Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Hampton Dunes, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:11PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 8:54 AM EDT (12:54 UTC) Moonrise 8:00PMMoonset 9:32AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 735 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through Thursday afternoon...
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain early this afternoon. Rain with isolated tstms late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 735 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A strong frontal system will approach today as a low pressure develops just off the mid atlantic coast. This low will track just off long island tonight and continue northeast of the waters on Thursday while strengthening. Meanwhile, high pressure will build to the west and move over the region Friday, remaining through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Hampton Dunes, NY
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location: 40.78, -72.69     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 161228 cca
afdokx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service new york ny
828 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
A strong frontal system will approach today as a low pressure
develops just off the mid atlantic coast. This low will track
just off long island tonight and continue northeast Thursday.

Meanwhile, high pressure will build to the west and move over
the region Friday, remaining through the weekend. Another
frontal system affects the region Sunday night through Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
Made some adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints to better
match observed trends. Pops start time for rain changed slightly
as well. First chances of rain for northeast nj and the lower
hudson valley appear after 11am. Otherwise, rest of forecast
same as before.

Today will start out quiet before quickly deteriorating as an
amplifying northern stream trough interacts with southern stream
energy. This will cause rapid development of low pressure along
the mid-atlantic coast. Strong upper dynamics aided by the
negatively tilted trough, upper jet exit and entrance regions
and thermal forcing will result in the potential for several
inches of rainfall as the secondary low develops. Widespread
moderate to locally heavy rain will produce a general 1 to 3
inches, with the potential for higher amounts in any
convectively enhanced bands. Much of this rain will fall in a 6
to 9 hour period from late afternoon early evening to around
midnight. If higher amounts materialize, there could be
localized flooding, however the probability remains low with the
exception for NE nj where a flash flood watch remains in effect
based on 6 hour gridded ffg.

Ahead of the low, a period of E SE winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up
to 30 mph are likely. Then as the secondary low deepens, the
pressure gradient between the two systems will result in stronger
northwest winds developing overnight especially across the coast.

After collaboration with neighboring offices, have issued a wind
advisory for eastern suffolk county and southern new london
beginning tonight just ahead of the low where winds will be
strongest.

Highs will be in the 60s today and in the upper 40s to 50 degrees
tonight.

Short term Thursday
As the low pulls away into maine on Thursday, strong cyclonic flow
and cold pool instability could result in a few showers lingering
through the afternoon and a mostly cloudy sky.

Strong, gusty winds will prevail on Thursday and it is possible that
wind headlines may be needed with later forecasts. Strongest
winds will be across the far eastern zones where the best mixing
and low level winds will be.

High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 50s to around 60.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Upper level low will be northeast of the region for Thursday
night. The upper level jet streak SW to NE will be located from
southeast us to nova scotia.

Expecting rising heights thereafter through Saturday as upper
level low moves farther away into the canadian maritimes and an
upper level ridge moves in from the west for the local region.

The upper level ridge axis moves east of the region Saturday night
and will then begin getting amplified Sunday into early next week
along the eastern seaboard. The next jet streak moves in towards
the middle of next week.

At the surface, the surface low will move into the canadian
maritimes while weakening for Thursday night into Friday. High
pressure then builds in from the west for much of the upcoming
weekend. High pressure will be moving offshore Saturday night
into Sunday and will be slow to move eastward. High pressure
gets reinforced offshore for early next week. The next storm
system approaching from the west will start to move in by Monday
night and continue moving in through Tuesday.

No significant changes were made compared to the last long term
forecast. 12z to 00z model trends comparing the ecmwf, gfs, and
canadian trended a little slower with the next low pressure
system and its associated rain for early next week. The timing
of the next system seems to be more focused in the Tuesday into
Tuesday night timeframe so increased pops to better reflect that
model consensus.

Temperatures forecast trend warmer from Friday into the weekend.

Below normal high temperatures forecast for Friday (mid 50s to
near 60), near normal highs for Saturday (mainly lower 60s) and
above normal for highs on Sunday (mid to upper 60s). Then,
slightly warmer highs for forecast for early next week compared
to Sunday.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
***high impact rain and wind event from late this afternoon into
Thursday***
high pressure will build offshore today as intensifying low
pressure approaches the west. The low will move across tonight.

Clouds will gradually lower and thicken through the day
today. Some MVFR CIGS could precede the rain during the morning
and early afternoon at the nyc metros, then rain and MVFR ifr
conditions should quickly develop after 18z. Rain will be heavy
at times. Rain tapers off after 4-6z but MVFR CIGS around 3000
ft may remain through the remainder of the TAF period.

Se winds will increase today, with gusts at or above 30 kt
likely by late evening tonight. Direction will vary as the low
tracks over and through the area. Winds become westerly behind
the system late tonight, and remain so through thu.

Outlook for 12z Thursday through Sunday
Thursday Possible MVFR with showers. W winds g30-40kt.

Friday Vfr. NW winds g20-25kt.

Saturday Vfr.

Sunday Vfr.

Marine
A strong system will approach the waters on Wednesday with a coastal
low developing across the waters late in the afternoon early
evening. This will bring SCA conditions to the area during the day
on Wednesday with SE gusts 25-30 kt. As the low pulls away Wednesday
night and Thursday westerly gales will bring gusts up to 40 kt.

A gale warning continues Thursday for all waters. Gale force gusts
may continue into Thursday evening on the non ocean waters and into
late Thursday night on ocean waters. With some uncertainty regarding
the diminishing time of the gusts, the gale warning has not been
extended at this time.

Sca wind gusts still forecast to continue through Friday and
into Friday night, mainly for the ocean. Ocean seas are also
expected to be below SCA levels by Friday night. Non-ocean
Friday night expected to remain below sca.

Tranquil conditions forecast for the waters for the weekend into
the beginning of next week.

Hydrology
A significant rainfall of 1-3 inches is likely Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night, with localized swaths of 2-4 inches possible.

The bulk of the rainfall is expected in a 6-9 hr period late
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

Urban, poor drainage, and low lying flooding is expected. There is a
low probability of flash flooding along a few of the fast responding
small rivers and streams in NE nj and the lower hudson valley if the
higher rainfall amounts are realized.

Additionally, localized flash flooding will also be an issue for
coastal roads if heaviest rain coincides with the Wed night high
tides.

Tides coastal flooding
The SE fetch across the waters will enable for piling of water
today into tonight. The winds increase today into tonight and
eventually become more westerly late tonight.

Highest astronomical tide is this morning. Some isolated minor
coastal flooding will be possible across the south shore back bays
and western long island sound along the westchester and sw
connecticut shorelines. Water levels this morning are about 1.5
to 2 ft above astronomical. Coastal flood statement issued as a
result.

High tide cycles are between 9am and 12pm across the south shore
back bays and between 12pm and 3pm across the western long island
sound.

For tonight, astronomical tide is lower. However, the surge will be
quite more than this morning so the water levels are expected to be
about 2.5 to 3 ft above astronomical, allowing for widespread minor
coastal flooding for much of long island shorelines as well as
westchester shoreline and SW connecticut shorelines along the
western long island sound. Coastal flood advisories were issued as
a result. Other coastal areas are expected to just touch minor
coastal flood benchmarks and will be more isolated where coastal
flood statements were issued. Battery ny expected to stay below
minor coastal flood benchmark.

High tide cycles tonight run between 9pm to 12am for south shore
bays, and around 11pm to 3am for western LI sound, long island
shorelines, and SE connecticut.

Additionally, if the heaviest rain coincides with the high tide
tonight, more widespread flooding could be experienced than would
normally be expected.

With gusty westerly and mainly offshore flow on Thursday, for the
next high tide cycle for Thursday morning, no coastal flooding is
expected.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off the
air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Coastal flood advisory from midnight tonight to 4 am edt
Thursday for ctz009-010.

Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Thursday for
ctz012.

Ny... Coastal flood advisory from midnight tonight to 4 am edt
Thursday for nyz071.

Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 am edt
Thursday for nyz078>081.

Coastal flood advisory from 9 pm this evening to 1 am edt
Thursday for nyz178-179.

Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Thursday for
nyz079-081.

Nj... Flash flood watch from 4 pm edt this afternoon through late
tonight for njz002-004-006-103>108.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Thursday for
anz330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Synopsis... Cb
near term... CB jm
short term... Cb
long term... CB jm
aviation...

marine... CB met
hydrology... CB met dw
tides coastal flooding... Jm
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 22 mi70 min ESE 12 G 16 60°F 59°F50°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi61 min ENE 6 G 7 45°F 61°F1015.4 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 38 mi61 min N 5.1 G 6 47°F 63°F1015 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 43 mi61 min 58°F 62°F1016.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 44 mi65 min ESE 16 G 19 62°F 63°F3 ft1014.6 hPa (-2.0)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 49 mi70 min SE 14 G 18 58°F 1 ft49°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 49 mi40 min SE 13 G 16 58°F 997.8 hPa50°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY5 mi62 minESE 410.00 miFair43°F39°F89%1016.3 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY9 mi2 hrsE 310.00 miFair40°F37°F93%1016.6 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY22 mi2 hrsESE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy46°F44°F93%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N9N8N10
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N8NW7NW6W5NW5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4
1 day agoCalmCalmNW3S3S4S7SW6SW9S8S4SW4SW4SW7SW5CalmN4N6N7N7N6N7CalmCalmN3
2 days agoN11N9N8NW8N7W7N5Calm3SW3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:32 AM EDT     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:29 AM EDT     1.53 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:00 PM EDT     -1.65 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:36 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:55 PM EDT     1.22 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-1.1-1.5-1.5-1.1-0.50.10.91.51.51.20.6-0.2-1-1.5-1.6-1.4-0.9-0.40.311.210.7

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.