Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 2:38 PM   Moonset 2:21 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 135 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Overnight - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely. Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.

ANZ500 135 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
low pressure will progress offshore this weekend. High pressure will build over the waters on Monday and Tuesday, before a strong cold front approaches during the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters on Saturday and Sunday.

FXUS61 KPHI 180604 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 204 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure slides to our south over the weekend.
High pressure then builds across our area early next week before shifting to our south. A cold front then moves through Thursday into Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure to our northeast nosing southwestward combined with the coastal storm now fairly far off the coast continues to result in marine influence across our region. Thus, despite approaching shortwave trough, overall forcing for showers will be dwindling as the system moves into and then crosses the region through today into this evening. Shower chances will be highest to the west and southwest of our region, across interior eastern PA and down across the Delmarva, closer to the edge of the marine influence where temps are warmer and more instability is to be had. That said, not expecting any thunder today as its just not enough to produce strong convection. All that having been said, still looks mostly dry this morning, but with plenty of clouds, and shower chances are highest overall across the region this afternoon as the best upper forcing moves in aloft.
With all the clouds around, temps won't be very warm, but not much different from what much of the region experienced yesterday... upper 60s with a few 70s. Today, however, best chance of 70s will be in interior central and northern New Jersey, where precip likely takes longest to reach (if it does at all).

As our upper forcing heads east out to sea overnight tonight, shower chances end, and while we don't expect much clearing overnight as the winds just don't provide any push of drier air behind the upper trough, any breaks could help some patchy fog develop, especially where rain falls today. Right now, the best odds appear to be northwest of I-95 across the Lehigh Valley and Poconos, though also parts of the Maryland eastern shore. Lows mostly in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure extends southward into our area Sunday, with most of the energy now confined to the south of the area which will help to completely end the shower chances. Some lingering low-level moisture though and especially if the clouds clear enough may result in patchy fog early Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, expect at least some sunshine to make a return. High temperatures top out into the 70s for many inland areas, although a lingering onshore flow will keep it much cooler closer to the coast.

As an upper-level ridge starts to build over the area Monday, surface high pressure becomes more centered across our region.
The increasing subsidence and drier air should assist in less cloud cover for much if not all of the region. The air mass will continue to modify and therefore afternoon high temperatures are forecast into the 70s again for much of the area. A northeast wind though should turn east to southeast as a sea breeze becomes more established and this will yet again keep it much cooler closer to the coast Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Summary...Above average temperatures and dry to start, followed by some chances for showers/thunderstorms with a cold front.
Some cooling then possible Friday.

Synoptic Overview...An upper-level ridge is forecast to be across much of the East Tuesday before it shifts offshore Wednesday. An upper-level trough tracking eastward from south- central Canada to the mid-Mississippi Valley will drive surface low pressure well to our north. A cold front however is forecast to arrive across our area Thursday into Friday as the upper- level trough mostly glances the Northeast. The flow aloft then may turn more zonal into Friday, although a shortwave trough in the Tennessee Valley may make a run at our area later Friday.
The latter is much more uncertain at this time range.

For Tuesday and Wednesday...Given the presence of upper-level ridging overhead Tuesday along with high pressure at the surface, a warmer air mass will be in place. The light winds however should result in a sea breeze Tuesday afternoon which will then make a run inland keeping it cooler closer to the coast. This setup is expected to result in no precipitation and a decent amount of sunshine given the subsidence. As we go through Wednesday, more of a return flow should become established as the ridge aloft and also the surface high shifts offshore. Low-level warm air advection should increase some with this southerly flow ahead of an upper-level trough which drives surface low pressure and a cold front. The forward motion/timing of the cold front is less certain especially as the main upper-level trough may just glance the Northeast and the surface low tracks well to our north. It is possible a band or broken band of showers and thunder makes it into our far western zones late Wednesday tied to a surface trough. Given the initial subsidence and favorable setup, temperatures were bumped up some especially away from the coast.

For Thursday and Friday...The aforementioned upper-level trough glances our area Thursday however a cold front tied to low pressure well to our north should move through sometime during this time frame. There looks to be enough forcing to produce some showers and instability should be sufficient during the afternoon and evening Thursday for some possible thunderstorms.
The warmth (and more humid) may peak Thursday ahead of the cold front with widespread low to mid 80s for highs, although probably cooler closest to the coast due to a southerly wind. As of now, the cold front should be offshore to start Friday with some cooling in its wake. The cooling does not look all that significant at this time given the weakness of the upper-level trough and it tending to just glance our region.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Through Today...Genearlly VFR early this morning. Approaching showers and continued easterly to northeasterly flow will result in cigs dropping to MVFR most terminals by midday. Vsby may briefly drop to MVFR but mostly VFR vsby expected despite passing shwoers. Winds fairly light and variable at times but overall, a weak easterly flow will prevail. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...scattered showers end but MVFR cigs linger. May be some patchy fog to reduce vsby esp NW of I-95 terminals.
Continued light/variable flow with a general easterly persuasion. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday...Areas of MVFR conditions possible with lingering showers Saturday evening, then VFR overall.

Monday through Wednesday...VFR overall.

MARINE
Ocean wave heights may flirt with 5 feet early this morning but should generally subside thereafter, so no plans for a Small Craft Advisory at present. Otherwise, northeasterly winds will prevail through tonight with speeds of 5-10 kts today increasing slightly to 10-15 kts tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents

Winds are generally around 5 to 10 mph, and the rip current risk is no longer HIGH. Will therefore cancel the HIGH risk for rip currents that was set to expire at 8 pm.

A prolonged period of N to NE winds at 5 to 10 mph through the weekend along with 3 to 4 ft seas will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents on Saturday and Sunday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Market Street Bridge
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Fri -- 02:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:17 AM EDT     1.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:46 AM EDT     5.99 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:51 PM EDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:23 PM EDT     6.01 feet High Tide
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Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania, Tide feet

Tacony-Palmyra Bridge, New Jersey, Tide feet

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