB



AVIATION
VFR conditions expected to prevail at coastal forecast terminals (KACV and KCEC) through the period. MVFR cigs and ocnl MVFR vsby are forecast for KUKI through 12Z-14Z Fri.
Cloud cover should counteract the longwave cooling and winds aloft will create sufficient mixing to mitigate the risk for fog in the interior valleys. If winds go calm and skies clear briefly around KUKI, LIFR in fog will be possible. SE winds aloft from 30-40kt above 1500 to 2000 AGL will continue to pose a risk for low level wind shear or severe turbulence for coastal aerodromes, particularly at KACV and KCEC til 14Z-18Z Fri.



MARINE
Very steep combined seas continue Thu night due to large west swell and steeper shorter period waves. Models continue to diverge on a track and rate of decay of an offshore low centered over the outer waters on Fri. Consensus is for the low to slowly fill on Fri and either meanders southward and dissipate through the day or slowly burrow eastward toward the North Coast and filling.
Either way winds should ease up in comparison to the last day or two. By Friday evening, winds and steep seas are forecast to ease up and subside into Sat morning. Calmer conditions expected Fri night and Sat, though northerly winds ramp up a bit in the lee of Cape Mendo with localized gusts to 30 kt by afternoon. Next frontal system rapidly approaches on Sunday and should blow through quickly with perhaps a brief spat of gale force gusts to 40 kt. Considerable variability on the rate of progression and strength of the N-NW behind the front. Some models indicate NW gale gusts following quickly behind the boundary while others indicate the low stalling offshore with light and squirrelly winds. By Tue, consensus is for northerlies to return before another potentially deep and power low approaches Wed and Thu. This next storm could stay well offshore leaving the waters in a relatively light wind field or it could come barreling through Wed into Thu bringing another chance for gales.

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ450.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 3 AM PST early this morning for PZZ455-475.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PST early this morning for PZZ470.