Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mastic, NY
December 8, 2023 11:35 PM EST (04:35 UTC)
Sunrise 7:01AM Sunset 4:25PM Moonrise 3:23AM Moonset 2:40PM
ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1030 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
.storm watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night...
Overnight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain and slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
.storm watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night...
Overnight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain and slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1030 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. Offshore high pressure will continue to retreat out into the western atlantic, while a strengthening frontal system over the mid section of the country tracks east. A strong cold frontal passage will occur late Sunday night into Monday morning, with low pressure deepening along it as it tracks into canada on Monday. A broad area of high pressure then builds in through the rest of next week.
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. Offshore high pressure will continue to retreat out into the western atlantic, while a strengthening frontal system over the mid section of the country tracks east. A strong cold frontal passage will occur late Sunday night into Monday morning, with low pressure deepening along it as it tracks into canada on Monday. A broad area of high pressure then builds in through the rest of next week.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KOKX 090342 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1042 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
SYNOPSIS
Offshore high pressure will continue to retreat out into the Western Atlantic, while a strengthening frontal system over the mid section of the country tracks east. A strong cold frontal passage will occur late Sunday night into Monday morning, with low pressure deepening along it as it tracks into Canada on Monday. A broad area of high pressure then builds in through the rest of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Upper level ridge will move over the Northeast tonight as the center of surface high pressure slides off the East Coast. The main forecast challenges tonight will be if there will be any fog and/or stratus developing late tonight. NAM forecast soundings show a low level inversion late tonight well inland with abundant low level moisture trapped underneath. Other models show a hint of this inversion, but not nearly as deep.
Meanwhile, ensembles show high probabilities of fog and stratus, mainly well north and west of NYC. Therefore, opted to continue mention of patchy fog and increasing clouds late.
Mid level and high level clouds will impact the extent of cooling overnight, with lows currently forecast to range from the lower and mid 30s inland and the Pine Barrens region of LI, to the lower 40s across the NYC metro. Temperatures will level off and even may rise toward daybreak due to warm advection.
There is also the possibility of freezing fog in the areas well north of the area, but with even more uncertainty, did not mention in the actual forecast. If this does occur, then an SPS may need to be issued later tonight.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Any fog burns off early in the morning Saturday as the lower layers warm. Weak warm advection and rising heights will mean warmer conditions, with highs rising into the 50s region-wide. More in the way of clouds are expected as a weak surface trough moves toward the area, but if clouds break out a bit, even warmer temperatures are possible. Saturday night will see a slight chance to low end chance for light rain with the warm front still in the forecast area. The only areas the might not see any precipitation will be eastern areas. With continued abundant low level moisture, patchy fog will once again be possible, though a bit more widespread than the previous night. Lows will also be warmer given continued weak warm air advection, ranging from the 30s well inland to the middle 40s across the metro area.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A flood watch has been issued for all but the Twin Forks of LI, and a high wind watch has been issued for all of LI, along with Brooklyn and Queens. Both watches start at 4 pm Sun.
A cold front approaches on Sun, with strong moisture transport ahead of it. High pres over the Atlc will allow for a strong pres gradient, so increasing winds can be expected on Sun. The upr trof is still modeled to be near Lake Erie 00Z Mon, so the heaviest rainfall should hold off until late Sun aft/eve and ngt with the upr support, and only light to mdt rain for the most part during the day on Sun.
By Sun eve, rainfall increases in coverage and intensity across the region. With the strong, deep lift displayed in the modeled omega fields, isold tstms possible. The rain tapes off from W to E after midnight as the cold front sweeps thru. There is a good chance that the highest rainfall totals end up in CT with this event due to speed convergence on sly flow.
It is important to note that rainfall timing may change depending on the exact track and timing of the sys overall, and this far out it is entirely possible. There is already some spread in the models, which is why the consensus approach has been taken attm.
Any timing changes would impact the wind fcst as well. Based on the current consensus however, peak sly winds develop Sun eve and end with the fropa. The most significant winds occur as the low begins to intensify Sun ngt. For fcst gusts, generally mixed down 80 percent of the h95 winds from the 12Z NAM12. This method yields peak gusts around 60 mph. With 55kt or higher modeled around 1000 ft, these numbers seemed reasonable.
As the sys exits Mon, gusty NW flow but speeds blw advy lvls attm.
There could also be a brief changeover to snow, particularly across the interior, early Mon before ending. Little to no accumulations are expected attm.
High pres builds S of the region thereafter, keeping fair weather locked in place for the rest of the week. The NBM yields temps close to or slightly blw normal Tue-Fri.
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure offshore will continue to slowly track away from the area, while a strengthening frontal system over the mid section of the country tracks east.
Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. The only exception is the potential for MVFR to IFR fog late tonight into early Saturday morning, mainly for KSWF and KHPN.
Light flow is forecast through the TAF period with wind speeds below 10 kt. S-SE winds into early this evening become light and/or variable tonight. Wind gradually become S-SE again late Saturday morning into the afternoon.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR visibilities possible early Saturday morning.
Light winds on Saturday could vary significantly in direction, especially during thee morning hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Night: Chance of MVFR or lower by 12Z. A few showers may be around as well.
Sunday: MVFR or lower in developing showers from west to east through the day. S winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt in the afternoon.
Sunday Night: IFR in showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible. S winds 20-30 kt with gusts 25-45 kt, strongest near the coast. A few gusts up to 55 kt possible near the coast.
Monday: MVFR or lower early in showers, then VFR. W-WNW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-35 kt.
Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.
Wednesday: VFR. W gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria from tonight through Saturday night as a weak pressure gradient remains in place.
Strong sly winds develop Sun into Sun ngt. A storm watch has been issued for all but portions of the Sound and Harbor, where a gale watch has been issued. NW gales possible behind the sys on Mon, then winds drop blw sca lvls on Tue. Winds are likely to remain blw sca lvls Wed and Thu, but seas on the ocean may linger aoa 5 ft.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through Saturday night.
Around 2 inches of rain is likely Sun and Sun night. Locally higher amounts in excess of 3 inches are possible. Adjustments to the fcst are possible based on changes in the overall track, timing, and intensity of the system. A flood watch has been issued for all by the Twin Forks. Widespread urban and poor drainage flooding is likely, with some areas of more significant flooding possible, including the flooding of some rivers and streams.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A strong cold front will bring increasing southerly flow late Sunday into Sunday night. The system brings potential for minor coastal flooding with the Monday morning high tide cycle.
However, the strongest southerly flow is most likely to occur between high tide cycles. Winds will quickly shift to the west early Monday morning, which will help keep water levels down during times of high tide.
There remains a large amount of spread in the surge guidance.
The highest chance for minor coastal flooding at this time appears to be for the south shore back bays and over the western Long Island Sound along the Westchester and Fairfield coasts.
If the higher end of the surge guidance and stronger onshore winds linger closer to high tide, then minor coastal flooding would be more widespread, and a localized moderate coastal flooding threat would exist.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179.
High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for NYZ075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for ANZ331-335-338.
Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for ANZ332-340-345-350-353-355.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1042 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
SYNOPSIS
Offshore high pressure will continue to retreat out into the Western Atlantic, while a strengthening frontal system over the mid section of the country tracks east. A strong cold frontal passage will occur late Sunday night into Monday morning, with low pressure deepening along it as it tracks into Canada on Monday. A broad area of high pressure then builds in through the rest of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Upper level ridge will move over the Northeast tonight as the center of surface high pressure slides off the East Coast. The main forecast challenges tonight will be if there will be any fog and/or stratus developing late tonight. NAM forecast soundings show a low level inversion late tonight well inland with abundant low level moisture trapped underneath. Other models show a hint of this inversion, but not nearly as deep.
Meanwhile, ensembles show high probabilities of fog and stratus, mainly well north and west of NYC. Therefore, opted to continue mention of patchy fog and increasing clouds late.
Mid level and high level clouds will impact the extent of cooling overnight, with lows currently forecast to range from the lower and mid 30s inland and the Pine Barrens region of LI, to the lower 40s across the NYC metro. Temperatures will level off and even may rise toward daybreak due to warm advection.
There is also the possibility of freezing fog in the areas well north of the area, but with even more uncertainty, did not mention in the actual forecast. If this does occur, then an SPS may need to be issued later tonight.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Any fog burns off early in the morning Saturday as the lower layers warm. Weak warm advection and rising heights will mean warmer conditions, with highs rising into the 50s region-wide. More in the way of clouds are expected as a weak surface trough moves toward the area, but if clouds break out a bit, even warmer temperatures are possible. Saturday night will see a slight chance to low end chance for light rain with the warm front still in the forecast area. The only areas the might not see any precipitation will be eastern areas. With continued abundant low level moisture, patchy fog will once again be possible, though a bit more widespread than the previous night. Lows will also be warmer given continued weak warm air advection, ranging from the 30s well inland to the middle 40s across the metro area.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A flood watch has been issued for all but the Twin Forks of LI, and a high wind watch has been issued for all of LI, along with Brooklyn and Queens. Both watches start at 4 pm Sun.
A cold front approaches on Sun, with strong moisture transport ahead of it. High pres over the Atlc will allow for a strong pres gradient, so increasing winds can be expected on Sun. The upr trof is still modeled to be near Lake Erie 00Z Mon, so the heaviest rainfall should hold off until late Sun aft/eve and ngt with the upr support, and only light to mdt rain for the most part during the day on Sun.
By Sun eve, rainfall increases in coverage and intensity across the region. With the strong, deep lift displayed in the modeled omega fields, isold tstms possible. The rain tapes off from W to E after midnight as the cold front sweeps thru. There is a good chance that the highest rainfall totals end up in CT with this event due to speed convergence on sly flow.
It is important to note that rainfall timing may change depending on the exact track and timing of the sys overall, and this far out it is entirely possible. There is already some spread in the models, which is why the consensus approach has been taken attm.
Any timing changes would impact the wind fcst as well. Based on the current consensus however, peak sly winds develop Sun eve and end with the fropa. The most significant winds occur as the low begins to intensify Sun ngt. For fcst gusts, generally mixed down 80 percent of the h95 winds from the 12Z NAM12. This method yields peak gusts around 60 mph. With 55kt or higher modeled around 1000 ft, these numbers seemed reasonable.
As the sys exits Mon, gusty NW flow but speeds blw advy lvls attm.
There could also be a brief changeover to snow, particularly across the interior, early Mon before ending. Little to no accumulations are expected attm.
High pres builds S of the region thereafter, keeping fair weather locked in place for the rest of the week. The NBM yields temps close to or slightly blw normal Tue-Fri.
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure offshore will continue to slowly track away from the area, while a strengthening frontal system over the mid section of the country tracks east.
Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. The only exception is the potential for MVFR to IFR fog late tonight into early Saturday morning, mainly for KSWF and KHPN.
Light flow is forecast through the TAF period with wind speeds below 10 kt. S-SE winds into early this evening become light and/or variable tonight. Wind gradually become S-SE again late Saturday morning into the afternoon.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR visibilities possible early Saturday morning.
Light winds on Saturday could vary significantly in direction, especially during thee morning hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Night: Chance of MVFR or lower by 12Z. A few showers may be around as well.
Sunday: MVFR or lower in developing showers from west to east through the day. S winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt in the afternoon.
Sunday Night: IFR in showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible. S winds 20-30 kt with gusts 25-45 kt, strongest near the coast. A few gusts up to 55 kt possible near the coast.
Monday: MVFR or lower early in showers, then VFR. W-WNW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-35 kt.
Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.
Wednesday: VFR. W gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria from tonight through Saturday night as a weak pressure gradient remains in place.
Strong sly winds develop Sun into Sun ngt. A storm watch has been issued for all but portions of the Sound and Harbor, where a gale watch has been issued. NW gales possible behind the sys on Mon, then winds drop blw sca lvls on Tue. Winds are likely to remain blw sca lvls Wed and Thu, but seas on the ocean may linger aoa 5 ft.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through Saturday night.
Around 2 inches of rain is likely Sun and Sun night. Locally higher amounts in excess of 3 inches are possible. Adjustments to the fcst are possible based on changes in the overall track, timing, and intensity of the system. A flood watch has been issued for all by the Twin Forks. Widespread urban and poor drainage flooding is likely, with some areas of more significant flooding possible, including the flooding of some rivers and streams.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A strong cold front will bring increasing southerly flow late Sunday into Sunday night. The system brings potential for minor coastal flooding with the Monday morning high tide cycle.
However, the strongest southerly flow is most likely to occur between high tide cycles. Winds will quickly shift to the west early Monday morning, which will help keep water levels down during times of high tide.
There remains a large amount of spread in the surge guidance.
The highest chance for minor coastal flooding at this time appears to be for the south shore back bays and over the western Long Island Sound along the Westchester and Fairfield coasts.
If the higher end of the surge guidance and stronger onshore winds linger closer to high tide, then minor coastal flooding would be more widespread, and a localized moderate coastal flooding threat would exist.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179.
High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for NYZ075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for ANZ331-335-338.
Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for ANZ332-340-345-350-353-355.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44069 | 16 mi | 36 min | 46°F | 41°F | 44°F | |||
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 30 mi | 48 min | SSW 7G | |||||
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 32 mi | 48 min | SSW 9.9G | |||||
| 44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY | 44 mi | 46 min | 52°F | 3 ft | 30.21 | |||
| KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY | 49 mi | 48 min | SSE 4.1G | |||||
| MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 49 mi | 66 min | 47°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHWV BROOKHAVEN,NY | 2 sm | 39 min | S 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 46°F | 37°F | 71% | 30.24 | |
| KFOK FRANCIS S GABRESKI,NY | 11 sm | 42 min | S 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 46°F | 39°F | 76% | 30.25 | |
| KISP LONG ISLAND MAC ARTHUR,NY | 14 sm | 39 min | S 04 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 46°F | 37°F | 71% | 30.23 |
Wind History from HWV
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Moriches Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Moriches Coast Guard Station, Long Island, New York, Tide feet
Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:18 AM EST 1.22 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:21 AM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 05:33 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 08:43 AM EST -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:23 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:39 PM EST Moonset
Fri -- 02:44 PM EST 0.97 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:21 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 05:39 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:52 PM EST -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:18 AM EST 1.22 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:21 AM EST Moonrise
Fri -- 05:33 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST Sunrise
Fri -- 08:43 AM EST -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:23 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:39 PM EST Moonset
Fri -- 02:44 PM EST 0.97 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:21 PM EST Sunset
Fri -- 05:39 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:52 PM EST -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 1.2 |
| 3 am |
| 1.2 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| -0.3 |
| 7 am |
| -0.9 |
| 8 am |
| -1.2 |
| 9 am |
| -1.3 |
| 10 am |
| -1.1 |
| 11 am |
| -0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| -1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.7 |
Upton, NY,
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