Baxter Estates, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Baxter Estates, NY

December 7, 2023 8:00 AM EST (13:00 UTC)
Sunrise 7:03AM   Sunset 4:28PM   Moonrise  2:25AM   Moonset 2:23PM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 542 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of flurries late this morning. Chance of snow showers and slight chance of showers early this afternoon, then chance of sprinkles and slight chance of snow showers late.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ300 542 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. A weakening low pressure area along a front approaches the region today into early this evening. High pressure then moves across the area later tonight and then moves offshore Friday. High pressure will be in control Friday and Saturday. A strong cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through during Sunday night. High pressure then builds in on Monday and remains in control through Monday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baxter Estates, NY
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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 731 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

A weakening low pressure area along a front approaches the region today into early this evening. High pressure then moves across the area later tonight and then moves offshore Friday. High pressure will be in control Friday and Saturday. A strong cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through during Sunday night. High pressure then builds in on Monday and remains in control through the middle of next week.

Minor adjustments were made to hourly temperatures for this morning to account for current observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

Aloft, in the mid levels, a shortwave approaches with its positive vorticity advection this morning into this afternoon.

At the surface, a weakening low pressure area may bring a few light rain or snow showers into mainly western parts of the region.
Forcing and moisture will be limited so the precipitation may end up materializing as just sprinkles or flurries. Little to no measurable precipitation is expected. Timing of chance POPs coincide with warmest temperatures so no snow accumulations expected.

The precipitation forecast was created after evaluating the reflectivity forecasts of mesoscale models such as the HRRR, HRW NSSL, HRW ARW, HRW FV3 and the NAM Nest which all depict discrete areas of light precipitation across parts of the region late this morning into this afternoon.

A weakening pressure gradient will allow for a less breezy day then the previous day but extra clouds will mitigate daytime high temperatures. These are forecast to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s for most locations. A blend of NBM and NBM 50th percentile was used for the max temperature forecast.

The large scale feature across the local region will be high pressure building in more later at night, which will have its cores remain well to the north and south of the region. This will keep the pressure gradient more relaxed. Also, the local area will be in the weaker part of this high pressure.

In the mid levels, that shortwave that was mentioned in the near term section will still be nearby. For the easternmost parts of the region, there will be some positive vorticity advection this evening. The mesoscale models depict pop up shower activity in the vicinity of the Twin Forks for the evening hours into the start of the overnight. Coverage is isolated to scattered at most. With well established westerly flow and limited moisture, keeping the POPs only slight chance for Eastern Long Island for snow showers and flurries or sprinkles in nearby sections along the coast as well as into SE Connecticut.

Dry conditions expected outside of the eastern parts of the region this evening and by overnight for the entire forecast region.
These dry conditions continue through Friday.

Winds overall will be relatively light due to the weak pressure gradient. Gusts diminish this evening with no gusts expected on Friday.

Low temperatures for tonight will range from the mid 20s to mid 30s. A blend of NBM, MAV, MET guidance was used.

Temperatures will warm up Friday compared to the previous day with more return SW flow developing which will allow for low level warm air advection. Again used a blend of NBM, MAV and MET guidance with forecast highs ranging from the low to upper 40s.

Ridging aloft occurs on Friday night and Saturday with surface high pressure in control, keeping us dry. Associated subsidence will compress the boundary layer further increasing temperatures aloft and raising the pressure. This in turn will lead to a lower lapse rate, so any mixing of these temperatures down to the surface will not be a warm if it weren't for the subsidence inversion. Highs on Saturday will be slightly above normal in the mid-50s for southern coastal areas. Northern interior areas will be in the low-50s. SOuth winds will also help with warming and keeping overnight lows from cooling too much.

Global 00Z guidance is mostly in agreement with the evolution of a frontal system late Sunday into Monday with only minor timing differences. A longwave trough will develop in Colorado and New Mexico moving into the Great Plains allowing a Colorado Low to develop in north Texas/Oklahoma Saturday morning. A shortwave develops within the longwave trough in the Upper Midwest that accelerates the low northeast into the Great Lakes and subsequently into Canada Saturday night. The longwave then becomes much more amplified as it moves into the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.
It develops another low in the Tennessee Valley on Sunday morning along a strong cold front extending from the first low that has now moved into Quebec. Unlike previous guidance, as the trough moves towards us and passes Sunday into Monday, it is no longer expected to become negatively tilted. The only 00Z guidance with this solution is the UKMET. This means this system may not be as potent as previously forecasted, but it still will be and may pass by a little quicker once it has arrived. Sunday night into early Monday morning the cold front is expected to pass with the low overhead, which will then further develop as it moves into New England on Monday.

A strong low-level jet is expected to develop ahead of the front, leading to strong warm air advection at the surface. Highs will reach the low-60s on Sunday, preceding the cold front. The low-level jet will reach its peak over the eastern half of the CWA where winds are expected to be the strongest around midnight at about 60-70 kts (model guidance varies between 50 and 80 kts), with south winds first beginning to increase across the area Sunday afternoon. Wind gusts are currently projected to peak 40-45 mph for the southern half of the CWA with northern interior areas reaching peak gusts around 35-40 mph. After the frontal passage late Sunday night into early MOnday morning, breezy WNW winds will take over sustained at 15-20 mph on Monday before weakening Monday night as the pressure gradient weakens from the departing low.

Rain is expected to start in the late afternoon to evening on Sunday then clear after the frontal passage before or just after daybreak on Monday. Mostly rain is expected, but light brief snow or flurries are possible in Western Passaic or Orange county before the rain ends as the air rapidly cools and dries.
PWATs will be around 1.3 to 1.6" which is right around or just above the max moving average. Its reasonable to assume that periods of moderate or heavy rain will be possible. With the quick moving front, however, it may not last long enough for any significant flooding concerns, with only minor nuisance flooding being the more likely outcome. 1-2 inches are expected in total. NBM probabilities show around 60-80% chance of greater than 1" in 24 hours with that lowering to 40-60% chance of greater than 2" of rainfall in 24 hours. The higher chances would likely be concentrated in the western half of the CWA.

High pressure then builds in through the rest of Monday and remains in control through Wednesday with an extended period of dry weather and near normal temperatures.

A weakening low pressure area along a front approaches the region today into early this evening. High pressure then moves across the area later tonight and then moves offshore Friday.

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Ceilings lower ahead of an approaching weak low today with a chance of MVFR in the afternoon, mainly due to ceilings, but north and west of NYC terminals MVFR visibilities will be possible as well. Light rain showers or sprinkles and/or light snow showers or flurries are possible in the afternoon for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals. Some snow flurries are possible near KGON for this evening also. Not expecting any snowfall accumulation.

Winds will become more westerly with wind speeds of 5-10 kt this morning then increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Gusts subside this evening with winds lowering back to near 10 kt and further lowering overnight into Friday. The wind direction becomes more variable on Friday.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of MVFR may vary a few hours from TAF. Gusts up to 20 kt may be more occasional this afternoon.


Friday-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in developing rain from west to east during the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms at night. S winds increasing with gusts 30 to 40 kt, mainly late day into night. Highest winds will be at the coastal terminals. LLWS likely.

Monday: Chance of rain showers earl with MVFR possible.
Otherwise, becoming VFR. W-WSW wind gusts 30-40 kt early, becoming more WNW with wind gusts 20-30 kt late.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/

Mainly below SCA conditions are expected across the forecast waters today through Friday with a relatively weak pressure gradient in place. Gusts up to 20 kt are expected on most of the waters with some occasional gusts up to 25 kt for the ocean this afternoon. Conditions are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds Friday night through Saturday night.

Winds and seas should ramp up quickly during Sunday with small craft conditions quickly going to gales in all likelihood by late in the day/early evening. Solid gales are expected across all waters Sunday night, with gales likely lingering into Monday morning for most of the waters. Ocean seas are likely build to 10-15 feet during this time with waves over 5 ft across portions of eastern Long Island Sound.

No hydrologic issues expected through Saturday night.

1 to 2 inches of rain are possible from late Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. It appears that the heaviest rainfall is most likely to occur during Sunday night. Minor flooding will be possible, mainly Sunday night - confidence in this is moderate.
Cannot completely rule out flash flooding either, but this is a lower confidence forecast as chances are low given flash flood guidance and the progressive nature of the storm system.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 4 mi30 min W 12 34°F 30.0621°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 4 mi42 min W 9.9G12 33°F 47°F30.08
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 19 mi42 min 33°F 46°F30.02
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 23 mi42 min W 11G12 33°F 30.08
BGNN6 27 mi42 min 33°F 46°F30.08
MHRN6 28 mi42 min W 8.9G11
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 30 mi42 min NW 12G17 33°F 45°F30.11
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi30 min 16G19 53°F30.04
44069 34 mi30 min 34°F 41°F24°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi42 min WNW 2.9G5.1 28°F 51°F30.01
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi30 min 52°F30.04

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Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KLGA LAGUARDIA,NY 10 sm69 minWNW 0710 smMostly Cloudy34°F16°F47%30.07
KJFK JOHN F KENNEDY INTL,NY 14 sm69 minWNW 1310 smMostly Cloudy32°F18°F55%30.08
KFRG REPUBLIC,NY 17 sm67 minW 0610 smClear32°F18°F55%30.06
KHPN WESTCHESTER COUNTY,NY 17 sm64 minW 0610 smClear30°F18°F59%30.02
KJRB DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN/WALL ST,NY 19 sm64 minW 08G1410 smClear34°F19°F55%30.09
KTEB TETERBORO,NJ 19 sm69 minW 0610 smClear30°F18°F59%30.07

Wind History from LGA
(wind in knots)

Tide / Current for Port Washington, Manhasset Bay, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Port Washington, Manhasset Bay, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Tide / Current for Throg,s Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Throg,s Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast   

Upton, NY,

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