Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pelham Manor, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
High pressure centered to our SW remains stretched into the forecast area today. Clouds diminish during the latter half of this morning, but then increase this afternoon. Not as breezy as it has been for the past couple of days, but perhaps a few gusts 20-25 mph this morning. Deterministic NBM with minor adjustments looked good for high temperatures, which are expected to be about 5-8 degrees below normal.

Weakening low pressure shifts east from the Great Lakes towards northern New England tonight. A warm front will likely set up north of the area this evening. Warm advection/isentropic lift should help lower and thicken clouds. The lift is weak, but most of the model guidance signals potential for at least a broken band of light precip overnight. The best potential for this precip appears to be from the Lower Hudson Valley east-southeastward towards southern Connecticut and eastern Long Island. With that said, PoPs remain below the likely category. Thermal profiles are cold enough initially with wet bulbing for some light snow. However, models still show a warm nose around 3-6kft which probably allows for some sleet as the precip is coming to end late tonight. Warmer surface temperatures across portions of eastern Long Island bring rain into the mix. Portions of Southeast CT should stay all light snow with the colder air taking longer to dislodge across this area.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Dry Sunday as weak surface ridging occurs between the departing low to the NE and a broad area of low pressure well off to the west.
Breezy, but milder than the past several days with high temperatures above normal in the upper 40s to low 50s.

A warm front approaches from the SW Sunday night, in association with a broad area of low pressure stretching from the upper MS Valley to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. A weak area of low pressure center develops along this warm front as it passes through the forecast area Monday night. Moisture out ahead of the warm front heads our way with rain chances starting late Monday morning, but not becoming likely until Monday afternoon with rain remaining likely into Monday evening as the weak low center passing through. The rain should be primarily on the light to moderate side with a total of quarter of half inch of accumulation. Temperatures remain above normal on Monday in spite of the rain and clouds with highs ranging from the mid 40s inland to the low 50s for coastal areas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Amplified pattern shaping up for Tuesday through Wednesday.
Deepening upper level trough with strong SW to NE jet will strengthen a frontal system approaching the area. The associated warm front moves across Tuesday with an associated cold front moving across Wednesday night.

The timeframe of Tuesday through Wednesday expected to have rain across the region much of the time period. Wednesday night, the precipitation becomes more intermittent, more in the way of showers.
With a strong cold air advection behind the front, potential for mixing with snow and for some pure snow showers across the region before all precipitation comes to a close.

Dynamic forcing appears with enhanced lift Wednesday will have some potential for heavy rain. With how dynamic the flow is, model trends will have to be analyzed for any changes in trough positioning and low pressure. Also, if the low pressure deepens more than forecast, resulting in further tightening of the pressure gradient, this would make for higher winds than forecast. Current model consensus shows the low just starting its deepening process as it traverses over the local region Wednesday afternoon with more rapid deepening occurring once the low is north and east of the region Wednesday night into early Thursday.

Dry conditions expected thereafter through Friday as high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures above normal Tuesday through Wednesday and then below normal Wednesday night through Friday night.

AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
For today, the region remains between high pressure to the south and west and low pressure to the north and west. The low gets relatively closer to the area tonight.

For the TAF period, mainly VFR conditions are expected. With the approach of the low tonight, a few snow showers are possible with some sleet possible as well. CT terminals and KSWF have the better chance of seeing these snow showers with chances for MVFR. Low chance of brief IFR.

Winds remain gusty through much of the TAF period. Westerly flow near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt expected much of today as well as tonight into early Sunday.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional this morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: VFR. Wind gusts 20-25 kt, decreasing late in the afternoon. Wind direction SW, becoming more W late morning into afternoon.

Monday: MVFR to IFR at times in rain.

Tuesday: Increasing chance of rain late Tue into Tue night, expected to occur at night. MVFR to IFR at times.

Wednesday: MVFR to IFR. Possible sub-IFR at times. Rain day into early evening with rain and snow showers for the rest of the night. SW gusts 15-20 kt during day. W-NW gusts 15-20 kt at night. Some NW gusts up to 25-30 kt possible at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub advisory conditions for the non-ocean waters. Winds will however pick up tonight into Sunday as an area of low pressure passing to the north tightens the pressure gradient. SCA is therefore in effect late this evening through Sunday afternoon.

On the ocean, current SCA remains posted through noon today, but another SCA will likely be needed tonight into Sunday with the same reasoning for the other waters. Gusts may approach gale force, but not enough coverage or length of time for gale warning consideration at this time. SCA conds then continue on the ocean through Sunday night. Seas subside below 5 ft by Monday morning and likely remain below 5 ft through Monday night. Gusts may however briefly approach 25 kt as relatively weak area of low pressure passing through attempts to strengthen.

Aside from some lingering eastern ocean SCA conditions Tuesday into Tuesday night, below SCA conditions expected. Ocean SCA conditions become probable for Wednesday with all waters likely having SCA conditions Wednesday night.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic issues expected through Tuesday. Heavy rain possible at times on Wednesday with the potential for minor flooding in low lying and poor drainage areas. Model potential for PWATs of near 1.3 to 1.4 inches Wednesday, which would be above the 90th percentile and around the max for OKX sounding climatology for December 11th.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ350-353-355.