Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Center Moriches, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:25PM Sunday December 8, 2019 12:44 AM EST (05:44 UTC) Moonrise 3:33PMMoonset 4:07AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 950 Pm Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to around 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Rain, mainly in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely with chance of snow in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 950 Pm Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will settle over the area tonight, then pass east on Sunday. A warm front will approach on Monday and lift north Monday night. A cold front will approach on Tuesday and pass east Tuesday night into Wednesday. Arctic high pressure will then follow later in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Center Moriches, NY
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location: 40.78, -72.78     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 080244 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 944 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will settle over the area tonight, then pass east on Sunday. A warm front will approach on Monday and lift north Monday night. A cold front will approach on Tuesday and pass east Tuesday night into Wednesday. Arctic high pressure will then follow later in the week. Another storm system may impact the area next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. Forecast temperatures remain on track.

Weak upper ridging continues to build towards the region overnight. Plenty of subsidence will allow for general clear skies.

Potential for strong radiational cooling conditions with high pressure overhead. Late night lows (once winds lighten) well down into the lower teens across interior, particularly where snowpack lingers, as well as pine barrens of LI. Otherwise, lows generally in the upper teens to lower 20s coast, mid 20's city.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/. Weak shortwave ridging moves over and east of the region Sunday, with deep SW flow developing Sunday Night into Monday ahead of a developing large central CONUS trough.

At the surface, high pressure slides offshore Sunday, with developing return flow Sunday Night. Another dry day on Sunday, with increasing high clouds filtering in with SW aloft flow. Highs generally upper 30s to lower 40s, but still a few degrees below seasonable.

Thickening and lowering high and mid clouds Sunday Night and increasing SSE flow. Potential for stratus and light shower activity developing overnight into early Monday morning. Temps remain fairly stable or rise along the coast Sunday night in response.

Developing low pressure across the Central Plains Sunday Night, will lift NE into the Great Lakes Monday. Meanwhile a weak wave of low pressure off the SE US coast, lifts north up the coast in between departing high and approaching frontal system. This feature then moves over or just SE of LI on Monday. Deep layered lift (left front of 150+ kt ulj and nose of developing 50-60kt llj) and convergence of a sub-tropical PAC and Atlantic moisture feed (+2-3 std PWATs and elevated weak instability) will present potential for period of moderate to heavy rain, with embedded thunder, Monday morning into afternoon. Some spread in exact track of the wave, lending to uncertainty in how far west this heavy activity gets, with highest likelihood across LI and CT. A swath of 1/2 to 1 inches of rain possible in 6 hr period with this activity. In addition, potential for 20 to 30 mph sustained and gusts to 40 mph for LI and SE CT Monday afternoon if LLJ tracks overhead.

This wave and its trailing trough, with axis of heavy rain, move east Monday evening, but still bands of shower activity expected to linger into Tuesday Night ahead of next shortwave and pre- frontal trough.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. With digging large upper trough, passing shortwave, upper and lower jet energy aiding lift, rain initially will be heavy, then taper off to light rain, and even scatter as coverage lowers late at night into Tuesday morning. The area will be warm sectored during that time, and lowering of Pops has been captured in database. Will ramp up Pops once again as the cold front approaches Tuesday afternoon. Looks like the GFS is a quicker outlier with frontal movement east.

As another shortwave rotates around the back side of the upper trough in central Canada, there are indications that rain moves just east, with additional rain/precip shield tracking northeast on the back side of the front Tuesday night into Wednesday due to upper level support. Assuming that does indeed occur, colder air will move in behind the front which will result in a transition from rain to snow, mix in between. This could result in light snow accumulations later Tuesday night into Wednesday, NW to SE.

The upper trough weakens as it pivots east, and sfc high pressure builds in from the west late Wed, Wed night and Thursday. This will be the period of dry, but cold weather. Could be looking at the coldest air of the season, with temps struggling to reach or exceed freezing Thursday after a cold start to the day.

Shortwave ridging moves east Thu night, with sfc high moving north and east of the area. Easterly flow then sets up, with dry conditions likely lingering into Friday. Thereafter, model spread grows, with latest run of the operational GFS quicker with southern shortwave's movement east, which steers a sfc low out of the Gulf of Mexico and off the SE coast later Friday and Friday night, whereas Canadian and ECMWF are much slower with these features. Eventually, precip should move back in from the south by Saturday, but big difference in the upper level pattern are noted in the global models, with GFS phased with northern stream shortwave and southern stream. Canadian and ECMWF look much different (lack of phasing between the two), so plenty of time to iron out these details as the event draws near.

Mild temperatures Monday night into Tuesday, well above normal, fall below normal Wednesday night through Thursday night. Temps will moderate late in the week, and a model blend followed which is close to WPC numbers.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR. High pressure settles over the terminals through tonight, then passes offshore on Sunday.

NW should diminish over the next few hours to below 10 kt and then become light and variable overnight. Light flow Sunday morning becomes S-SE and increases to around 10 kt late morning and early afternoon. Wind gusts then increase late in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Sunday Afternoon. VFR. Sunday night. MVFR developing late with chance of rain. Monday. Rain becoming widespread. S G20-25kt, mainly at the coastal terminals, with a chance of LLWS Monday into Monday night. Slight chance thunder Monday afternoon. Tuesday. MVFR or lower in showers, possibly ending as a period of snow late at night. SW gusts around 20 kt possible. Wednesday. Chance of rain or snow and MVFR in the morning. W-NW G20-25kt possible. Thursday. VFR.

MARINE. Sub SCA conditions tonight through Sunday as high pressure moves across the waters. A strengthening southerly flow may bring marginal SCA conditions to the ocean waters Sunday night, with higher likelihood for a period of SCA for all waters Monday afternoon/evening, and potentially a period of gales for ocean waters and eastern LI Sound and bays. Seas should build to 8 to 12 ft by late Monday as well.

Southerly winds will approach gale force Monday night over the ocean waters, with solid SCA conditions elsewhere. These winds diminish as a cold front approaches Tuesday. The winds shift to the west/NW behind the front Tuesday night and Wednesday, remaining gusty through Thursday as high pressure approaches from the west.

Rough seas will slowly subside through the mid week period.

HYDROLOGY. A significant long duration rainfall event is expected from late Sunday night into Wed. Event total QPF likely to range from 1.5-3.0 inches.

Heaviest rain will be Monday into Monday night, with 1 to 2 inches of rain likely during this period. The long duration of the event should preclude widespread flooding. Nuisance/poor drainage flooding is the most likely outcome.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . NV/PW NEAR TERM . NV/PW SHORT TERM . DJ/16 LONG TERM . PW AVIATION . DJ/16 MARINE . NV/PW HYDROLOGY . NV/PW EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 17 mi45 min N 7.8 G 7.8 31°F 38°F20°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 35 mi69 min N 1.9 G 2.9 27°F 45°F1033 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi63 min NNE 1 G 7 28°F 41°F1032.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 42 mi55 min N 12 G 16 36°F 51°F3 ft1032.9 hPa (+1.4)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 44 mi60 min N 7.8 G 12 32°F 16°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 47 mi63 min 30°F 44°F1032.7 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY5 mi1.8 hrsN 010.00 miFair25°F16°F69%1033 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY9 mi52 minNNW 410.00 miFair20°F12°F71%1033.6 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi1.8 hrsN 310.00 miFair28°F17°F63%1032.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:07 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:50 AM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:03 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:31 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:10 PM EST     2.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:04 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.92.42.82.82.62.11.510.50.20.40.91.522.42.62.521.40.80.300.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:27 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:06 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:13 AM EST     1.33 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:18 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:25 AM EST     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:09 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:38 PM EST     1.09 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:25 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:36 PM EST     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.30.41.11.31.310.2-0.5-1.1-1.4-1.4-1.1-0.7-0.10.611.10.90.3-0.4-1-1.4-1.4-1.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.