Ronkonkoma, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ronkonkoma, NY

June 21, 2024 10:37 PM EDT (02:37 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:19 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM
Moonrise 8:45 PM   Moonset 4:25 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 720 Pm Edt Fri Jun 21 2024

Tonight - S winds around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms, mainly this evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then chance of tstms and slight chance of showers in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.

Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then chance of tstms and slight chance of showers in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sun night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Mon night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

Tue - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 720 Pm Edt Fri Jun 21 2024

Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front to the north of the region, slowly retreats back north as a warm front this weekend. A cold front approaches late Sunday, moving across Sunday night into Monday, followed by high pressure on Tuesday. Another frontal system will approach on Wednesday and move slowly across from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. High pressure will return for Thursday night into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ronkonkoma, NY
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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 212359 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 759 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front to the north of the region, slowly retreats back north as a warm front this weekend. A cold front approaches late Sunday, moving across Sunday night into Monday, followed by high pressure on Tuesday. Another frontal system will approach on Wednesday and move slowly across from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. High pressure will return for Thursday night into Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Broken line of weakening convection continues to sag south and east off the CT coast early this evening. Still an isolated thunderstorm or two could produce locally heavy downpours and perhaps a brief wind gust to 40 mph, mainly in southern CT or the Lower Hudson Valley, but the threat for severe weather is quickly coming to an end and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was in effect has been cancelled. This weakening convection may drift south onto Long Island and portions of the NYC metro, but with limited impact other than passing rain showers. Forecast remains on track and previous discussion follows.

Region remains on NE edge of southern ridging, with subtle convectively induced vorts moving through flow. A cold front over central New England sinks south towards the region this eve, likely stalling just north of the forecast area late in the day into night.

Moderate to strong instability development in a weak shear environment this afternoon to the north of sea breeze boundaries this afternoon. With trigger from subtle shortwaves aloft, and focus along sea- breeze boundary across central CT and approaching pre-frontal trough across NW CT. Expecting both of these areas of convection to consolidate and sink se across eastern portions of LoHud and S CT, bringing scattered strong to severe wet microburst threat in a weak shear and weak mid-level lapse rate environment, and isolated to scattered flash flood threat in path of training cells in a 2" PWAT environment. This activity should weaken after 7-8pm as it sinks se and into more stable marine layer.

With westerly steering flow, and more stable airmass along the coast expected convective threat to be isolated for NE NJ, NYC and LI this evening, with weakening and transition to elevated.
Main threat is for a few pulse strong to severe wet microbursts across LoHud and southern CT in a weak shear and mid level lapse rate environment. SPC HRRR indicating a low prob for 3"/3hr across southern CT/LoHud, signaling an isolated flash flood threat from slow moving tstms in a 2" PWAT environment.

Convection will gradually weaken and dissipate late this evening with loss of daytime instability. Isolated shra/tsra possible overnight in vicinity of outflow boundaries.
Otherwise, very warm and muggy conditions overnight, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
Upper ridge continues to sink south through the weekend, with deep layer flow aloft backing from W to SW. At the surface, cold front retreads north tonight and remains fairly stationary across central and SE New England through the weekend.

Heat continues to build through the weekend, with 850mb temps rising into the upper teens on Sat and 20-21C on Sun. Gusty SW flow and deep mixing will have surface temps similarly increasing each day away from the coast. High in the mid to upper 90s likely for NE NJ, NW NYC, and surrounding portions of LoHuD, with widespread upper 80s to lower 90s for remainder of the area. A strengthening S/SW flow will limit south coastal LI and SE CT in the lower to mid 80s each day. High temperatures on Sunday could touch or break daily records across NYC/NJ metro.

850mb TDs climb slightly Sat into Sun as well, indicating a slight upward trends in surface Td's as well, but still likely some Td mixout in the afternoon during peak heating. This expands the threat for 95 to 100 heat index into northern New London/Middlesex and NW LI for the weekend, continuing from today. Isolated 105 HI possible for NE NJ and immediate surroundings Sat and Sun, but too low coverage/confidence for upgrade to excessive heat at this time. T/Td trends will be monitored thru the weekend for possible upgrade. Blend of deterministic NBM and HRRR for T and Td seems to be verifying well.

Focus for tstms Sat aft/eve looks less clear than today as warm front pushes farther north into northern New England. Isolated convective initiation possible along sea- breeze and off higher terrain to the NW (drifting east) in moderate to strong instability but still weak shear/mid level lapse rate environment. More widespread convective development possible along backdoor cold front moving westward across SE New England, but this appears to stall east of the area, but could clip far SE CT. For now, have capped pops at high chance for interior, to slight/low chance for the coast, based on the above. Isolated wet microburst potential with any convective development along and north of these boundaries in moderate to strong instability and weak shear/mid-level lapse rate environment.

A seemingly better chance for organized convection late Sun into Sun Eve with lead shortwave ahead of digging Great Lakes shortwave and pre-frontal trough approaching from the west. This approaching system will strengthen wind fields and deep layer shear over the region, likely promoting better organizing of upstream convection and longer lived updrafts. Question is timing of this convection into our area. Moderate to strong instability is likely once again across NYC and pts N&W Sun afternoon, but late day/evening timing of convection would not maximize potential. Marginal severe threat from SPC looks reasonable based on mismatch btwn shear/and peak instability timing, and strong synoptic S/SW flow disrupting any clear focus outside of elevation.

Low and localized flash flood threat both days with isolate to scattered convective coverage on Sat, and likely better forward progression of convection on Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Key Points:

* Heat wave comes to an end Sunday night-Monday with a cold frontal passage.

* One more hot day expected ahead of another frontal system on Wednesday.

* A slow moving frontal system could bring locally heavy rainfall from late Wednesday into Thursday.

NBM was generally followed, with some adjustments mainly to to temperatures and dewpoints per 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF guidance.

The heat wave should come to an end as an upper trough/closed low and associated cold front approach the area Sunday night into Monday. A few tstms with gusty winds possible Sunday evening via pre- frontal deep layer unidirectional shear (mid layer SW-W flow 35-50 kt) and leftover steep lapse rates from daytime heat. Brief heavy rain could also be possible with any storms.

Front clears the area daytime Mon, with any 90-plus temps shunted just south into central NJ, and heat index values close to actual temps.

Tue should be a bit warmer with high pressure and downslope W-NW flow in control. High temps will range from 85-90 in most places, with similar heat index values as afternoon dewpoints should be no higher than the upper 50s/lower 60s. Wed will be a little warmer and more humid still, with high temps 90-95 from NYC north/west and the heat index approaching or just surpassing 95 for one day as afternoon dewpoints increase to the lower/mid 60s.

A slow moving frontal system should bring an end to this shorter spell of heat, with chances for tstms from late day Wed into Thu.
More on this in the Hydrology section.

Locally heavy rainfall possible with PW approaching 2 inches and some potential for training cells along the slow moving frontal boundary. Attm Fri looks dry with temps near or just above the seasonal avg.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure remains across the Western Atlantic as a front lingers north of the region.

Mainly VFR. Some isolated thunderstorms left over currently, with mainly just some shower activity. Thunder remains possible for KSWF, KHPN, KBDR and KGON, likely only until about 01z. For the other terminals, likely only showers if anything until about 02z. An outflow boundary moved through most terminals and brought winds around to the north. This will likely only last an hour or 2 at the most, depending on the terminal. Some patchy fog/stratus may develop tonight for eastern terminals, but confidence in this is too low to include in the TAF at this time.

Winds gradually lighten tonight, with similar flow and speeds expected Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible again Saturday afternoon/evening. Thunders will likely be isolated and confidence was too low to include in the TAF anywhere except KSWF. PROB30 for SHRA was included elsewhere.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty in exactly how long winds will stay north this evening. Regardless, wind speeds will slowly diminish.

Amendments possible for timing and coverage of showers.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the early evening hours.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely late day into the night. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the morning.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower at times with showers and thunderstorms possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through at least Saturday.
Marginal SCA conditions possible for ocean waters leading to NY Harbor and surrounding near-shore waters with afternoon coastal jet development and seas of 3 to 5ft.

Higher confidence in SCA for winds and seas on the ocean water Saturday Night into Sunday as S-SW flow strengthens. Gusts up to 30kt possible Sunday aft. Nearshore non- ocean waters may see advisory gusts conditions as well Sunday aft.

SW flow 20-25 kt on the ocean with a few higher gusts to 30 kt Sunday night will maintain significant wave heights of 6-8 ft during that time frame, lowering only to 5-7 ft daytime Mon as SW flow 15 kt continues. These seas should then gradually diminish below 5 ft Mon night as a cold front passes and winds shift offshore.

Conditions fall below small craft late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

HYDROLOGY
Isolated thunderstorms may produce brief heavy downpours that could lead to brief nuisance flooding, but the threat for more significant flooding this evening has ended.

Low and localized flash flood threat on Saturday with any slow moving isolated to scattered tstm activity across interior.

Low flash flood threat late Sunday into Sunday Night with possible scattered convection development along/ahead of pre- frontal trough/cold frontal passage.

Another chance for locally heavy rain may come from late Wed into Thu with another frontal system. PW again increases close to 2 inches and deep layer SW flow could favor training of cells, but this remains inherently uncertain 5-6 days out.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A moderate rip current risk should continue at the ocean beaches on Saturday via combo of 3-ft SW wind waves and 2-ft long period SE swell. A high risk is likely for Sunday as S-SW flow increases to 20- 25 kt and 5-ft S wind waves increase to 6-8 ft in the afternoon.

Will only mention the high risk in the SRF and HWO and hold off on rip current statement issuance, to avoid any confusion with the moderate risk for Saturday.

CLIMATE
Here are current record high temperatures thru Sunday...

Saturday, June 22:

NYC: 98(1988)
LGA: 99(1988)
JFK: 94(2012)
EWR: 101(1988)
ISP: 94(2012)
BDR: 93(1949)

Sunday, June 23

NYC: 96(1888)
LGA: 95(1965)
JFK: 94(2010)
EWR: 97(1965)
ISP: 91(1999)
BDR: 91(2010)

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ005>009.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ067>075-176-178.
Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ078- 177.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 25 mi50 minSSE 4.1G5.1 73°F 65°F30.07
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi50 minSSE 2.9G5.1 73°F 67°F30.11
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 35 mi50 min0G1.9 71°F 64°F30.10
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 38 mi38 minS 14G18 73°F 71°F30.1171°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 44 mi28 minSSW 16G19 71°F 70°F30.0968°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 49 mi50 min 81°F 68°F30.04


Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KISP LONG ISLAND MAC ARTHUR,NY 1 sm41 minS 0710 smMostly Cloudy75°F70°F83%30.11
KHWV BROOKHAVEN,NY 13 sm41 minSSW 0710 smClear77°F70°F78%30.12
KFRG REPUBLIC,NY 17 sm44 minSSE 1110 smClear77°F68°F74%30.11
KBDR IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL,CT 24 sm45 mincalm10 smA Few Clouds73°F72°F94%30.12
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Wind History graph: ISP
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Patchogue, Long Island, New York
   
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Patchogue
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Fri -- 04:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:06 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:27 AM EDT     0.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:58 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:10 PM EDT     Full Moon
Fri -- 11:41 PM EDT     0.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Patchogue, Long Island, New York, Tide feet
12
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0.8
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0.7
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0.8


Tide / Current for Sayville (Brown Creek), Long Island, New York
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Sayville (Brown Creek)
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Fri -- 04:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:03 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:43 AM EDT     0.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:55 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:10 PM EDT     Full Moon
Fri -- 11:57 PM EDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Sayville (Brown Creek), Long Island, New York, Tide feet
12
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0.7
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Upton, NY,




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