Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
West Hampton Dunes, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:27PM Monday July 6, 2020 5:55 AM EDT (09:55 UTC) Moonrise 9:56PMMoonset 6:38AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 417 Am Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Today..W winds around 5 kt, becoming ne late this morning, then becoming se this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms this afternoon, mainly late.
Tonight..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms this evening.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 417 Am Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak surface low pressure trough will persist nearby today, before a back door cold front moves across from the east. This front will lift back into the waters on Tuesday, and pass north by Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure will then briefly build in through Thursday. Low pressure will then approach from the south on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Hampton Dunes, NY
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location: 40.78, -72.69     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 060843 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 443 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak low pressure trough will persist over the area today, with a back door cold front passing through from the northeast this afternoon. The front will return northward as a warm front on Tuesday, and pass north by Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure will then briefly build in through Thursday. Low pressure will then approach from the south Friday into Saturday, followed by a series of weak fronts moving through the area late this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As weak low pressure moves E of New England, a back door cold front in its wake will approach from the NE. Before the front passes through, temps should rise to the lower 90s in NYC and NE NJ, and to the mid/upper 80s elsewhere away from most south facing shorelines, with a window of opportunity this afternoon for showers/tstms to develop, as a shortwave trough over S Ontario embedded in NW flow aloft arrives and provides lift. Per 00Z CAM guidance, tstms are most likely this afternoon from NNJ and the NYC metro area and points south/west, with lesser chances farther north into the lower Hudson Valley and southern CT. Combo of MLCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg and undirectional 0-6 km NW bulk shear of about 35-40 kt suggest multicell organization possible, and steep low level lapse rates/relatively dry mid levels could lead to damaging wind gusts and some hail with the strongest cells.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Chances for showers/tstms should quickly wane this evening via increased stability in the low level air mass behind the back door front as high pressure builds down the New England coast, with mainly dry conditions for late evening/overnight if not sooner. Lows tonight will range from the lower 70s invof NYC, to the mid 60s well inland.

The back door front is expected to return north as a warm front on Tue, slowly through the area into Tue evening. With additional mid level shortwave energy passing across, showers/tstms once again possible, more so across western sections which will be back in the warm sector in the afternoon. Highs will range from the mid 80s from NYC north/west, to the upper 70s/lower 80s for Long Island and southern CT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. The region will lie on the northern edge of broad CONUS ridging through the week. This will be a dirty ridge though, with a weak closed low over the Mississippi River Valley early in the week slowly shearing/lifting toward the area to end the week. Thereafter, models with better agreement of amplifying northern stream troughing approaching/entering the area this weekend, and likely remaining over the area through at least early next week. Before then, a midweek northern stream shortwave moving through S Canada may buckle the ridge enough to provide a trigger for afternoon diurnal convection, particularly Wed.

The warm front is expected to be north of the area by early Wednesday morning, with some indication of an earlier mentioned very weak shortwave/buckling of trough moving through aloft. This may present a trigger for late afternoon/early eve isolated to scattered convection Wed, although the focus is a bit more vague at this point and (higher terrain, perhaps sea breeze boundary). This warm frontal passage and SW flow will have widespread high temps climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with widespread heat indices in mid to upper 90s degrees as dewpoints climb into the lower 70s.

Heights continue to build on Thursday, but progress of the earlier mentioned shearing southern closed low will have to be monitored as it potentially starts lifting towards the Mid-Atlantic. Quite a bit of model spread on the evolution of this feature and its associated surface wave/low. At this time this feature appears to be far enough SW/S of the region on Thursday, for another hot and humid day. Although a backing wind flow may keep coastal areas a bit cooler than Wed. Only a conditional potential for some isolated convection off terrain and seabreeze boundaries in a likely unstable, but capped and weakly shear environment. If flow remains from the S/SW widespread temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s likely for Thursday with heat indices of 95-100 possible.

Forecast details become less certain Friday into the weekend, dependent on the evolution of the southern low as it lifts/shears up the coast, but confidence is increasing in a northern stream trough amplifying down through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and then to the East Coast during this time.

Considerable model spread exists on the southern low tracking up the coast as early as Friday or as late as Saturday Night, as well as whether it track up the coastal plain or offshore, as well as degree of intensification, and whether it acquires any tropical characteristics. NHC is monitoring the southern system for potential tropical or subtropical development this week, giving it a 30% chance over the next 5 days as it potentially emerges off the Carolina coast. Main threat with this low at this point would be a swath of heavy rainfall along its path as it taps into Gulf and subtropical Atlantic moisture, but low confidence on any details.

Better agreement that mean troughing will be sliding towards the east coast through the weekend, with a series of surface troughs moving through the area. Depending on timing of the southern wave, very warm and humid conditions are likely for the weekend, with threat of afternoon convection both days. Each successive trough Sunday into early next week, appears to bring in slightly cooler and drier airmass, but low predictability at this point.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A weak cold front slowly drops south, eventually passing through the terminals toward daybreak Today.

VFR. Variable to light WNW winds overnight give way to late morning/early afternoon sea breezes again on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon/evening, mainly late in the afternoon. Any storms may briefly reduce conditions to sub-VFR.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Monday night through Thursday. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly from the NYC metros north/west. Friday. Rain with sub-VFR more likely. Chc E-SE gusts 20-25kt.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions expected through mid week. Potential for SCA seas Friday into the weekend with a persistent S/SW flow and strengthening wind fields with a potential coastal low.

HYDROLOGY. Conditional and localized flash flood threat on Tuesday for far SW portions of the Tri-State, if a warm front nears or works into the region and interacts with a building moist and unstable airmass.

A localized urban and poor drainage flooding threat exists with any isolated thunderstorm activity Wed and Thu, as it will be slow moving and able to tap into a very moist environment.

There is potential for more widespread downpour/thunderstorm activity and resultant urban and poor drainage flooding threat during the Friday/Saturday period, but low confidence on details at this timeframe. More details as the week progresses.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of a SE swell and high astronomical tides (full moon) will have water levels approach minor flood thresholds once again tonight, but they are expected to remain just below minor flood benchmarks.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 35 mi35 min W 5.8 G 7.8 72°F 72°F1015.1 hPa71°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi61 min Calm G 1.9 73°F 71°F1014.2 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 38 mi61 min N 1.9 G 2.9 73°F 69°F1014.4 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 43 mi61 min 71°F 69°F1014.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi35 min WSW 9.7 G 14 76°F 76°F1014.7 hPa74°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 49 mi70 min W 1.9 G 3.9 73°F 1 ft70°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY5 mi2 hrsNW 37.00 miA Few Clouds69°F69°F100%1014.8 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY9 mi2 hrsN 37.00 miFair73°F70°F90%1014.2 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY22 mi2 hrsN 08.00 miFair73°F73°F100%1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3SW3S3S8SW6SW10SW9S7SW9SW10SW10--SW10S8SW7SW4S4S4SW5--SW5SW54NW3
1 day agoN4N6N7N7N6N8N8NE114N5E7SE7E6SE5S6S3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmS3S6SW3
2 days agoNW6N7N8N6N6N6NW5NW5N5SE8SE8SE6----E6E6NE3NE4N4N6N4--NE7N5

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:51 AM EDT     -1.87 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:53 AM EDT     1.34 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:45 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:01 PM EDT     -1.63 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT     1.75 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:21 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.2-1.7-1.9-1.6-1.2-0.40.61.21.31.20.6-0.2-0.9-1.4-1.6-1.4-1-0.30.71.51.71.61.20.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.