Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hampton Bays, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:34PM Thursday October 1, 2020 10:50 AM EDT (14:50 UTC) Moonrise 6:52PMMoonset 6:18AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 936 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 936 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches from the great lakes then stalls nearby this afternoon with a frontal wave developing tonight. This wave passing near or just east of the waters on Friday. High pressure builds in from the west for Saturday and Sunday, then moves northeast of the waters Sunday night. Low pressure moves into the waters for Monday and Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hampton Bays, NY
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location: 40.85, -72.5     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 011349 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 949 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front stalls across the area today with a frontal wave developing tonight passing near or just east of the area on Friday. High pressure builds in from the west for Saturday and Sunday, then moves northeast of the region Sunday night. Low pressure moves through the area Monday and Monday night. High pressure returns for Tuesday into early Wednesday. There is a chance of a storm passing north of the area Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Forecast is still on track with only minor updates to reflect current observation and trends.

The long wave trough over the Great Lakes region continues the southwesterly upper level flow. These winds keep the environment relatively moist with precipitable water values around 0.85 inches. But with no lift to speak of rain chances will be near zero today. The moisture should allow for mid level cloud cover as 850-700 RH values hover around 75-80%. Near the surface, southwest winds promote mild temperatures. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Rain chances increase this evening. A shortwave impulse embedded within the overall flow enters southern New York late tonight into the overnight hours. The wave deepens a surface low over Lake Erie and strengthens the trailing cold front. These features act as the lifting mechanism for the overnight showers. Since moisture locally isn't that high to start with as PWATs remain around 0.90 inches, models are indicating that the highest rainfall amounts will be less than 0.10 inches. These totals are expected to be focused around the Lower Hudson Valley and northeast New Jersey with decreasing amounts the further to are from the lows center.

The cold front itself pushes through the forecast area Friday. High temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 60s in the afternoon and will probable feel chiller thanks to the 10 mph northwest wind.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Most of the long term forecast will be dominated by a high amplitude longwave upper pattern, as a ridge remains in place across the western states and a trough across the central and eastern states. With a deeper shortwave moving through the longwave trough Monday the upper pattern becomes more progressive with the eastern trough weakening, and the western ridge moving into the intermountain region and western plains, until Wednesday as another high amplitude shortwave moves into the upper trough. This will keep the eastern states below seasonal normals for temperatures through the extended period.

With the shortwave Monday leaned toward the Canadian and ECMWF and WPC guidance, which all have a deep low tracking through the region, while the GFS is much more progressive and has high pressure over the region by Monday.

With the more progressive flow into the middle of next week high pressure briefly builds to the south Tuesday into Wednesday before another deep low potentially impacts the region Wednesday.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A weak cold front stalls across the region today.

VFR today with WSW flow around 8-12 kt, with ocnl gusts 15-18 kt mainly this afternoon. Winds shift W and diminish this eve, then veer NW overnight, with BKN cigs moving in with perhaps a few light showers late tonight.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

AMD may be needed to fine tune wind speeds/gusts this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Friday. Chance of rain showers, mainly for the morning and early afternoon. Best chance for MVFR conds will be NW of the NYC metros. Saturday. VFR. Sunday. Mainly VFR. Chance of rain late at night with MVFR possible. Monday. MVFR possible with chance of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. SCA conditions will linger on the ocean waters today with seas 5 to 6 feet gradually diminishing through the day.

Winds and seas likely remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters Friday through Sunday night. With a storm moving into the waters Monday there is the potential for SCA gusts across the waters, and ocean seas may approach 5 feet. However, there is uncertainty as to the strength and track of the storm.

HYDROLOGY. A low pressure system may impact the region Sunday night through Monday night with the potential for a significant rainfall. However, there is high uncertainty as to the strength and track of the low which would affect potential rainfall.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353.



SYNOPSIS . DJ/MET NEAR TERM . DJ/MW SHORT TERM . DJ LONG TERM . MET AVIATION . Goodman/DW MARINE . DJ HYDROLOGY . DJ/MET/DW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 26 mi30 min SSW 14 G 18 67°F 67°F1013.1 hPa61°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 32 mi50 min 68°F 67°F1012.7 hPa (+0.5)
44069 33 mi50 min WSW 14 G 16 65°F 58°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 37 mi50 min W 8 G 12 66°F 68°F1013.1 hPa (+1.0)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 39 mi25 min WSW 15 G 18 67°F 1011.1 hPa58°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 41 mi50 min SW 8.9 G 13 68°F 68°F1012 hPa (+0.5)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 42 mi50 min WSW 5.1 G 8.9 66°F 71°F1011.9 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY7 mi57 minSSW 810.00 miFair69°F57°F66%1013.1 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY19 mi54 minSW 810.00 miFair69°F55°F63%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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2 days ago6S6S7S7S6S6S7S6S6S4CalmS4S3S43S4S4S6S4S6S5S5S7S6

Tide / Current Tables for Ponquogue Bridge, Shinnecock Bay, Long Island, New York (2)
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Ponquogue Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:27 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:46 AM EDT     2.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:48 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 06:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:00 PM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.40.10.10.411.62.12.52.52.31.81.20.70.30.10.40.91.522.42.62.41.9

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:30 AM EDT     -1.61 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:02 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:46 AM EDT     1.48 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:52 PM EDT     -1.61 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:22 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 06:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:00 PM EDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-1.6-1.3-0.9-00.91.41.51.20.5-0.3-1-1.4-1.6-1.4-1-0.40.61.31.51.30.8-0.1-0.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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