Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ronkonkoma, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:49PM Saturday August 17, 2019 10:36 PM EDT (02:36 UTC) Moonrise 9:14PMMoonset 7:50AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 727 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms this evening. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Thu..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 727 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front passes tonight as high pressure remains to the northeast. A wave of low pressure passes south of the area Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak cold front drops into the area Monday night and returns north as a warm front on Tuesday. Another cold front approaches Wednesday and moves through Wednesday night. High pressure then builds in for the remainder of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ronkonkoma, NY
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location: 40.81, -73.11     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180029
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
829 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
A warm front passes tonight as high pressure remains to the
northeast. A wave of low pressure passes south of the area
Sunday into Monday. Meanwhile, a weak cold front drops into the
area Monday night and returns north as a warm front on Tuesday.

Another cold front approaches Wednesday and moves through
Wednesday night. High pressure then builds in for the remainder
of the week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Watching line of convection approaching from the NW this
evening. Moderate instability currently in place across the
lower hudson valley and NE nj although this will be gradually
weakening with the loss of heating. If these storms sustain
themselves strong gusty winds appear to be the dominant threat.

Expect this activity to weaken or at least transition to into
more of an elevated convective state as it continues on a se
trajectory, especially once it encounters the more stable marine
layer establishing itself in ct and on long island.

Stratus development is already underway and is expected to
continue to expand into the overnight hours. However, could see
some clearing after midnight as the flow becomes more SW aloft.

Patchy fog should be mainly confined to eastern coastal areas,
but will need to be monitored as webcams indicated locally dense
fog on the waters before the loss of daylight.With plenty of
clouds tonight and continued light veering onshore flow, temps
will not vary much, upper 60s to lower mid 70s.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
The area will remain between two upper shortwaves, one passing
to the nw, and another passing just south. A sfc low passes to
the south. Stratus will once again lift dissipate as the morning
progresses, and high humidity along with increasing
temperatures into the 80s will result in a hot day. Heat indices
will likely approach and in some cases exceed 90 degrees
Sunday.

Few to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once
again in this persistent pattern airmass.

Lows at night will remain in the 70s.

There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at
atlantic ocean beaches Sunday.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Hot, humid and somewhat unsettled weather will continue for the
first half of next week. Nwp is in good agreement with the overall
upper pattern across north america during the long term period, with
bermuda high pressure remaining in place resulting in gradually
rising heights across the northeast early next week.

Guidance has trended slightly lower with highs on Mon and as a
result confidence in a widespread 95-99 degree heat index
doesn't look as widespread as it did yesterday. Currently think
ne nj has the greatest potential to warrant a heat advisory
sun Mon but will let the mid shift have a look at one last round
of data. Pcpn associated with low pres passing well south of
long island on Monday appears to remain offshore, although a
trough of low pres developing north and west of nyc could
trigger isold showers tstms during the aftn eve with this threat
continuing through the overnight hours as a weak cold front
moves into the area. Humid conds then continue through wed,
although more cloud cover and increasing chances for pcpn is
expected to keep temps slightly cooler than Mon with less of a
chance of heat advsy criteria being met.

Heights will fall on Wed as the closed low moves into eastern
canada. Showers tstms develop as a result of a pre-frontal
trough Wed aftn and continue into Wed night as a stronger cold
front moves through. A dry and more comfortable airmass builds
in thereafter as high pres builds from the great lakes into the
weekend. Temps are expected to be near to slightly below normal
levels during this time.

Aviation 23z Saturday through Thursday
High pressure weakens to the east of the region, while a warm
front approaches from the southwest on Sunday.

A line of showers and thunderstorms to the north and west of
the terminals this evening is likely to dissipate before
reaching the area. However, an isolated shower or thunderstorm
however can not be ruled out.

MVFR ifr conditions will mainly be restricted to the coastal
terminals overnight. In fact, some locations may even becomeVFR
overnight as drier air works in just above the moist marine
layer.VFR returns to all terminals on Sunday.

Winds will veer to a more southerly direction overnight at less
than 5 kt, then increases to around 10 kt by Sunday afternoon.

There is a chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday, with the best chance north and west of
the nyc terminals.

Outlook for 00z Monday through Thursday
Sunday night Chance of evening showers and thunderstorms.

Best chance north and west of the nyc terminals.

Monday MainlyVFR. Slight chance shower or thunderstorm.

Tuesday-Thursday MainlyVFR. Chance showers or thunderstorms.

Marine
Easterly flow will veer more to the south by Sunday as a warm
front lifts, 10 kt or less. Seas remain under 5 ft on the ocean
and 1 ft or less across the non ocean waters.

Sub advsy conds are expected to prevail through the period,
outside of tstms. Seas on the ocean could approach 5 ft wed
night into thu, although feel that guidance was overdoing the
seas on SW flow so have knocked them down a foot for now.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected at this time through the forecast
period.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 8 mi96 min Calm G 3.9 74°F 79°F74°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 25 mi54 min ESE 5.1 G 6 74°F 76°F1014.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 35 mi48 min SSW 4.1 G 6 75°F 74°F1016.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 39 mi46 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 76°F 77°F3 ft1015.5 hPa (+0.9)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi36 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 74°F 74°F1015.3 hPa (+1.1)74°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 49 mi48 min 76°F 74°F1015.5 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY1 mi1.7 hrsSSE 510.00 miOvercast75°F73°F96%1015.3 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY13 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F72°F94%1015.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY17 mi43 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F72°F94%1015.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E3E4CalmCalmNE3NE3E3CalmNE4NE5SE4E4NE6E5NE6N6E5SE7SE11SE7E6SE5S3
1 day agoE5E4E4N4NE6NE6NE5E4NE3NE6E4NE5E4SE9SE7SE6SE7SE10SE8S7SE8SE8E8E7
2 days agoSE5E4E3CalmN4N5N4NE4NE3NE9N7NE7E4E6SE9SE10SE13SE11SE10SE11SE8SE7E6E4

Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Long Island, New York
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Patchogue
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:50 AM EDT     0.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:43 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:16 PM EDT     0.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.70.60.40.30.1000.10.30.50.60.70.70.60.50.30.20.10.10.20.30.5

Tide / Current Tables for Sayville (Brown Creek), Long Island, New York
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Sayville (Brown Creek)
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Sat -- 01:06 AM EDT     0.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:40 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:32 PM EDT     0.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:49 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.