Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saddle Rock, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Cold front is just south of Long Island overnight. Some weak reflectivity echoes have developed indicating a few light showers. Coverage expected to remain isolated into early morning. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions into early morning hours with abundant mid to high level clouds.

Temperatures overnight will average close to or just above the seasonal norms with mainly 60s for lows.

Questions remain abound for the day Friday. The cold front is expected to stall nearby. At the same time high pressure attempts to ridge down, at least temporary from the northwest before the next impulse attempts to approach from the west towards late in the day and evening. Also the upper level jet gets further downstream to the northeast as the region should get in-between any mid and upper level support / forcing mechanisms. Low end chance to slight chance PoPs appear prudent for the day Friday, although the consensus of NWP guidance keeps the region dry much of the day. More of an onshore flow is expected into Friday afternoon with some uncertainty as to how much the onshore flow can penetrate into western most areas.
With some cloud cover and more of an onshore flow temperatures should be cooler with mainly upper half of the 70s to lower 80s for daytime highs.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
During Friday night with the frontal boundary stalled nearby and perhaps just south of the area expect disturbances to more or less ride along the boundary. Occasional showers looks to take place during Friday night. The column is forecast to saturate further into later in the overnight and into early Saturday morning. Instability appears to be limited Friday night into Saturday, thus will carry high end chance to low end likely PoPs for weather across the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. During the day Saturday it doesn't appear to be a complete washout, as after the disturbance from the morning gets through most NWP guidance suggests a relative break or pause in any shower activity. Thus, have included low end chance PoPs Saturday afternoon. Suffice it to say that the start of the weekend will feature more in the way of clouds, with a period or two of unsettled weather with the potential for showers. With the onshore flow progged to continue on Saturday with a E-ENE wind in the boundary layer expect temperatures to average below normal. Max temperatures will likely only reach the upper 60s to perhaps some lower and middle lower 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
No significant changes were made to the long term Saturday night through next Thursday.

Key Points:

*While there is a chance for showers through the period, it will not be a complete washout.

*Difficult to time waves of low pressure and moisture interactions with the stalled boundary to our south will ultimately determine when/if showers occur across parts of the area Saturday night through early next week.

*The stalled boundary starts retreated northward later Tuesday through Thursday continuing the chance for showers, possibly a thunderstorm.

*Temperatures will average below normal Sunday and Monday then return to more seasonably warm levels Tuesday with potential of warmer than normal conditions mid to late week.

The region will lie on the southern periphery of the westerlies for much of the long term period with ridging holding across the southern US. A frontal boundary will remain stalled across the Middle Atlantic. The main forecast challenge Saturday night through Monday will be from difficult to time waves of low pressure on the stalled front as well as an subtle shortwaves in the middle level flow. Surface ridging will also try to take hold over the area, which may limit how much shower activity can develop. Model trends have been leaning in this direction, especially for Sunday into Monday with increasing chances for mostly dry conditions. The upper ridging may start building along the eastern seaboard Tuesday and Wednesday allowing the boundary to lift back to the north as a warm front. A more organized shortwave may then start approaching towards next Thursday which may also bring in another cold front, but this remains uncertain given it is a week out.

Rainfall amounts and any impacts appear limited at this time with any greater chance of convection potentially occurring mid week as conditions warm up and instability starts increasing. There will likely be adjustments to PoPs and timing of any potential convection once the mesoscale environment becomes better resolved.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front will stall south of the region with an area of low pressure developing and approaching along it for the TAF period.

VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period. Clouds are expected to remain mainly broken coverage at mid to high levels.
Clouds lower and thicken after 00Z Sat with potential for MVFR after 06Z Sat as showers become more probable.

Winds initially will be variable direction and near or less than 5 kts. Winds become more E to SE during the day and increase to near 10 kts. Winds remain generally easterly and decrease to near 5 to 7 kts towards end of TAF period but will be variable direction for some terminals outside of NYC.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few brief isolated showers are possible before 00Z Sat.


OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday night: Mainly VFR but MVFR possible with showers becoming more probable.

Saturday: MVFR to IFR with chance of showers. Occasional NE wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Saturday night: Lowering chances of showers. MVFR to IFR possible.

Sunday: Chance of showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm afternoon into early evening. MVFR to IFR possible at times. Otherwise VFR.

Monday: Chance of showers. MVFR to IFR possible at times. Otherwise VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub advisory conditions are anticipated for all waters through the first half of the weekend. Ocean seas generally hold at 2 to 3 ft with a relaxed pressure gradient and a light onshore flow. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels from Saturday night through next Tuesday with a weak pressure gradient in place.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The rip current risk is low on Friday with a light easterly flow and limited swell. There is a moderate rip current risk on Saturday with increasing easterly flow and building seas 3 to 4 ft.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.