Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Center Moriches, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 7:18PM Thursday April 2, 2020 12:06 PM EDT (16:06 UTC) Moonrise 12:49PMMoonset 3:16AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 959 Am Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of rain late.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 959 Am Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Deep low pressure will meander well east and south of long island today through Friday night. High pressure will build across the area this weekend before a weak cold front crosses the area Sunday night. High pressure then briefly returns on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Center Moriches, NY
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location: 40.78, -72.78     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 021423 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1023 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. Deep low pressure well east of Long Island meanders today through Friday, tracking west then south. Friday night the low tracks out into the Atlantic. High pressure will build across the area this weekend before a weak cold front crosses the area Sunday night. High pressure then briefly returns on Monday, followed by an approaching frontal system for the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Timing of precipitation that moves into the far eastern zones remains on track with chances increasing for late today into early this evening. Winds, temperatures, dew points and sky are mainly on track and updated to best reflect current conditions along with the consensus of the near to short term guidance.

A nearly vertically stacked low within an elongated upper trough and closed low will remain well east of Long Island today, drifting slowly westward with weak steering flow and a blocked pattern. Precipitation with the low will be moving into the eastern zones around midday through this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds were already increasing across the eastern zones, and strong and gusty winds will spread westward through the day. With increased clouds and the northerly flow temperatures will not have much variability across the region with highs near to slightly above seasonable normals.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. The low continues to retrograde through tonight, then take a turn to the south Friday, moving away from land late Friday afternoon. Periods of rain will spread westward across the entire region with the west most extent late tonight into early Friday morning. The rain on the periphery of the low may become more scattered as the precipitation moves into a ridge across the central Great Lakes and into the Ohio river valley. The rain is expected to be light through the event as thermal forcing remains rather weak with more barotropic characteristics to the low. Gusty northwest winds will continue through tonight with the closest approach of the system.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for the end of the week.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The surface and upper lows finally begin to pull away, initially to the south, then to the east Friday night. Have delayed the ending of the precipitation. And after a lingering chance of rain across portions of Long Island, southeastern Connecticut, and into the New York City metro Friday evening, dry weather will return overnight along with gradually decreasing clouds. High pressure then builds across the region for the weekend, resulting in dry and at least partly sunny conditions. A weak upper trough moves through the ridge Saturday into early Saturday evening and may bring a period of increased cloudiness.

Clouds will gradually increase Sunday afternoon as a weakening cold front approaches from the west. With the front weakening as it reaches the area, rain chances look fairly limited at this time, but think a few showers are possible Sunday evening into Sunday night. High pressure then briefly builds back across the area on Monday before the weather turns unsettled for the middle of the week as a frontal system approaches the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Numerous model differences remain in the timing and evolution of this system. For now have rain chances gradually increasing through the day on Tuesday with better chances on Wednesday, but it is likely that at least a portion of this period will remain dry.

After near normal highs on Saturday, temperatures through the remainder of the long term period will generally be above normal. Daytime highs will range from the low to mid 50s along the immediate south facing coasts to the low to mid 60s for NYC and areas north and west. Overnight lows will generally remain in the 40s.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Low pressure well offshore will begin to slowly move west through Thursday. As a result, NW winds increase to 10-15G20kt in the metros and along the coast this morning, then increase throughout to 20-25G30kt by afternoon. Light rain with MVFR cigs is expected at KGON, KISP and KBDR mid to late morning and further west for the NYC terminals this evening.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in NW winds/gusts this afternoon. Low confidence in timing of MVFR cigs late day.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: High confidence in NW winds/gusts this afternoon. Low confidence in timing of MVFR cigs late day.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional this morning. Low confidence in timing of MVFR cigs late day.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts might be only occasional this morning. Low confidence in timing of MVFR cigs late day.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low confidence in timing of MVFR cigs late afternoon.

KISP TAF Comments: Low confidence in timing of MVFR cigs late afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thursday night. MVFR cigs possible for NYC terminals on east with chance of rain. NW winds 15-20G25-30kt. Friday. MVFR cigs with chance rain. NW winds G20-25kt. Saturday and Sunday. VFR. Monday. MVFR cigs morning, with chance of rain.

MARINE. A strong oceanic low pressure remains northeast of the area into Thursday. The low then meanders south and east of Long Island on Friday. Winds increase on all waters to SCA levels Thursday morning, continuing into Thursday night. SCA conditions are likely on the ocean waters and Eastern LI Sound and Eastern LI Bays into early Friday. A period of occasional gales are possible on the waters east of Moriches Inlet Friday afternoon. Gale conditions may linger into Friday night on the ocean east of Moriches Inlet, with SCA gusts possible for portions of eastern LI sound, Peconic and Gardiners Bays, and the ocean waters west to Fire Island Inlet.

Seas will build to about 4 to 6 feet across the western ocean by Thursday evening and to 6 to 8 feet across the east ocean by Friday morning. Seas will continue to build to 8-10 feet on Friday afternoon and evening across the southeast ocean through Saturday. Seas will remain elevated on the ocean through the day on Sunday.

HYDROLOGY. Rainfall late Thursday through Friday evening is expected to total from up to a tenth of an inch across northeastern New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley, and New York City to a third of an inch across southeastern Connecticut and the twin forks of Long Island.

No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Minor coastal flooding benchmarks may be reached for Friday morning and Friday evening high tide cycles. The greatest potential for this to occur is for the south shore back bays, with a lower risk across the western Long Island Sound. More widespread minor coastal flooding is possible for Saturday mornings high tide.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . MET NEAR TERM . JE/MET SHORT TERM . MET LONG TERM . FEB/MET AVIATION . DBR MARINE . DBR HYDROLOGY . MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 35 mi78 min N 9.9 G 18 47°F 44°F1003.6 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi78 min N 11 G 19 47°F 45°F1002.6 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 42 mi76 min 21 G 23 44°F 45°F6 ft1004.5 hPa (-1.2)
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 44 mi81 min NNW 19 G 27 46°F 2 ft32°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 47 mi78 min 43°F 44°F1001.8 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY5 mi70 minNNW 18 G 2510.00 miOvercast and Breezy50°F30°F46%1003.7 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY9 mi73 minNNW 22 G 3010.00 miOvercast and Breezy48°F30°F50%1003.5 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi70 minNW 23 G 3210.00 miA Few Clouds and Windy49°F30°F50%1003.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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1 day ago443SE4SE4NE5SE8SE5--E3CalmCalmCalmN3Calm334NE44N5N9
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2 days ago3N5NW54N93N443CalmCalmCalm434636Calm334N74

Tide / Current Tables for Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York
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Moriches Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:46 AM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:47 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:44 PM EDT     2.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:49 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.82.92.72.21.61.10.80.50.40.71.11.72.22.42.52.31.81.20.80.60.50.71.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:34 AM EDT     1.26 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:19 AM EDT     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:09 PM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:34 PM EDT     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:55 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.21.210.6-0.1-0.7-1.1-1.3-1.3-0.9-0.5-00.60.90.90.60.2-0.5-0.9-1.2-1.2-0.9-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.