Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Medford, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:26PM Sunday December 15, 2019 3:20 PM EST (20:20 UTC) Moonrise 9:05PMMoonset 11:12AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 938 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
.gale warning in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
Today..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt early, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft, then 1 to 2 ft late.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow. Chance of rain and sleet in the afternoon.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain and snow likely in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Tue..E winds around 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 938 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Strong low pressure departs to the north today, while high pressure builds in to the west of the area. High pressure moves over the the region tonight, slowly retreating to the north Monday into Monday night. A low pressure system will then affect the waters Monday afternoon through Tuesday. High pressure returns for Wednesday and Thursday, but with a cold front moving through Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Medford, NY
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location: 40.85, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 151837 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 137 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds in from the west today as low pressure continues to track well to the north. High pressure briefly builds over the region tonight, then drifts offshore Monday. A low pressure system impacts the region Monday through Tuesday, departing to the northeast Tuesday night. High pressure builds into the region on Wednesday and remains over the area through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Weak surface ridging will build over the area as a developing surface low tracks through the southern plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley. With a strong pressure gradient between a departing low to the north and high pressure to the west, strong and gusty westerly winds are expected. These winds and gusts will diminish early this evening as the surface high builds into the area. The high will be over the area through tonight, with the center of the high shifting off the Mid Atlantic coast toward morning. The high will keep the frontal system suppressed to the south with precipitation remaining to the southwest of the area 12Z Monday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/. While the guidance has come into a little better agreement with the shortwave tracking toward the area, there still remains uncertainty with the track of the low. The latest trend has been a shift a little farther to the south. And later guidance may continue this trend or even shift the low back to the north. The uncertainty will have impacts to the timing and type of precipitation across the forecast area.

With the latest trends have held off the timing of the precipitation as the high shows weak signals of damming, keeping cold air across the northern tier. So, will have likely probabilities after 18Z and only across the far southern zones with low end chance probabilities reaching much of the area by later Monday afternoon.

With cold air in place precipitation will be in the form of light snow. And then with warmer air moving in along the coast, especially aloft, a mix of rain, snow, and sleet will be possible late day. There may even be pockets of light freezing rain across northeastern New Jersey and into northern portions of New York City.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

Timing and placement differences remain with the track of the low through Tuesday night with the GFS a little quicker and farther north than the ECMWF. Thus confidence is on the low end with precipitation types across the region. And the NAM was showing colder lower levels as a warm layer moves in aloft, with a strengthening warm frontal boundary. So, used a blend for precipitation types Monday night through Tuesday. With the possibility of colder surface air remaining Monday night into Tuesday, there may be more freezing rain closer to the coast than currently forecast. While inland may be predominately freezing rain.

The low will be tracking well east of the area Tuesday night with the precipitation quickly ending. Drying conditions are expected by later Tuesday night as the low deepens and accelerates northeast to eventually southeast of Nova Scotia by early Wednesday.

For the rest of the long term, high pressure starts to build back into the region on Wednesday and will remain over the area through the end of the week. Expect dry conditions with temperatures below normal. Low pressure may impact the area over the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure builds over the region tonight, then drifts east Monday. A weak area of low pressure approaches the region Monday into Monday night.

Gusty west winds sustained 20-25kt with gusts 30-40kt expected across the area terminals through this evening. Winds and gusts gradually subside through the evening, diminishing late tonight becoming light and variable Tuesday.

Otherwise, VFR conditions through Monday 18z, lowering to MVFR Monday afternoon/early evening in light snow/wintry mix which will become likely for NYC/NJ metro terminals after 21z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Monday. MVFR/IFR conds in light snow/wintry mix becoming likely for NYC/NJ metro terminals after 21z. Monday night. IFR or lower likely. NYC metro and coastal terminals, wintry mix gradually changing to plain rain late. KEWR/KTEB/KBDR could see freezing rain linger into early Tue morning push. KHPN/KSWF wintry mix, including freezing rain. Tuesday. IFR or lower conds. Wintry mix, possibly changing back to all snow at KSWF before ending. Rain at NYC/NJ metro and coastal terminals, possibly changing to wintry mix before ending late. N gusts to 20kt developing Tue afternoon. Tuesday night. VFR. NW winds G20kt NYC metros/KISP mainly eve. Wednesday. VFR. NW winds G25kt mainly afternoon. Thursday. VFR. Friday. VFR.

MARINE. No changes to the winds and seas at this time.

Gale force wind gusts today, subsiding this evening, and falling below SCA by late tonight. Ocean seas will be a bit slower to respond with residual s/se swells, but should fall below SCA from w to e through Monday morning.

Sub-SCA condition expected through Tuesday morning, with SCA conditions becoming increasingly likely late Tuesday, and then likely all waters Tuesday Night through Thursday. Potential for a period of gale conditions on the ocean waters Wednesday Night with passage of an arctic front.

HYDROLOGY. Remaining flooding concerns are for the larger stem rivers in CT with a combination of the recent rainfall and melting snow to the north.

Another significant precipitation event is likely Monday through Tuesday, with liquid equivalent QPF of 0.5 to 1.25 inches possible. There is uncertainty in this amount given uncertainty in the track of the low and frontal positions.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ335-338-345. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-340-350- 353-355.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 11 mi51 min WNW 21 G 25 44°F 41°F29°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 24 mi57 min WNW 8 G 26 1008.6 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi51 min WNW 21 G 27 45°F 43°F1007.8 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 32 mi91 min W 19 G 31 45°F 2 ft26°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 39 mi51 min W 19 G 29 45°F 32°F25°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 41 mi51 min NW 22 G 29 44°F 44°F1011.3 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 42 mi91 min W 29 G 35 49°F 51°F8 ft1009.5 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY6 mi85 minWNW 18 G 2610.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy47°F27°F46%1009.2 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY8 mi85 minWNW 16 G 2910.00 miOvercast47°F26°F44%1009.2 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY20 mi28 minWNW 16 G 2910.00 miPartly Cloudy45°F23°F42%1010.2 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi28 minW 15 G 2910.00 miFair45°F21°F39%1011 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT24 mi29 minW 20 G 2910.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy46°F21°F37%1009.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE9SE8E7E11E15E15
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3N4E5E5E5E4SE8SE6SE9E4SE7SE4E6E5

Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Long Island, New York
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Patchogue
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:53 AM EST     0.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:24 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:11 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:57 PM EST     0.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:13 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.60.50.30.20-0-00.10.40.60.80.80.80.70.50.30.10-0.1-00.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island Sound, New York
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Mount Sinai Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:57 AM EST     6.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:16 AM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:11 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:11 PM EST     6.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:53 PM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.665.64.53.11.80.80.30.51.53.24.86.16.76.55.43.92.30.9-0-0.30.31.63.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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