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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 139 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Today..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft this afternoon. Patchy fog this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..N winds around 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 139 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. The area will reside under weak high pressure today between frontal systems located to the north and south. Developing low pressure over the mid mississippi valley tonight heads up into the great lakes through Sunday, with a secondary low developing to the south of the area. Both lows lift north and east of the area Sunday night into Monday dragging a cold front through the area. High pressure returns for Tuesday. Another wave of low pressure develops off the middle atlantic coast Wednesday.

FXUS61 KOKX 021844 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 144 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
The area will reside under weak high pressure today between frontal systems located to the north and south. Developing low pressure over the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight heads up into the Great Lakes through Sunday, with a secondary low developing to the south of the area. Both lows lift north and east Sunday night into Monday, dragging a cold front through the area. High pressure returns for Tuesday. Another wave of low pressure develops off the Middle Atlantic coast Wednesday, followed by high pressure for Thursday. The next frontal system may approach next Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Just minor update to temps/dewpoints to better reflect latest observation trends. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

An amplifying shortwave trough over the Plains today will become a player later tonight into Sunday, but in the meantime the forecast area will reside under weak high pressure. A weak cold front sags south across the the Northeast today, while another frontal system offshore will be stalled to the south and east. After some morning clouds and fog, there very well could be some breaks in the cloud cover. For the time, highs are forecast to be mainly in the lower to mid 50s, but a few warmer readings are possible, especially if more sun is achieved. Wind will light W/SW.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
A confluent upper flow across eastern Canada, ahead of an amplifying trough over the mid section of the country, will allow for high pressure to remain in place across eastern Canada. This will allow a dissipating cold front to get close to the area tonight or pass just to the south. Lows will be mild in the 40s. At the same time, an amplifying shortwave trough lifts across the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight and across the Great Lakes on Sunday. At the surface, developing low pressure follows a similar track with a secondary low developing to the south of the area on Sunday. A deep SW flow aloft and strengthening low-level easterlies across the area will allow for a decent overrunning rain event starting late tonight and continuing through much of the day Sunday before drying out at night. Rainfall amounts across the area will average between 0.75-1.00". East winds and rain will keep temperatures on Sunday from getting any higher than the upper 40s inland and the lower 50s along the coast.

A double-barreled low structure from the eastern Great Lakes to east of New England will lift north and east Sunday night into Monday with drying conditions and a gusty west flow to follow.
Modest cold advection follows with temperatures returning to more seasonable levels.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure briefly returns for the forecast area Tuesday. A weak surface low dives south from the Northern Plains into the mid-West Monday night, while the flow aloft within the upper trough begins to amplify Tuesday into Tuesday night as energy is progged to dive southeastward towards the coast. Additionally, a weak cold front or surface trough moves through Tuesday. This surface feature will move through dry. The surface low weakens as it passes south and west, with a secondary low developing off shore by Tuesday night. A large majority of the global models and ensembles keep the secondary low pressure development well south and east off the Middle Atlantic coast late Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, there are some ensembles members that have an inverted trough near the area or the low close enough to support a slight chance (20 percent) PoP. Based on the currently modeled pattern, the upper trough amplification occurs too far offshore for any impacts to the region. Temperatures Tuesday will be in the lower to middle 40s and then only upper 30s to middle 40s on Wednesday.

The mean upper trough should push offshore later Wednesday into Thursday. The deterministic runs diverge for the end of the week, but ensemble means indicate a near zonal flow aloft with some potential of a frontal system to approach on Friday. The forecast remains dry with surface high pressure largely in control. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s Thursday trend closer to normal on Friday.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure remains north of the area while lows to the south slowly approach going into tonight and move southeast of Long Island Sunday.

Outside of KSWF where sub-IFR conditions are occurring, most terminals have improved to MVFR to VFR as lower clouds have scattered out.

However, clouds and fog are expected to redevelop later tonight with rain returning to the region. The rain continues through Sunday. VFR conditions lower to MVFR late this evening and IFR for overnight.
IFR expected to continue through much, if not all, of the remainder of the TAF period. Occasional sub-IFR will be possible late tonight into Sunday.

Winds will be 10 kts or less through tonight and then 10-15 kt are expected Sunday. Gusts up to 20 kt are forecast on Sunday, especially for coastal terminals. Wind direction SW this afternoon, variable tonight, and then more E-NE late tonight into Sunday.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of when MVFR and IFR redevelop could be off by 1-3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: Rain ending. MVFR to IFR improving late.

Monday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt, becoming more NW at night.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. N-NW winds G15-20kt afternoon into night.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90



MARINE
SCA issued for the ocean waster for Sunday into Sunday night.

While a weak W/SW flow will prevail across the waters today, guidance shows a period of about 6-8 hours where a 5 ft southerly swell could enter the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet. If this occurs, it looks to be mainly across the outer waters and would be during the afternoon and early evening hours before subsiding back below 5 ft. For the time, since the seas are marginal, have held off on the issuance of a SCA. However, a strengthening easterly flow late tonight into Sunday will likely bring SCA conditions to the waters on Sunday.
Winds will then shift to W/NW Sunday night with SCA conditions possibly lingering into Monday.

5 ft waves and 25 kt gusts are possible for the ocean waters Monday night as a surface trough moves through. The 5 ft waves will mainly be for the outer ocean waters. Thereafter, sub-SCA conditions expected on all waters through Thursday.

HYDROLOGY
0.75-1" is expected late tonight into Sunday night. There are no hydrologic concerns given this is a relatively long duration event.

No hydrologic impacts are expected next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for ANZ355.

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George Washington Bridge
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Sat -- 12:32 AM EST     3.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:58 AM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:36 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:40 PM EST     3.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:53 PM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

George Washington Bridge, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

George Washington Bridge (Hudson River)
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Sat -- 02:44 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:06 AM EST     -1.70 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:40 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:36 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:07 PM EST     1.50 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:14 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:43 PM EST     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:40 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

George Washington Bridge (Hudson River), New York Current, knots

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