Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 2:51 AM   Moonset 6:52 PM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 939 Pm Edt Tue Jul 2 2024
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late this evening and overnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed - S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 939 Pm Edt Tue Jul 2 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure along the coast will gradually work farther offshore through Wednesday. A weak frontal system will then approach from the west Wednesday night into Thursday. Another frontal system follows into late week, potentially lingering near the region through the weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 030240 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1040 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure along the coast will gradually work farther offshore through Wednesday. A weak frontal system will then approach from the west Wednesday Night into Thursday. Another frontal system follows into late week, potentially lingering near the region through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Some areas were running a little warm this evening, so have lowered minimum temperatures tonight for some of the typical radiational cooling spots such as the LI Pines.

High cirrus has worked in from the west, in association with a frontal wave over the Great Lakes, but conditions remain dry this evening and tonight with surface high pressure in place.
Forecast is on track and previous discussion follows.

Surface high pressure along the coast will gradually work farther offshore into Wednesday, while the upper ridge builds east across the area. Outside of some cirrus from the Great Lakes spilling over the upper ridge, expecting dry conditions, but a bit milder tonight with low-level warm advection in a light S-SW flow.

Lows will be generally be in the mid 60s, which is close to normal.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
Upper ridge will be over the area Wednesday morning, while the surface high will be offshore. The eastward trends will continue through the day with a gradually strengthening southerly flow.
Expect some tightening of the pressure gradient in the afternoon with the chance for some gusts around 20 mph along the south shore of western LI. This may work east in the evening, but dissipating as it does so.

Expect mainly dry conditions with a slight chance of showers toward daybreak Thursday due to some warm advection on the backside of the upper ridge. This should be real spotty.

Temperatures during the time will be close to normal with humidity levels creeping up.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Key Points:

* An unsettled summer pattern takes hold, as a frontal boundary stalls just to the west and provides chances for showers and thunderstorms

* Humidity levels increase and remain elevated late this week. Heat indices may approach or exceed the mid 90s in portions of the region Fri/Sat.

While far from a washout, an unsettled pattern develops late this week with a frontal system lingering off to the north and west helping to instigate occasional showers and thunderstorms in a warm, moist air mass. A quasi-zonal pattern that will be in place to begin the period becomes more amplified, with a longwave trough setting up over the Northern Plains and upper Midwest, and a strengthening Western Atlantic ridge. As this occurs initially, the frontal boundary that approaches midweek stalls nearby Thu/Fri, then as a sfc low moves across the upper Great Lakes, a leading warm front should approach Friday night and lift north of the region on Saturday. The attendant cold front slowly approaches from the west through the weekend, potentially working east sometime early next week. With the nearby boundary, the forecast carries at least chance PoP for mainly diurnal convection through the period, though forced nighttime convection is possible Fri night into Sat AM, and again Sat night into Sunday.

Temps through the period look fairly consistent, with highs in the 80s to around 90, and lows mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Humidity levels will be highest on Sat, making it the least comfortable day in terms of heat index values, which should approach the mid 90s in parts of the region on Friday, and again on Sat. This may eventually necessitate a heat headline for urban NE NJ.
Generally stayed close to the national blend for this update.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR. Light and variable winds overnight. Winds pick up S-SW 10-15 kt Wed afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt possible.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 03Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR for much of the day, then MVFR or lower cond possible with any late day or nighttime showers/tstms.

Friday through Sunday: MVFR or lower cond possible at times with chance of showers/tstms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Southerly flow strengthens a bit on Wednesday with the high departing to the east and a weak frontal system approaching from the west. Marginal SCA gusts possible Wed aft/eve and Thu aft/eve at entrance to NY Harbor and western Great South Bay with coastal jet development. Ocean seas may approaching 5 ft in this area Thursday. Sub advisory conditions for the remainder of the waters.

HYDROLOGY
A series of fronts is expected to linger near the region late this week and through the weekend. While widespread hydrological issues do not appear likely at this time, showers and thunderstorms may lead to localized flood concerns.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a moderate risk for rip current development along local Atlantic facing beaches Wednesday and Thursday with an elevated southerly flow and surf between 2 and 4 ft.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Patchogue
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Tue -- 02:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:26 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:42 AM EDT     0.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:20 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:12 PM EDT     0.85 feet High Tide
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Patchogue, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Bellport
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Tue -- 02:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:53 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:03 AM EDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:47 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:33 PM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bellport, Bellport Bay, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

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