Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Baxter Estates, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:29PM Saturday December 14, 2019 8:08 AM EST (13:08 UTC) Moonrise 8:00PMMoonset 10:24AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 632 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm est this evening through Sunday afternoon...
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt, becoming E around 5 kt late this morning, then becoming S early this afternoon, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas around 2 ft this morning, then 1 ft or less. Areas of fog this morning. Rain, mainly this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain and freezing rain likely in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 632 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Deepening low pressure over the mid atlantic states will track north and west of the waters today, passing north tonight into Sunday. The trailing cold front will pass through the waters this evening. High pressure will build across late Sunday night. Another low pressure system will then impact the waters Monday through Tuesday, followed by high pressure on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baxter Estates, NY
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location: 40.83, -73.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 141145 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 645 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure moves across the region today, then moves to the north of the area tonight into Sunday. High pressure will briefly build in for Sunday night, then move offshore Monday. A frontal system will impact the region Monday through Tuesday, followed by high pressure to close out the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. A broad area of low pressure was across the Mid Atlantic states with a coastal front extending to Long Island. Meanwhile the mid and upper low and trough was becoming negative across the central Appalachians into the upper midwest. As a result the low will track over the region and then to the north through today. The heaviest bands of rainfall were beginning to track to the east and north as a low level jet was strengthening off the Mid Atlantic coast and east of Long Island. Bands of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall will be possible through this morning as the coastal front occludes and then lifts to the north with the deepening low moving through eastern Pennsylvania. Meanwhile a cold front will move through by late afternoon. As the low tracks to the west and north the area will become dry slotted with rainfall becoming lighter and more scattered and even ending in some locations. Based on latest radar loops, may be a little too slow with the tapering of the precipitation.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. Early this evening the surface low and upper low will be north of the area with the negative trough axis lifting through. Upper levels will be quickly drying this evening so have lowered probabilities to chance, and then slight chance to no probabilities through early this evening. Any rain will be light. Again, may be too slow with the ending of the precipitation as heights will be rising and the atmosphere continues to dry, even at the lower levels this evening. By 05Z precipitation should be finished.

The upper flow becomes nearly zonal late tonight through Sunday, and a progressive pattern develops. The next trough will be digging into the western states Sunday, and track quickly into the area for Monday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. With near zonal flow a progressive patter develops, and dry conditions will be short lived into early Monday. Surface high briefly builds behind the departing low to the north, and moves offshore Monday. Breezy conditions will be diminishing Sunday night as the high builds.

The next system to impact the forecast area comes Monday as the high pushes offshore and a warm front develops and approaches from the southwest while at the same time, an area of low pressure develops over the Ohio Valley. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly the cold air will be replaced as high pressure tracks off shore Monday. With the progressive low have leaned toward a slightly warmer solutions, unlike the GFS and ECMWF. This low is forecast to track along the frontal boundary, moving in the vicinity of the forecast area Tuesday. Models show that the low will not be particularly strong as it heads over our region, but there could be a period of moderate precipitation Monday night associated with the approaching warm front.

Uncertainty with model solutions Monday night onward will make precipitation type difficult to forecast at this point. However, do think thermal profiles will be cold enough at the start to support all snow at the start for most places, with a quick changeover to rain along the coast by mid Monday morning. However, QPF amounts will be light at this point, so little in the way of accumulation is expected.

Despite warming aloft, there may be enough cold air in the lower levels where there may be an extended period of wintry precipitation inland, with freezing rain among the precipitation types. Again, this is 4 to 5 days out and the forecast is likely to change over the next couple of days.

Associated cold front will move through late Monday night into Tuesday. Canadian high pressure builds in Wednesday through the end of next week, bringing below normal temperatures, but dry conditions.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Deepening low pressure over the Mid Atlantic states this morning lifts north and west of the terminals this afternoon, passing to the north tonight into Sunday. The trailing cold front will move across the area this evening.

A highly complex wind forecast this morning with low to medium confidence. Generally, looking at an E-NE flow for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals early this morning, becoming light and variable for time before becoming southerly this afternoon. However, the eastern terminals veer from E/SE to S this morning.

Winds speeds will be 10-15 kt, but possibly stronger at KBDR and KGON where speeds could be closer to 15-20 kt through 12Z. Winds then significantly increase this evening behind the cold front with W-SW winds 15-20 G25-35kt.

Widespread IFR/LIFR through much of today with improvement to VFR in the evening following the cold frontal passage. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Sunday. VFR. West winds around 20kt,G25-35kt. Sunday night-Monday. VFR. W wind gusts diminish to 20 kt Sunday night. Monday night-Tuesday. MVFR to IFR possible. Chance of snow for inland terminals changing to a wintry mix and then to rain. Chance of mainly rain for coastal terminals, with a period of snow or a wintry mix at the start early Monday night. Wednesday. VFR with NW gusts 25-30kt.

MARINE. Gale Warning is in effect for all waters tonight and Sunday.

Low pressure over the Mid Atlantic states this morning will rapidly deepen while lifting north and west of the waters today, passing north tonight into Sunday. The trailing cold front will work across the waters this evening. SCA conditions will precede the cold front across the ocean waters today with southerly winds. A few gusts to around 25 kt will also be possible early this morning across Long Island Sound and the eastern bays in a gradually weakening E/SE flow.

A W-SW gale develops across the waters early this evening as the low continues to deepen to the north. Gusts up to 40 kt will be possible across all waters through the day on Sunday. Seas on the ocean will remain high, 7 to 11 ft today, and 8 to 13 ft tonight into Sunday. Seas tonight will build up to 6 ft on eastern Long Island, possibly higher on Sunday.

Winds begin to diminish late in the day Sunday, but should fall below SCA around daybreak Monday. The ocean waters may see SCA wind conditions once again Tuesday as a developing low move in the vicinity.

HYDROLOGY. Additional rainfall from early Saturday morning through Saturday evening is expected to total from around one inch across northeastern New Jersey into New York City, and across the lower Hudson Valley, to as much as 2 inches across the twin forks of Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. Areal, poor drainage, and urban flooding will be likely this morning.

Another significant rainfall event is possible Monday through Tuesday, with liquid equivalent QPF of 0.5 to 1.25 inches possible. There is uncertainty in this amount given uncertainty in the track of the low and frontal positions.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Minor coastal coastal flooding is expected along the south shore bays of Nassau and Queens with the morning high tide cycle, and along the coast of SW CT and S Westchester early this afternoon. This is due to a storm system that has provided a prolonged period of onshore flow along with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon. There is also the potential for waters levels to touch moderate in the back bays of Nassau.

Elsewhere, localized minor flooding is possible along the most vulnerable locales of lower NY Harbor, eastern bays and north shore of LI, and along SE CT.

This is a one high tide cycle event.

Along the Atlantic Ocean beach front breaking surf of 8 to 13 ft (highest eastern LI) will cause significant beach flooding and erosion during the times of high tide today into tonight. Scattered areas of dune erosion and localized washovers are possible during the times of high tide Saturday morning into afternoon.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 3 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ009-010. NY . Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ071. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . 19 NEAR TERM . 19 SHORT TERM . 19 LONG TERM . JP/19 AVIATION . BC/DW MARINE . DW HYDROLOGY . 19 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 4 mi68 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 47°F 44°F999.4 hPa (-3.6)
44022 - Execution Rocks 4 mi68 min NE 7.8 G 12 47°F 32°F47°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 11 mi83 min E 5.8 G 7.8 47°F 2 ft47°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi68 min 50°F 45°F999 hPa (-3.0)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi68 min N 6 G 8 49°F 998.8 hPa (-3.0)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 27 mi68 min 48°F 44°F999.1 hPa (-3.0)
MHRN6 28 mi68 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi68 min WNW 8.9 G 9.9 46°F 44°F999.2 hPa (-2.8)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi38 min S 9.7 G 12 52°F 998.6 hPa52°F
44069 34 mi68 min S 14 G 16 52°F 39°F52°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi74 min NNE 5.1 G 7 48°F 44°F999.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi78 min S 14 G 18 56°F 51°F9 ft999.2 hPa (-3.4)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi17 minVar 31.00 miFog/Mist50°F48°F96%998.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY12 mi17 minS 90.25 miLight Rain Fog/Mist52°F52°F100%998.7 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY15 mi17 minN 32.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist48°F46°F96%998.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY17 mi15 minS 110.25 miLight Rain Fog56°F55°F97%998.5 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi72 minE 42.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist50°F48°F96%999 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ19 mi17 minNNE 42.00 miFog/Mist49°F48°F100%998.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLGA

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW9N9N11N6N4E45E7S6S5S6S7S5SE4SE3SE3NE5NE5NE6NE6E7NE4NE6NE6
2 days agoN6N3N7N5N3W5W17
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Washington, Manhasset Bay, Long Island Sound, New York (2)
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Port Washington
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:02 AM EST     7.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:19 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:24 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:10 PM EST     8.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:06 PM EST     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.47.16.3531.10.20.312.557.38.48.17.25.83.81.5-0-0.5-0.30.62.65.2

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:02 AM EST     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:37 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:23 AM EST     1.00 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:24 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:47 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:25 PM EST     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:57 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:47 PM EST     0.99 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:08 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.20.10.30.60.90.90.4-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.400.20.40.810.60.1-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.