Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Quogue, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) High heat and humidity becoming increasingly likely from mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A highly anomalous amplified upper flow will be featured across the country from mid to late week, with a trough out west and a a high centered over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. H5 heights in the East will be close to 596 dm, about 2 SD above normal, and H8 temps in the 12Z GFS are even warmer, ranging from 21-25C each late afternoon. With a little downslope warming via NW flow aloft and light W-NW sfc flow temps are likely to surpass 100 in NE NJ on Wed, and over a more widespread area Thu/Fri. With dewpoints in the lower 70s Wed and the mid/upper 60s Thu/Fri, max heat index values are likely to be 95-110 Wed- Fri across the majority of the area.

NBM probability of high temperatures greater than 100 Wed through Fri are greater than 75% for much of NYC and NJ metro, while the probability of greater than 105 is approaching 50% for Thu and Fri.

Forecast low temperatures in the lower 80s across NE NJ and NYC Thu night and Fri night. Heat index values not expected to drop below the lower 80s in NYC and immediate surrounding areas Wed night through Fri night, making for little to no recovery from heat stress Wed through the day Sat.

With these values, extreme heat warnings could be needed for the urban corridor and the Hudson/CT river valleys on Wed, for virtually the entire CWA on Thu and Fri. The one uncertainty during this time frame will be the dew point values. From Wed through Sat, NBM dew points differences between the 25th and 75th percentile range from 6 to 9 degrees, meaning that forecast heat index values are in question. This is not to suggest that heat headlines are not likely, just the type of headlines that would be needed (Heat Advisory vs Extreme Heat Warning), as any mixing, especially in the urban areas, could bring dew points, and thus heat index values down, though given the light flow over the time frame, this seems less likely.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Weak low pressure along front south of the region will gradually move farther southward, making way for high pressure to build in from the north later today into tonight.

Remaining MVFR to LIFR with stratus and fog this morning expected to dissipate during the latter half of this morning.
Otherwise, conditions are VFR. Conditions are excepted to return to VFR for all terminals by the afternoon.

Otherwise, the other caveat is with shower development this afternoon into early evening, expected to stay north of most of the forecast terminals. KSWF has VCSH to convey the possibility of the showers. A brief period of MVFR is possible. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible as well.

For tonight, KGON and KISP are forecast to have lower conditions down to IFR with development of stratus and fog.
Other terminals have VFR but there will be low chances for MVFR to IFR late tonight into early Monday morning.

Regarding winds, they stay light and under 10 kts through the TAF period. Wind direction variable initially but a general east to southeast direction is expected during the day and into tonight.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible if shower coverage is higher than forecast.

IFR possible for early morning hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

.Monday: Possible early morning MVFR to IFR. Otherwise, VFR.

.Tuesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible with a few possible showers/thunderstorms afternoon into night. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

.Wednesday: Possible early morning shower/thunderstorm with MVFR possible. Otherwise, mainly VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

.Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions forecast to remain below SCA thresholds on the non ocean waters through Thu. Wind gusts approach 25 kt on the ocean waters late day Tue and Wed, mainly late in the day on both days. Seas approach 5 ft on the ocean in a S flow late Wed into Wed night.

Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains low through Monday with 1-2 ft swell sets with period varying between 5-10 s and onshore winds at or below 10 kt.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

July 1: KEWR: 100/1963 KBDR: 95/1963 KNYC: 100/1901 KLGA: 97/2018 KJFK: 102/1963 KISP: 96/1964

July 2: KEWR: 102/1966 KBDR: 100/1966 KNYC: 100/1966 KLGA: 101/1966 KJFK: 101/1966 KISP: 99/1966

July 3: KEWR: 105/1966 KBDR: 99/1966 KNYC: 103/1966 KLGA: 107/1966 KJFK: 104/1966 KISP: 104/1966

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 27: KEWR: 75/1999 KBDR: 73/1953 KNYC: 76/1943 KLGA: 77/1943 KJFK: 73/2003 KISP: 72/2021

July 1: KEWR: 77/2018 KBDR: 73/2013 KNYC: 79/2018 KLGA: 79/2018 KJFK: 75/1968 KISP: 73/2025

July 2: KEWR: 79/2022 KBDR: 73/2022 KNYC: 82/1901 KLGA: 78/2002 KJFK: 74/2018 KISP: 74/2014

July 3: KEWR: 82/2002 KBDR: 75/2002 KNYC: 82/2002 KLGA: 81/1966 KJFK: 78/2002 KISP: 76/2018

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.