Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 3:00 AM   Moonset 2:10 PM

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LEZ147 Expires:202405032015;;548462 Fzus51 Kcle 031344 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 944 am edt Fri may 3 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-032015- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 944 am edt Fri may 3 2024
Rest of today - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday night - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 59 degrees, off cleveland 51 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 031832 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 232 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Precipitation chances increase this afternoon and evening and continue through the weekend. Cooler, but still above average, temperatures prevail Saturday and Sunday with warm and unsettled weather continuing into next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and thunderstorms expected this evening, with decreasing coverage overnight.
- Temperatures well above average tonight, with record warm minimum standards being approached.
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Mid-level ridging will continue to very slowly work eastward tonight before stalling in the northeast CONUS. This will also result in an approaching surface boundary getting hung up in the vicinity of the PA/OH border by Saturday morning. Clouds are on the increase from west to east as warm and moist advection occurs from the southwest. Showers are currently firing in eastern Ohio, and with increasing CAPE/ongoing heating elsewhere, convective temperatures should be breached in more locations in the next few hours, leading to more widespread activity as a weak shortwave provides support. Temperatures have managed to reach the lower and middle 80s in some areas where cloud cover has been thinnest. The record high at Morgantown may still be attainable if clouds/rain hold off long enough.

Surface-based CAPE should peak in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range this afternoon, highest to the south of Pittsburgh. The instability combined with precipitable water climbing into the 1.3 to 1.4 inch range will support local downpours, although rates will likely remain below an inch per hour for the most part according to HRRR probabilities. Localized urban high water issues cannot be totally ruled out, and WPC continues a marginal excessive rainfall risk. However, larger-scale flooding issues remain unlikely. Also, the severe threat is correspondingly low given the lack of deep shear and decreasing levels of mid-level dryness. Shower/storm coverage will slowly wane through the night as instability is lost, but scattered activity is likely to continue. The clouds and high moisture/dewpoints will keep minimum temperatures well above normal, with some record warm low temperature standards possibly in jeopardy. See the Climate section below for details.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Unsettled pattern remains with rain chances continuing through Sunday. Thunder possible on Sunday.
- Temperatures drop, but still remain above normal.
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Eastward progression of the 500mb ridge axis slows considerably over the northeast CONUS on Saturday, with the quasi-stationary surface boundary lingering near the PA/OH border. Shortwave energy riding up the Ohio River will spread rain over the entire forecast area during the day. Areas near and to the west of the stalled boundary will have the bulk of the modest instability during the afternoon, leading to better chances of thunderstorms and notable rainfall. NBM probabilities of greater than 0.25" of rain are highest in far western PA and eastern Ohio, as expected given the above. The clouds and rain will keep temperatures suppressed as compared to recent days. In fact, easterly flow into the ridges may keep daytime highs some 15-20 degrees cooler in that region as compared to today.

The upper pattern shows better movement on Sunday, as increased troughing over the northern Great Lakes shunts the larger trough axis eastward, with the northeast CONUS ridge crossing into the Atlantic. Shower coverage should be reinforced by the approaching trough and a secondary frontal boundary. Instability of greater than 500 J/kg has 50% or greater probability across most of the forecast area according to the NBM, thus thunderstorms are a higher probability. Severe chances remain quite low as overall instability remains marginal and flow is relatively weak in the lower and mid levels. Temperatures will recover a bit in south/southwest flow, with most non-ridge areas reaching the 70s once again.

Most-likely rainfall totals across the region roughly in the 1.0 to 1.25 inch range through Sunday, with isolated higher totals likely.
Large-scale flooding concerns remain small given the relatively dry antecedent conditions, but slow storm motions could lead to isolated issues if any one location gets hit multiple times with thunderstorms.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances continue into early next week but more uncertainty lends lower confidence.
- Temperatures favored to remain above normal.
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Ensembles have been consistent in showing a shortwave trough over the Middle Ohio Valley approaching, but weakening, on Monday as it interacts with flat ridging over our region. A south-to-north gradient in PoP values still seems appropriate for the Monday/Monday night period.

Uncertainty still reigns after Monday. Most guidance depicts a ridge centered over the Great Lakes at 12Z Tuesday, along with a deep closed upper low in or near the Dakotas. The upper low appears likely to fill during the midweek period, and as it does so, shortwaves rotating around it appear to flatten out the ridge as it moves across the Upper Ohio Valley, finally eroding it almost completely in the northeast CONUS. Some strength and timing issues remain with the details of this process, which in turn could impact precipitation amounts and timing.

Nevertheless, a warm front is likely to cross on Tuesday as the ridge progresses eastward. This will lead to the persistence of a warm and moist airmass, with precipitable water values at or above the 90th percentile in the climatology. Along with the previously mentioned shortwave activity, this will keep an active weather pattern in place for our region, with decent daily precipitation chances through Friday. Deep-layer shear will increase as well behind the departing ridge, so severe weather chances will need to be monitored as well. According to CSU machine-learning guidance and NBM CWASP probabilities, Wednesday and Thursday may be the days to watch.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR will prevail this afternoon. High clouds will progressively thicken and high base cumulus fields may develop into the afternoon as heating continues. Guidance is consistent on developing shallow updrafts into the day today. Though there has been no observed lightning so far, the best heating has a chance of invigorating showers/storms into southwestern Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. The current tempo groups highlight the period of best probability at the sites with the higher confidence in precipitation.

Into tonight, convection is expected to subside and become lower coverage before resolving to some morning rain.
Saturation from prior and current rain, with cooling temperatures may force a MVFR deck by daybreak, with probabilities of IFR greater than 50% at FKL and DUJ for now.
As the morning continues on, saturated surface conditions near the surface trough will allow rain and shower chances to continue into the afternoon in southeast surface flow with modest improvement in daytime heating.

Outlook
Restriction potential continues through Sunday morning, with additional storm chances Sunday afternoon. Retractions return early next week as multiple disturbances cross the region.

CLIMATE
Some record warm minimum temperatures may be approached on Saturday.
(* denotes current forecast temperature exceeds value)

Record Year Pittsburgh 65 1938 Wheeling 63 1931, 1939, 1941 Morgantown 63 2021 New Philadelphia 60* 2012 Zanesville 65 1902



PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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