Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Palestine, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Cold temperatures this morning morning, otherwise dry and warmer today

2) Continued warmer with periodic shower chances mid week into the weekend

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure was centered across PA early this morning. Dry air in place, and efficient radiational cooling will result in temperature at or below freezing this morning.
Continued the Freeze Warning through 10 AM. Otherwise, dry weather is expected today, with some increase in high level clouds in warm advection. Highs should be around 20 degrees warmer than Monday's readings.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A shortwave trough and weakening surface cold front is expected to approach and cross the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Showers are likely, with some enhanced lift from a low level jet ahead of and along the front. Minimal instability (ML CAPE generally less than 500 j/kg) could result in a couple of embedded thunderstorms Tuesday night, with this potential shifting south of PIT during the day on Wednesday.

Dry and warmer weather is expected Thursday into early Friday as a ridge builds in. The ridge should flatten and exit the area later Friday as a more zonal type flow setting up across much of the CONUS into the weekend. Periodic shortwaves embedded in the flow should return periodic shower chances to the region Friday afternoon into the weekend. At this time, it appears the most likely time for showers is with a shortwave and surface warm front approach and passage Friday night, followed by a surface cold front on Saturday. Model ensemble data indicate relatively low instability and shear parameters, with low chances for thunder and severe storms. Lingering shower chances continue, especially early Sunday, with another weak shortwave passage.

A warming trend is expected from Wednesday through Friday, with highs eventually reaching around 15 degrees above average. A return to more seasonable temperatures is expected after the passage of the Saturday cold front.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Clear skies are expected through dawn, the with calm to light winds becoming southerly. Through tomorrow, winds will gust in the late morning / afternoon again up to 20kts, primarily out of the SSW with high clouds.

A cold front is expected to drop south through the area Tuesday night after 00Z. This will bring some showers to the northern terminals in the 00Z to 06Z timeframe and a potential MVFR visibility. It will pass into the PIT terminal in the 06Z to 12Z timeframe. As the front dives south, expected some concerns with LLWS 00Z to 06Z as well.

Outlook...
Restriction chance increase 08Z to 18Z Wednesday on a passing disturbance. Most likely restrictions remain MVFR for now with patchy rain showers.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ001>004-012- 021-509>514.