Sunrise 5:27 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 5:27 PM   Moonset 3:46 AM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 342 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Today - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Tonight - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Fri - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 342 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure across the area will gradually slide east through the middle of the week, while a frontal system lifts across the plains and into the great lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. The associated cold front moves across the area Thursday night. Weak high pressure returns to the local area thereafter for Friday into Friday night. Another low pressure system may impact the area next weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 200828 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 428 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure across the area will gradually slide east through the middle of the week, while a frontal system lifts across the Plains and into the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front approaches Thursday, and moves through the area Thursday night. Weak high pressure returns for Friday into Friday night.
Another frontal system may affect the area late next weekend.



NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
It will be seasonably warm today as a high amplitude upper level ridge moves into the area. At the surface, high pressure across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic will gradually slide east.
This will result in a light SE flow developing in the afternoon. Morning low clouds across LI and much of SE CT to start the day will slowly burn off from west to east by early afternoon. There will also be some afternoon CU development, but mainly north and west of NYC. Otherwise, expect a mostly sun day.

For highs, used a blend of the NBM deterministic and NBM 50th percentile. While there will be a marine influence with weak onshore flow developing, temperatures have overachieved by several degrees the last couple of days. This blend keeps temperatures closer to the warmer GFS and ECS MOS. Lows tonight will in the 50s, very close to normal.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The warm ridge aloft across the area will gradually work offshore through the middle of the week. A storm system emerging from the Plains on Tuesday lifts NE into the upper Midwest and and western Great Lakes Tuesday night and then north of the Great Lakes on Wednesday. The trailing cold front progresses east into the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the system, temperatures will steadily warm through the period, with highs getting well into the 80s by Wednesday, with even 90 possible in some spots.
Coastal areas while cooler due to a marine influence should be able to heat up fairly quickly in the morning before a SW flow backs more to the S. Due to subsidence, the airmass is pretty dry, another factor for a strong warmup. Once again, like in the near term, took a blend of the NBM deterministic with the warmer 50th percentile. This produces highs 10 to 15 above normal and lows 5 to 8 degrees above normal. Heat indices Wednesday afternoon are close to the ambient temperatures and below Heat Advisory criteria.

Any convection during this time is forecast to stay north and west of the area. However, there is moderate to high instability to the north and west of NYC Wednesday afternoon, but no notable lifting mechanism and a high LFC. SPC Day 3 outlook does show the potential across that area for general thunderstorms.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Some key points during this timeframe:

* Well above normal temperatures continue for Thursday albeit a couple degrees cooler than Wednesday.
* Chance of thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night, possibly strong to severe across parts of the interior.

High pressure off the East Coast continues to push east Wednesday night into Thursday, while a cold front slowly approaches from the west. Aloft, a ridge axis will push off the East Coast, allowing for heights to fall Thursday.

Although a couple of degrees cooler than Wednesday, thanks to an increase in clouds, high temperatures on Thursday are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s range.

There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms out ahead and along the cold front for Thursday into Thursday night. The cold front is forecast to move across Thursday night. Chances for showers and thunderstorms decrease late Thursday night after the cold frontal passage.

There is potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to severe with the cold front as surface CAPE values look to be up to near 1000-1700 J/kg and forecast 0-6 km AGL bulk shear of 35 to 45 kt.
The best chances for strong to sever storms will be across locations north and west of NYC where temperatures will be relatively warmer.
No hydrologic concerns at this time as showers and thunderstorms will be fast moving, really limiting total rainfall accumulations.

Dry conditions are forecast Friday through Friday night with the return of weak high pressure. High temperatures on Friday will be cooler than Thursday, but still above normal, ranging from the middle 70s to lower 80s for much of the region.

There is a fair amount of uncertainty for next weekend. The ECMWF has a weak low passing to our south, while the GFS holds off any precipitation until the next frontal system next Sunday thanks to high pressure more centered over the Northeast and a bit stronger as compared to the ECMWF. The Canadian is similar to the GFS. Did not want to completely discount the ECMWF just yet, and even if it does impact the region, it looks to be just light rain showers. So, given uncertainty, stuck close to the NBM this far out.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Weak surface high pressure remains over the area through tonight.

MVFR cigs currently moving in from the east, a bit slower than was previously forecast. However, development of MVFR cigs ahead of main area of low stratus from the east has developed in the vicinity of KLGA and KJFK. This looks to impact KJFK 09Z, while it may impact KLGA within an hour after than. MVFR cigs are expected through the morning push, with a return to VFR around 16Z Monday. There is still uncertainty as to how far west MVFR cigs make it, with the current forecast having MVFR cigs making it as far west as KLGA and KJFK, but only TEMPO MVFR for KEWR, KTEB, and KSWF.

Light and variable for most terminals tonight. Sea breezes return late Monday morning into the early afternoon, shifting winds SE-S near 10 kt.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of MVFR cigs tonight and improvement Monday morning may be off by a few hours. Uncertainty in how far west MVFR cigs make it, with the cutoff possible between KJFK/KLGA and KEWR/KTEB.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night: MVFR possible.

Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR. Chc S-SW gusts around 20kt both afternoons.

Thursday: VFR in the morning, then a chance of afternoon and evening MVFR with showers and thunderstorms. Chc SW gusts around 20kt.

Friday: VFR. Chc NW gusts around 20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-advisory conditions are expected across all waters through the end of next week. However, Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons are likely to see a coastal jet produce gusts up to 20 kt and seas of 3 to 4 ft in the NY Bight. Seas may also briefly touch 5 ft on the ocean waters Thursday night just ahead of the cold front.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the upcoming week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Moriches Inlet
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Mon -- 03:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:28 AM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:25 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:56 PM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:27 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:06 AM EDT     1.07 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:44 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:53 AM EDT     -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:26 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:17 PM EDT     1.43 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:29 PM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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