Sunrise 5:29 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 2:25 PM   Moonset 2:49 AM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 556 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Today - NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E late. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy drizzle early this morning. Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 556 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Weak high pressure builds in from northern new england through tonight. High pressure generally remains in control through the middle of next week, gradually giving way to an approaching cold front.

FXUS61 KOKX 171147 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 747 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure builds in from Northern New England through tonight. High pressure generally remains in control through the middle of next week, gradually giving way to an approaching cold front.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Low pressure offshore gradually moves away from the area today.
Brisk onshore northeasterly flow is allowing for continued low stratus to linger along the coast and push inland. Additionally coastal areas, mainly Long Island and extreme coastal southern Connecticut, are seeing waves of low level moisture being advected onshore in the form of patchy drizzle. This moisture should gradually diminish as the boundary layer dries a bit from daytime heating, but patchy drizzle and mist will remain possible through the early morning hours.

Shortwave ridging over the area allows a weak surface high pressure to build into the area from Northern New England through the day. This will promote a drying of the column, though a continued onshore northeast flow will likely allow cloud cover to persist much of the day. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the low to middle 70s.

Cloud cover and dry conditions will persist tonight as high pressure continues to allow for a northeast flow, though it will be weakening. Lows tonight will be in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Weak high pressure looks to remain in control on Saturday with a weakening frontal system approaching from the west. As the cold front approaches during the day, some widely scattered rain showers will be possible for extreme western portions of the area. Much of the energy associated with the shortwave trough and frontal system looks to consolidate in a low pressure system that develops well south of the area over the Southeast US and Carolina Coast into Saturday night and Sunday.

The high pressure remains in control through the weekend with the low passing far enough to the south as to not have much of, if any, impact to the area. More pronounced mid-level ridging approaches the area from the west Sunday and into Sunday night, which strengthens the surface high pressure over the area. This should allow for further drying and a reduction in cloud cover through the weekend.

A persistent E/NE flow through the weekend will prevent temperatures from rising too much. Highs Saturday will be in the middle to upper 60s with highs Sunday warming up a bit into the middle 60s to middle 70s. Lows each night will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
*Key Points*

*Mainly dry and above normal for the period.

*Late week cold frontal passage, preceded by showers and thunderstorms.

A relatively quiet period is expected with ridging both aloft and at the surface to start the week. It will also be warm, especially away from the immediate coast where an onshore flow will keep it closer to normal. The warmest day will likely be Thursday ahead of the cold front, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The potential is there for larger departures.

A southern branch upper trough lifts NE out of the Great Basin early next week, interacting with some northern branch short wave energy.
There are some timing issues with the associated frontal system due to this interaction. A cold frontal passage is expected sometime Thursday, preceded by a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Primarily followed the NBM, but 00Z global models so some slowing of the system and tried to reflect that trend. While there is also a chance of convection Wednesday, the better chance looks to be Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Low pressure becomes nearly stationary well southeast of the area, while high pressure builds along the New England coast.

MVFR ceilings are still possible at the NYC terminals through about 13Z, otherwise it will be VFR today. MVFR ceilings will return late tonight, first across the eastern terminals during the early morning hours, and then around 14-15Z Saturday for the NYC and Lower Hudson terminals. Timing will likely need to be refined.

N-NE winds 10-15kt, occasional G15-20kt at the coastal terminals this morning. KGON could see those gusts linger into the first half of the afternoon. Winds likely veer to the E/SE at 10 kt or less in the afternoon as the surface ridge axis builds into the area. Wind become light and variable tonight and then NE around 5 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few gusts 15-20 kt this morning. Winds could become more southerly this afternoon than forecast.

There is some uncertainty with timing the return of MVFR ceilings on Saturday. It is possible for an earlier arrival.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: MVFR likely. Slight chance of showers, mainly N and W of the city terminals. Patchy light rain and/or drizzle possible as well.

Sunday...Chance of MVFR in the morning, then VFR. MVFR or lower could persist at the eastern terminals.

Monday-Tuesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA conditions continue on the ocean waters as waves will remain at or above 5 feet through the day. Waves gradually diminish below SCA thresholds this evening for the western ocean zone though the central and eastern ocean zones will take more time to drop below SCA threshold. All waters drop below SCA conditions by Saturday and remain below through the middle of next week as high pressure remains in control.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic issues through the end of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.

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Moriches Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
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Fri -- 02:27 AM EDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:24 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:47 AM EDT     -1.28 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:12 PM EDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:03 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:14 PM EDT     -1.21 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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