Thursday, January28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Medford, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 5:06PM Thursday January 28, 2021 2:37 AM EST (07:37 UTC) Moonrise 5:57PMMoonset 8:17AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 928 Pm Est Wed Jan 27 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am est Thursday through Thursday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of snow. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Mon..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain or snow. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Mon night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain or snow. Vsby less than 1 nm.
ANZ300 928 Pm Est Wed Jan 27 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds into the forecast waters tonight and remains through Friday. Meanwhile, a rapidly deepening low off the carolina coast will pass well south Thursday, and to the east Thursday night and Friday. High pressure then slowly builds back in through Saturday. Another low pressure system will then approach from the west and southwest late this weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Medford, NY
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location: 40.85, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 280556 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1256 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds into the region from the west tonight, and remains through Friday. Meanwhile, a rapidly deepening low off the Carolina coast will pass well south Thursday, and to the east Thursday night and Friday. A complex low pressure system will emerge from the Rockies on Saturday, then track across the country over the weekend, potentially impacting the area for the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Surface low pressure off the Carolina coast starting to rapidly deepen with the leading edge of the high clouds expanding northward into the area overnight. Additionally, this will allow for a strengthening pressure gradient with some gusts up 20 kt developing near daybreak. Lows in will range from the lower 20 inland, to the upper 20s at the coast. Cloud cover and winds keeping temps from bottoming out.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. High pressure remains over the region Thursday as the coastal low tracks well south. However, winds will be increasing through the day. Thursday evening a surface trough/Arctic boundary moves through the region ushering in the coldest air of the winter season so far. Increasing cold advection, especially after 06Z, and increasing winds will increase, and remain below advisory levels. Wind chill values will be zero to 10 below zero across the region. Winds briefly are expected to increase Friday morning, especially across Long Island and southeastern Connecticut, as cold advection remains and a surface trough moves through. There is the potential that wind gusts will approach wind advisory criteria. High temperatures Friday will be near 15 degrees below seasonal normals.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The primary focus of the Long Term is the potential storm for the beginning of next week.

High pres over Ontario and Quebec over the weekend will funnel arctic air into the region. Temps will be blw normal, with the NBM with local adjustments used for the fcst.

The models have been consistent with the potential for low pres impacting the region for the beginning of next week . perhaps for an extended period of time. The GFS has continued this theme, but the 12Z run appears a lot faster than the model consensus has been. The ECMWF is more consistent with a slower timing. The differences are noted with the emergence of the upr low from the Rockies on Sat mrng. The GEM supports the slower ECMWF at H5 early Sat. For these reasons, the fcst leans towards the slower model timing. The GFS wasn't completely discounted, but pops were limited to slight chance during the day on Sun, which was blw the NBM.

In addition to the timing differences, there are also uncertainties with track and intensity. The ECMWF continues to resemble the progs it has been putting out for several runs, and the GFS is echoing this type of soln as well. Both models have a blocking high over the Atlc which will serve to slow the sys. The fcst keeps pops at high chance Mon and Mon ngt. Pops were raised abv the NBM on Tue to the chance category due to increased confidence in a slowing sys.

Depending on the exact track, srn and ern areas could see mixing or a changeover to rain by Mon, lasting thru Mon ngt before everything ends as snow. Typical north and west areas mainly snow attm.

Using the 12Z runs as perfect progs, the ECMWF would be a lot of rain for the coasts and ern areas with the low slipping inside the benchmark. The GFS would be mainly snow with the low staying s and e of the benchmark.

A dry fcst for Wed as the sys exits.

Went blw the NBM for daytime highs Mon and Tue with expected pcpn. Went abv the NBM for lows Mon ngt, due to the realities associated with the storm and the likely lack of any real diurnal swing.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Low pressure will rapidly deepen off the Mid Atlantic coast on Thursday, as it passes well south of the area terminals. This will usher in strong gusty winds in its wake by Thursday afternoon.

Mainly VFR conditions. There will be pockets of high-end MVFR ceilings tonight, such as KSWF which may hang on to MVFR ceilings until 08Z or earlier. High end MVFR ceilings are also possible for eastern areas, such as KGON.

NW-N winds 10-15 kt. Winds gradually ramp up toward daybreak Thursday with more widespread gusts up to 20 kt. By midday Thursday NW winds gusting 25-30kt and near 35kt by evening.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thu night and Fri. VFR with NW winds gusting up to 40kt. Sat. VFR. Sun. Becoming MVFR or lower in snow late in the day. Sun night and Mon. Chance of MVFR/IFR in snow and rain. Gusty winds possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels across all the forecast waters through tonight as high pressure builds to the west, and deepening low pressure emerges off the Carolina coast. As this low continues to rapidly deepen Thursday while tracking to the south, wind gusts across all the waters are expected to reach SCA levels, especially later in the morning and through the afternoon as northern gusts increase. Gusty north to northwest winds increase Thursday night and Friday as the low continues to deepen and track east of the forecast waters. A gale watch was upgraded to a gale warning for Thursday night and Friday for all the waters. Also, with the increased winds Thursday night and air temperatures falling into the teens across the waters, freezing spray is expected across Long Island Sound and the ocean waters. A freezing spray advisory may be needed.

Gales will come down to advy lvl on Sat for all waters. Winds and seas look to be blw sca lvls for Sun. A potential storm will bring winds and seas to at least sca lvls for Mon and Tue, with gales possible. Seas could build to at least 15 ft on the ocean during the peak of the storm.

HYDROLOGY. Dry weather is expected tonight through Friday. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated Sat-Tue.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.



UPDATE . DW AVIATION . BC/JP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 42 mi38 min N 18 G 21 45°F1016.6 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY6 mi42 minN 710.00 miFair30°F22°F72%1017.3 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY8 mi42 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast31°F22°F69%1017.6 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY20 mi45 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast31°F24°F76%1017.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi45 minN 710.00 miFair31°F19°F61%1017.7 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT24 mi46 minNNW 810.00 miOvercast31°F20°F64%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N6N6NW6N7N6N6N10NW11N13
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1 day agoN6NE6NE9NE9NE8E9NE8NE9E8E8E7E7NE5E7E8NE5N7N9NE7NE7NE9NE5N3N4
2 days agoNW10NW8NW12NW9NW9NW10NW9NW10NW10NW12N11NW9NW9NW9NW7NW5N4N7N8N9--N3CalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for Patchogue, Long Island, New York
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Patchogue
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:59 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:17 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:39 AM EST     0.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:18 PM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:49 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:13 PM EST     0.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.20.10-000.20.50.60.80.80.70.60.40.20.1-0-0.100.20.40.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island Sound, New York
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Mount Sinai Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:53 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:18 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:47 AM EST     6.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:18 PM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:15 PM EST     6.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.13.92.51.30.40.10.72.13.75.36.46.664.83.21.60.4-0.3-0.30.82.345.36

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